Bundeskanzler

Chancellor of the Federal

Republic of Germany

Freidrich Merz

Willy-Brandt-Starße 1 10557 Berlin

Your Excellency,

For nearly two centuries, the world’s democracies have, with very few exceptions, refrained from fighting each other. Instead, they have stood shoulder to shoulder in the face of the forces of extreme, dark religious fanaticism – forces that despise freedom, reject tolerance, and seek to replace democratic governance with terror and coercion.

The fruits of such fanaticism have been bitter and bloody. We saw them during the Second Intifada, when the Palestinian Authority, led by Yasser Arafat, initiated violence that claimed the lives of 1,300 Jewish and Arab Israelis. And we experienced them again on October 7, 2023, when Israel endured the single deadliest day in its modern history: 1,200 Jewish and Arab Israelis were brutally murdered in an unprovoked and barbaric assault by Hamas. These were not acts of political protest – they were acts of terror, with the stated goal of the annihilation of Israel as a democratic state and the destruction of its people.

Israel today is a robust democracy. Like all democracies, it is home to passionate political debate between the government and its opposition. Such debate is a strength, not a weakness – it is the lifeblood of democratic resilience.

The Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF) is a non-political 50,000 member organization of which many are retired Generals and senior officers from the Army, Navy, Air Force, intelligence, police and security services professionals. Our work is focused exclusively on matters of national security. We are united not by partisan allegiance, but by a common mission: safeguarding the security, sovereignty, and continued existence of the State of Israel.

It is in this context that we must express – with both respect and urgency – that your recent decision to halt the sale of certain weapons to Israel represents a serious misstep. It appears you have been drawn into an internal Israeli political dispute – a trap – rather than basing your position on Israel’s actual policy as approved by its cabinet.

Despite the media spin, the official cabinet decision does not call for the occupation of Gaza for settlement purposes. Rather, it affirms three principles that your government has publicly supported in the past, and continues to support today:

1. Hamas can no longer be allowed to rule Gaza.
2. Hamas must be disarmed and can no longer be allowed to threaten Israel.
3. All Israeli hostages – men, women, and children – who are being starved and held in inhumane conditions, must be released immediately, along with those hostages who they have already killed.

These objectives are not only consistent with Israel’s right to self-defense under international law, they align fully with the moral and strategic goals shared by democracies worldwide – including Germany.

However, by halting these weapons sales, Germany sends an unintended and deeply dangerous signal: that mass terror, hostage-taking, and the deliberate use of human shields is an effective path to political achievement. Make no mistake – this decision will be celebrated as a victory by Hamas, both in Gaza and abroad. It will embolden not only the leadership of Hamas, but also their sympathizers in the Middle East and in Europe, where extremist networks are already working to undermine democratic societies from within.

The weapons you have chosen to withhold are not tools of aggression; they are tools of defense and precision. They enable Israel to neutralize threats with minimal harm to civilians – a capability that is critical in a conflict where Hamas has built its military infrastructure within and underneath the civilian population. Reducing Israel’s access to such means will not save lives; it will prolong the conflict, increase suffering on all sides, and make eventual peace more elusive.

Germany and Israel share a unique and historic relationship, forged in the aftermath of the Holocaust and anchored in mutual commitment to democratic values, human dignity, and the rule of law. This relationship has been tested in the past and has endured because it is based not on convenience, but on principle. Your call for a partial arms embargo risks weakening this foundation at a time when both our nations – and all democracies – must be united in the face of global instability.

In such a moment, leadership requires sophistication. It requires resisting the traps of political misrepresentation. It requires making decisions that strengthen the alliance of free nations, rather than handing propaganda victories to those who oppose everything our societies stand for.

We therefore urge you to reconsider your decision – not only for the sake of Israel’s security, but for the credibility and unity of the democratic world. The message you send today will be heard far beyond Berlin and Jerusalem. It will be read in Tehran, in Damascus in Beirut, in Gaza – and in capitals across Europe and the Middle East. Let that message be one of resolve, solidarity, and clarity: that democracies will never abandon each other in the face of terror.

We remain committed to dialogue and cooperation and would welcome the opportunity to engage with your office to discuss how Germany and Israel can work together to protect innocent lives and advance lasting security.

Respectfully,

Ret. Brigadier General Amir Avivi

Ret. Major General Gershon Hacohen

Ret. Lieutenant Colonel Yaron Buskila

Ret. Major General Jerry Gershon

Ret. Vice Admiral Eliezer Marum

Former Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon

Ret. Lieutenant Colonel Mordechai Yogev

Ret. Major General Harel Knafo

Ret. Captain Navy Ezra Mena

Ret. Brigadier General Navy Alex Eyal

Ret. Colonel Gidi Levanon

Ret. Brigadier General Erez Winner

Ret. Major General Meir Klifi

Ret. Head of Department in Shin Bet  Yossi Amarosi

Ret. Brigadier General Oren Solomon

Ret. Supreme in Shin Bet Moshe Puzyalev

Ret. Head of Counter-intelligence Department

Shin Bet Yaakov A

Ret. Senior Mossad officer Jack

Ret. Ambassador Eli Yerushalmi

Ret. Brigadier General  Giora Martonovits M.D.

Ret. Ambassador Eli Yerushalmi

Ret. Colonel Shin Bet Amit Assa

Ret. Colonel Tal Braun

Ret. Brigadier General in Police Dubi Yung

Ret. Ambassador Daniel Saban

Ret. Lieutenant Colonel Boaz Kukia

Ret. Brigadier General Nati Cohen

Ret. Colonel Oren Zini

Ret. Brigadier General  Yossi Kuperwasser

Ret. Brigadier General Mossad General “M”

Ret. Air Force  Abraham Assael

Professor Ilan Reiss

Ret. Lieutenant Colonel Maurice Hirsch

Ret. Ambassdor Yoram Ettinger

Ret. Brigadier General Moshe Peled

Ret. Lieutenant Colonel Tal Nir

Ret. Colonel Yoram Levran

Ret. Superintendent Police Shosh Raban

הפוסט Letter to the German Chancellor, Mr. Friedrich Merz הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

A unilateral recognition of Palestinian statehood by France or any European country would be a grave strategic and moral error, especially in the wake of Hamas’s October 7, 2023 massacres of Israeli civilians. Such a move, far from advancing peace, would have dangerous consequences for Europe, the Middle East, and the world:

• Rewarding Terrorism: Unilateral recognition would be perceived as rewarding Hamas’s terror campaign. Coming so soon after the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, a recognition now signals that violence and atrocities can yield political gains.
• Undermining Peace: By bypassing negotiations, unilateral recognition undercuts any notion of a peace process. It grants statehood as a symbolic gesture while disincentivizing the Palestinian leadership to meet any meaningful requirements or carrying out reforms such as renouncing terrorism or compromise, pushing a genuine solution further out of reach.
• Fracturing Western Unity: This step would risk undermining European unity and drive another wedge between Europe and the United States, damaging the transatlantic alliance at a time of global uncertainty when it is most needed. It also subverts the notion of an EU consensus on foreign policy, as stipulated by its founding treaties.
• Empowering Radical Islamism: Handing Islamist radicals an apparent victory would fuel and energize global jihadist momentum that Europe is already struggling to contain, and directly risk domestic stability in Europe and the United States. This clear and present threat was detailed in the recently leaked report about the Muslim Brotherhood in France.
• Putting Jewish communities in Europe and worldwide at real risk: In an already tough environment where anti-Semitic incidents are skyrocketing post-October 7th, evidence shows that bestowing an apparent victory to Hamas and radical Islamists over Israel is likely to pour fuel on that fire, and embolden anti-Semitism at the expense of the safety of Jewish communities, claiming a heavy cost on the already heavily-threatened diaspora.
• Unilateral action imposed by third parties by fiat undercuts the demand from Israel to refrain from taking unilateral action itself, therefore paving the path for Jerusalem to take steps such as enacting sovereignty over the territories, which European countries urged to avoid.
• Domestic Appeasement of Extremist Factions Over Strategy: The push to recognize “Palestine” seems to be driven less by rational policy and more by succumbing to domestic political pressures. Some leaders seek to appease radicalized constituencies and mass protest movements, mistaking emotional, short-term placation for consistent statecraft. This weakness would be well perceived and exploited by radical jihadist elements in Europe and worldwide and risks favoring temporary appeasement at the cost of long-term security.

European leaders must firmly reject this neo-colonial approach of imposing outcomes from afar, and favor dialogue with Israel and a strong stance against Hamas and radical Islamism. Unilateral recognition will not hold; it would constitute an empty gesture, emotional gesture and moral grandstanding that would only weaken Europe’s credibility and security on the world stage. Instead, European countries and the EU should recommit to principled diplomacy by leading dialogue with Israel, and making real requirements from the Palestinian Authority and the Palestinian people to reject terrorism, rather than rewarding terror or indulging in symbolic politics. Only by upholding moral principles and strategic clarity can Europe truly contribute to a just and lasting peace.

Unilateral Recognition of Palestinian Statehood: A Dangerous Misstep for Europe

Several European governments have expressed their intent to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state, spurred by recent campaigns in France. Yet such a one-sided move, especially now, in the wake of Hamas’s October 7, 2023 massacre in Israel – would be a grave strategic error. Such recognition of Palestinian statehood at this time would undermine Western security interests, reward terrorism, embolden radical Islamism, and destabilize prospects for peace. It also highlights the troubling domestic motivations behind these recognition bids, from the appeasement of radicalized constituencies to a resurgence of anti-Western Islamist influence in Europe. European leaders must remember they are not colonial powers; imposing outcomes in the Israeli–Palestinian conflict without negotiations not only smacks of hypocrisy but also risks severe blowback for Europe’s own stability and will highlight disagreements within Europe at a critical moment when unity is essential. The following analysis outlines seven core reasons why the recognition is dangerously misguided, backed by recent reports and expert testimony. The message to policymakers is clear: proceed with caution and strategic foresight – not emotional politics or moral grandstanding.

Sending the Message that “Terrorism Pays”

Unilateral recognition now would send a perverse signal: Terrorism yields political rewards. Israel has warned that European recognition of a Palestinian state at this moment will be viewed as a reward for Hamas’s October 7 atrocities. Indeed, Hamas’s bloody massacre of some 1,200 Israeli men, women, and children on Oct. 7, 2023 was the worst terrorist pogrom against Jews since the Holocaust. It is worth noting that dozens of French, British, American, and citizens of other nationalities were among the victims of that attack. If, shortly after that atrocity, European states grant the Palestinians a diplomatic prize long sought by Hamas, it validates the terrorists’ strategy. Even U.S. officials firmly oppose any unilateral Palestinian statehood push, calling it “a reward for Hamas’ shocking attack on Israel” .
Recent Palestinian public opinion only underscores this dangerous narrative. In the months following the war, “three-quarters of respondents said they thought the attention from the war could lead to recognition of Palestinian statehood” . Hamas’s popularity in Judea and Samaria surged after the October 7 massacre, with polls showing2,8 a majority of Palestinians endorsing the attacks. Analysts warn that European recognition now would “validate the dangerous narrative that mass murder brings diplomatic reward,”8 reinforcing the belief that violence, not compromise, is the path to political gains. In short, it would incentivize more terrorism, not just against Israel but potentially against the West in general. The lesson would be clear: extremism and brutality pay off.

Undermining U.S. Interests and Transatlantic Unity

Unilateral recognition also threatens to fracture the Western alliance and undermine the U.S. leadership in the Middle East. The United States has explicitly warned its European allies against this move. Washington has lobbied the UK, France and others in private, “unequivocally rejecting any effort to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state”, according to U.S. Embassy statements. American officials argue that bypassing negotiations now would undercut a coordinated transatlantic approach and harm any prospects for a genuine peace settlement. Going rogue on Palestinian statehood would thus drive a wedge between Europe and the U.S., at a time when unity is vital in confronting shared challenges from Islamist terrorism through the Russia-Ukraine war to China’s ambitions toward Taiwan and Iran’s aggression.
Even within Europe, the issue is divisive – raising the risk of EU disunity on a critical foreign policy matter. Several key EU members (including Germany, the Czech Republic, Hungary and others) have voiced strong opposition to unilateral recognition. Germany’s government, for instance, has warned against precipitous moves and stressed support for a negotiated two-state outcome. This split highlights a broader point: such unilateralism erodes transatlantic and intra-European cohesion, weakening the West’s collective leverage. Instead of presenting a united front, Europe would be undermining its closest ally, the United States, and sending mixed signals that adversaries are sure to exploit.

Sign of European Hypocrisy and One-Sided Diplomacy

The unilateral recognition campaign is also fundamentally hypocritical. European leaders frequently insist that Israel cannot impose unilateral outcomes – for example, cautioning Jerusalem against dictating Gaza’s future or enacting sovereignty over the Judea and Samaria territories (“West Bank”) without agreement. “Regarding Gaza, it is not up to the Israelis to decide… the future governance of the Gaza Strip,” one French official declared recently, emphasizing that Palestinians must have a say in their own fate. Yet those same European actors now propose to impose a Palestinian state from the outside without any negotiations with Israel, or even with the Palestinians’ elected representatives. Such a move flagrantly contradicts the EU’s professed commitment to a negotiated two-state solution. As one Reuters analysis observed, President Macron’s critics argue recognition “should come as part of negotiations towards a two-state solution – not before” . By acting unilaterally, Europe undercuts the very diplomatic process it claims to champion.
Moreover, this approach echoes a colonial-era mindset, wherein European powers presume to redraw Middle East maps by fiat. European leaders are not colonial viceroys, and they must stop behaving as if they can arbitrarily confer statehood or dictate final-status terms to Israel and the Palestinians. Imposing outcomes “from above”, however well-intentioned, ignores the on-the-ground realities and the complex security considerations Israel faces. It also demeans Palestinian agency by suggesting their statehood is a gift to be bestowed by Europe, rather than something to be earned through mutual compromise and institution-building. In sum, unilateral recognition is paternalistic and tone-deaf diplomacy. It would strain Europe’s credibility by revealing a double standard: one set of rules for Israeli actions, another for European.
It may be useful to add that European Union treaties mandate that any foreign policy decisions shall be adopted only by consensus, by a unanimous vote: “Decisions under this Chapter shall be taken by the European Council and the Council acting unanimously” (TEU – Treaty on the European Union, article 31(1)). This includes CSDP – Common Security and Defense Policy resolutions – as well as military expeditions and recognition of countries. Article 22 further stipulates that “the European Council, acting unanimously, shall define the Union’s overall foreign and security policy objectives and shall address such policy to the institutions of the Union.” This unanimity has become the hallmark of the European project, and undermining this solidarity and common action can, by logical extension, risk the architecture of the EU as a whole.

Undercutting Any Peace Prospects and Removing Incentives for Reform

Far from advancing peace, premature recognition would likely destabilize any future negotiations – by removing incentives for the Palestinian side to make the hard choices needed for a durable agreement that will lead to peace and stability. As long as the promise of statehood is held out as a reward contingent on renouncing terror and negotiating peace with Israel, Palestinian leaders have pressure to reform. But if that reward is granted upfront, it would marginalize negotiations and solidify extremist positions. Why would the Palestinian Authority (PA) crack down on terrorism or curb its virulent anti-Israel incitement if it can gain international recognition regardless?
“Rewarding the PA with recognition would signal to Palestinian leaders that reforms are unnecessary, and that their choice to enable and fund terror, hate education, and corruption is no obstacle to international legitimacy,” warns analyst Asher Fredman. Indeed, even under heavy U.S., Israeli, and even EU pressure, the PA has rejected their demands to discontinue paying stipends to convicted terrorists and end the glorification of violence in its media and textbooks. Granting statehood now would torpedo these reform efforts, effectively telling the PA it can continue business as usual and still enjoy the fruits of statehood.
The consequences for peace would be dire. Unilateral recognition “would also fatally undermine prospects for a negotiated peace,” Fredman observes. It would confirm to Palestinian hardliners that they “can make political gains without renouncing violence or abandoning the extremist goal of erasing Israel from the map.” In Israel, the move would demolish what little trust remains – especially after October 7 – that diplomacy can deliver security. Israeli society, still recovering from Hamas’s onslaught, is unwilling to concede territory or sovereignty on the basis of empty promises. In the end, without Hamas’s defeat and a fundamental change on the Palestinian side any talk of handing over strategic land for a Palestinian state will be “flatly rejected” by Israelis, especially since a 106 out of 120 majority in the Knesset flatly rejected the notion of a Palestinian state imposed by foreign power, reflecting a clear majority in the Israeli public. In other words, premature recognition doesn’t bring peace closer; it pushes it further away, by rewarding intransigence and poisoning the well of negotiations.
The Palestinian Authority, not to mention Hamas, does not meet the requirements that the European Union itself put together, does not respect minority rights nor meets any of the meaningful criteria set by the international community. Circumventing these principles sets a dangerous precedent to future cases in Taiwan, but also in the heart of Europe, in regions that have already expressed willingness to disengage and declare independence, such as Catalonia.

Domestic Pressures: Appeasing Radicalized Constituencies

Why, then, are some European politicians so eager to pursue this risky path? The answer lies largely in domestic politics – specifically, the perceived need to appease restive Muslim and far-left constituencies at home. Across Europe, the Israel–Hamas war has ignited tumultuous street demonstrations, many dominated by radical Islamist and ultraleft agitators. France, Spain, Ireland, Norway and others at the forefront of the recognition push “are not doing so in a rational political process, but due to domestic political pressure”, a Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs report finds . In France (home to ~6.8 million Muslims, ~10% of the population), President Macron initially voiced solidarity with Israel after Oct. 7 – but “very quickly shifted gears” and floated Palestinian state recognition “in the midst of the fighting”, largely to quell anger on the streets. The backdrop was stark: a 400% spike in anti-Semitic incidents in France after the war began, banned pro-Palestinian protests erupting in Paris anyway, and a far-left party (La France Insoumise) surging in popularity among Muslim voters5. President Macron, seeing the political center losing its hold, calculated that offering a nod to Palestinian aspirations might defuse tensions and outflank the extremists. In essence, unilateral recognition became an act of domestic appeasement – a symbolic concession to placate a volatile constituency.
A similar story played out in Spain. The Socialist-led Sánchez government, reliant on the hard-left Podemos/Sumar party, officially recognized in a Palestinian state in April 2024 – a decision driven “not only by ideological commitment, but also as a direct response to growing public pressure”5. For months, mass rallies in over 50 Spanish cities had thundered “Stop the genocide” in Gaza; universities saw strikes and demands to sever ties with Israel. The far-left deputy prime minister even led chants of “From the river to the sea” – a slogan effectively calling for Israel’s elimination, already recognized as anti-Semitic rhetoric by the US Congress and the Anti-Defamation League – which earned international condemnation but boosted her standing among Muslim communities. The message to Spain’s leaders was clear, as in France: align with the protests or risk political backlash. Recognizing “Palestine” was first and foremost, a domestic political maneuver.
Even in Germany, which has not joined the recognition bandwagon, domestic pressures are mounting. Germany’s 5.5 million Muslims have made their voices heard with large pro-Palestinian protests in Berlin and other cities, sometimes accompanied by spiking antisemitic acts (a 320% increase) and even attacks on Jewish institutions. Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz, while more cautious, felt compelled to endorse the “need for a Palestinian state” and increase aid to Gaza – moves seen as attempts to address Muslim public opinion. German politicians are keenly aware of the electoral math: Muslim voters far outnumber Jewish voters, and alienating the former can carry a heavy price. (They recall how in 2016 the ruling party lost tens of thousands of Turkish-German votes after recognizing the Armenian genocide).
In sum, electoral demography and fear of unrest seem to be driving European leaders to take positions that align with radicalized segments of their populations. Unilateral recognition of Palestinian state has become a symbolic sop to the “Arab street” of Europe – a way to signal empathy with Muslim communities, even at the cost of undermining allies and long-term security.

Emboldening Radical Islamism and Rising Antisemitism in Europe

There is also a broader, more alarming context: a wave of global jihadism and anti-Semitism is sweeping through Europe, and unilateral recognition risks pouring fuel on that fire. The Hamas-Israel war has catalyzed not only peaceful protests but also extremist agitation across European cities. In many demonstrations since October 7, crowds have chanted slogans calling for Israel’s destruction while waving Hamas and Hezbollah flags. Far-left activists have marched alongside Islamist groups, amplifying calls for intifada (violent uprising). European officials fear that these mass mobilizations could turn into “hard-to-control Muslim riots such as the ones that occurred in the past in French banlieues”, as one analysis notes. The specter of urban unrest, even outright clashes with authorities, is very real. This helps explain why European governments are so anxious to show they are “listening” to Muslim grievances. But appeasing the street with diplomatic gestures is a double-edged sword: it may encourage the Islamist narrative that Europe can be cowed by force. As radical preachers across the Middle East openly declared this fall, the struggle isn’t only about Israel – it’s about challenging the West. Hamas’s former leader called for a global jihad “Day of Rage” on October 13, urging Muslims worldwide to “take to the streets” and apply jihad against Israel and its supporters. In a recorded message, he told followers this was “a moment for the application of jihad”. Such incitement had immediate consequences: synagogues were attacked in Berlin, an Israeli diplomat was stabbed in Beijing, and an antisemitic mob in the North Caucasus went hunting for Jewish travelers at an airport. Europe is not immune to this surge in jihadist fervor; on the contrary, it has become a principal theater for it.
European authorities are well aware of the Islamist radicalization within their borders. France’s Interior Ministry recently sounded the alarm over the Muslim Brotherhood’s clandestine influence, finding that the Brotherhood has gone to “great lengths to push its fundamentalist agenda across France and Europe.” The confidential report, leaked in May 2025, describes a “long-term Islamist plan to infiltrate state institutions and change them from within,” eroding secular society from the inside. It warns of a “subversive” project funded by foreign actors (like Qatar) aimed at influencing European policymakers on issues like immigration and the Palestinian cause. Indeed, Islamists have already “infiltrated the EU on multiple levels – in politics, academia”, and even become advisors to European institutions on security and religious matters. This is not paranoid conjecture; it’s documented by Western intelligence. In France, authorities have responded with tough measures – expelling radical imams who preach antisemitic hate or jihadist propaganda. Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin has deported clerics deemed “radical” on an expedited basis, vowing “firmness is the rule”. These steps underscore the reality that Islamist extremism is viewed as a domestic threat to national cohesion and public safety in Europe.
In this climate, such recognition, could embolden the very extremists Europe is struggling to contain. Islamist ideologues would celebrate it as a victory for their cause – proof that relentless agitation (and even violence) can force Western concessions. Anti-Semitic actors would feel vindicated, seeing European governments symbolically siding with the “anti-Israel” narrative even as Jewish communities in Europe face intimidation. Already, the rate of anti-Jewish incidents has skyrocketed in countries like France and the UK since the war began. Over 1,150 antisemitic acts were recorded in France in 2023 – nearly quadruple the previous year. More than 180,000 people marched in Paris in November 2023 to protest this rising anti-Semitism. Europe’s leaders should be doubling down on protecting their Jewish citizens and reasserting zero tolerance for hate. Yet granting unilateral recognition – essentially endorsing the maximalist Palestinian stance at a time of heightened anti-Jewish fervor – sends the opposite signal. It would reward the forces of intolerance and aggression, while betraying moderate voices (both Israeli and Palestinian) who seek genuine coexistence. In the long run, European security is interwoven with Israel’s fight against jihadism. As one Italian senator starkly put it, “If Israel falls, Europe is next. Then North America.” Israel is on the frontlines against groups that ultimately loathe the West and its values. Undercutting Israel by prematurely recognizing a terror-tainted Palestinian pseudo-state is not enlightened policy – it is strategic suicide.

Conclusion: Strategic Patience, Not Reckless Symbolism

European policymakers face a pivotal choice. Unilateral recognition of Palestinian statehood may offer a momentary feel-good illusion of “doing something”, but its costs would far outweigh any benefits. It would fracture Western unity, embolden terrorists, and sacrifice long-term peace prospects on the altar of short-term politics. In truth, such recognition “is not brave diplomacy. It is reckless virtue-signaling, disconnected from reality and blind to consequences.” Europe gains nothing from abandoning its principled stance that a two-state solution must be achieved through negotiations, mutual recognition, and robust security guarantees. To truly help Palestinians, European leaders should use their influence to press for real reforms in the Palestinian Authority – ending incitement and corruption, cutting off terror financing (“pay-for-slay”), and fostering a culture of peace. At the same time, they should stand firm with the United States and moderate Arab states in insisting that Hamas’s jihadist menace be defeated, not politically rewarded. Demonstrating that terrorism leads to defeat, not reward, is critical to changing the calculus of all actors involved.
Europe’s own moral authority and security depend on getting this right. Rather than acting like patronizing colonial arbiters, EU leaders must recognize that imposed solutions won’t hold. Peace can only emerge from the hard work of the parties themselves. Unilateral recognition now would not bring Palestinians closer to genuine statehood – it would likely create a failed, terror-sheltering statelet that imperils both Israel and the West. The West’s strength has always come from unity around shared democratic values and a refusal to appease extremists. By holding the line against ill-timed recognition, Europe can demonstrate true strategic foresight and moral clarity. In the volatile post-October 7 world, that resolve is more important than ever. Europe should align with its transatlantic partners, not with the forces of jihadism, and help lay the groundwork for a real and lasting peace – one based on negotiation, security, and mutual coexistence, not on unilateral gambits that reward terrorism. In the final analysis, standing firm against unilateral Palestinian recognition is not anti-peace; it is anti-illusion. It is a stance against rewarding terror and supporting a more stable, secure future for Israelis, Palestinians, and Europeans alike.

הפוסט Unilateral Recognition of Palestinian Statehood: A Dangerous Misstep for Europe הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

On behalf of Israel’s Defense and Security Forum, we extend our deepest gratitude for your bold and courageous decision to take decisive action against Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Your leadership, combined with the flawless execution by the United States Air Force, has made America, Israel, and the entire free world significantly safer.

Your actions have reaffirmed the enduring principle that peace is achieved through strength. The operation in Iran sent a clear and unmistakable message to both allies and adversaries: America is back. As retired and reserve senior commanders from all branches of Israel’s defense establishment, we recognize the extraordinary level of coordination and cooperation between our militaries that was on full display during this historic mission. Thanks to your leadership, the U.S.-Israel alliance is stronger than ever.

As warriors, we understand that lasting peace is forged through a combination of diplomatic success and battlefield resolve. In that spirit, your invitation to our Prime Minister to meet at the White House is as vital to regional stability as the deployment of the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator that neutralized the Fordow nuclear facility.

There are plentiful challenges ahead, but they all coalesce under a coherent theme: in order to secure the expansion of the Abraham Accords, and stabilize the Middle East while ensuring Israel’s security for generations to come, Israel must decisively win over Hamas in Gaza.

A comprehensive resolution in Gaza must include:

• The unconditional release of all hostages
• The elimination or expulsion of all Hamas leadership to a third-party state
• Full operational control of Gaza by Israel, leading to a long-term, Hamas-free governance structure

We support your bold and humane initiative to establish Israeli-American Humanitarian Islands, providing safe zones for Gaza’s civilian population and providing relocation pathways to third countries. Gaza must be demilitarized, de-radicalized, and transformed into a region that poses no threat to Israel’s security.

Regarding Iran, we urge the establishment of a zero-tolerance policy toward any attempt to revive its nuclear program. This includes:

• Preventing the reconstitution of its ballistic missile arsenal
• Dismantling the Quds Force and its regional proxies
• Leading a joint U.S.-Israel campaign to economically isolate Iran through crippling sanctions and asset freezes if it fails to comply

Your decisive actions have opened historic opportunities to reimagine the Middle East as a region of stability and prosperity. The potential expansion of the Abraham Accords could unlock unprecedented energy and trade routes (IMEC, I2U2), offering a future once thought unimaginable.

However, we must caution against any initiative that would lead to the recognition of a Palestinian state. The Palestinian Authority continues to incentivize terrorism, including attacks on American citizens, has refused to reform its anti-American and anti-Semitic textbooks, and has shown no intention of pursuing peaceful coexistence. Recognition of a Palestinian state in the aftermath of October 7 would be viewed as a ‘prize for terrorism’ and would encourage the use of terror activities as a means to achieve elusive political goals, likely leading to an upsurge in terrorism around the world. As we have conveyed to Prime Minister Netanyahu, such recognition would irreparably damage Israel’s security and undermine the progress we have made together.

Mr. President, your unwavering support is one of Israel’s greatest strategic assets. A failure to achieve a decisive victory would embolden radical Islam, put the stability of Jordan and Egypt in jeopardy, and build upon the perceived success of the horrific October 7 massacre.

Israel is committed to winning this war—and we are grateful to know that America, under your leadership, stands with us in the pursuit of a more safe, free and prosperous world.

Together we can make the Middle East Great Again.

With Deepest Appreciation,

Brigadier General (Res.) Amir Avivi                     Lieutenant Colonel (Res.) Yaron Buskila

Major General (Res.) Gershon Hacohen             Major General (Res.) Yitzhak Jerry Gershon

Major General (Res.) Yiftach Ron Tal                  Brigadier General (Res.) Oren Solomon

Brigadier General (Res.) Hasson Hasson            Colonel (Res.) Dr. Ronen Itsik

Major General M, fmr senior Mossad officer     Brg Gen J, fmr senior Mossad commander

Lieutenant Colonel (Res.) Shosh Raban             Lieutenant Colonel (Res.) Adv. Maurice Hirsch

Adv. Yifa Segal                                                   Or Yissachar

On behalf of the IDSF’s 50,000 members

Cc: Prime Minister Netanyahu, Ambassador Mike Huckabee

הפוסט Letter to President of the United States Mr. Donald Trump הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

First, we wish to strengthen you as you embark on your diplomatic and national mission to the United States, Israel’s crucial strategic ally. These historic times demand the people of Israel To transcend the magnitude of time. As commanders in the IDF and across Israel’s security agencies, we deeply respect the sacrifice made by our fallen soldiers who secured Israel’s safety. This heavy price reminds us that the people of Israel and its commanders expect a decisive victory in the war against Hamas in Gaza. We cannot accept a scenario where Hamas remains in Gaza after the war, lest we find ourselves directly on a path towards Hamas’s rehabilitation and, God forbid, another October 7. We must rectify this, and we must not end this war by turning back the clock.

Mr. Prime Minister, these are crucial days for Israel and for the Middle East. Your decision to lead the campaign to remove the Iranian threat has reshaped regional dynamics and achieved significant outcomes. Especially now, with momentum and strength on our side and Hamas under internal pressure having lost substantial backing, we must achieve a decisive victory, rewrite the rules of the game, and move toward a completely transformed regional reality.

Our guiding principles for Gaza are clear: the return of all hostages through military pressure and a comprehensive deal; elimination or exile of all senior Hamas leaders; relocating the population into humanitarian zones within open areas, with reinforced Israeli-American GHF mechanisms; and offering relocation to a third country for any Gaza resident wishing to leave. At the war’s conclusion, the IDF will temporarily control Gaza, paving the way for reconstruction conditional upon demilitarization and de-radicalization.

Partial agreements, which require the IDF to pause its momentum, withdraw again from secured and cleared territories, and allow Hamas recovery time to reorganize and prepare better for renewed conflict, are directly opposed to the reality we aim to establish. Such compromises will inevitably lead to further bloodshed, costing the lives of our best sons and possibly even the lives of hostages.

Regarding Iran, Israel must remain vigilant and advocate alongside the United States for an enforcement mechanism ensuring the regime does not reactivate its nuclear program, following the “Lebanese model.” Israel should leverage diplomatic momentum led by the United States with European participation, demanding zero uranium enrichment, dismantlement of missile programs, and cessation of proxy cell funding, including dismantling the Quds Force. Concurrently, world powers should impose sanctions, conditioned upon behavioral change, with breaches triggering a snap-back mechanism including asset seizures.

The demonstration of strength toward Iran opens unprecedented regional opportunities, removing significant barriers for pragmatic states to collaborate with Israel under American sponsorship. Peace with Saudi Arabia will constitute a major security asset and foster substantial regional economic opportunities, including IMEC initiatives, gas and oil pipelines, and significant investments. At the same time, any demands to establish a Palestinian state must be entirely rejected, focusing instead on an emirate-based solution (akin to the Jabari Plan in Hebron), weakening the Palestinian Authority, and achieving a decisive resolution in Gaza.

In the northern arena, opportunities should be examined for expanding the Abraham Accords to Syria and Lebanon. It must be clear that recognition of Israeli sovereignty in the Golan Heights is essential, alongside maintaining buffer zones, preventing strategic arms build-up, and restricting Turkish influence. In Lebanon, Israel must ensure continued presence in key areas and formulate a coordinated plan to disarm Hezbollah, alongside persistent nationwide enforcement.

Mr. Prime Minister, we support you wholeheartedly in this vital mission and wish you success on behalf of the 50,000 members of the IDSF movement and the entire people of Israel.

Respectfully,

Brig. Gen. (Res.) Amir Avivi
Lt. Col. (Res.) Yaron Buskila
Maj. Gen. (Res.) Gershon Hacohen
Maj. Gen. (Res.) Yiftach Ron-Tal
Col. (Res.) Ronen Itsik
A., former senior Mossad official
Brig. Gen. (Res.) Oren Solomon
Brig. Gen. (Res.) Hasson Hasson
G., former Mossad commander
Lt. Col. (Res.) Shosh Raban
Or Yissachar, on behalf of 50,000 (IDSF) Bithonistim members

הפוסט Letter to Prime Minister Netanyahu הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

Overview

• President Donald Trump predicted a ceasefire could be achieved in Gaza “within the next week”, as Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister, Ron Dermer is set to visit Washington for talks on both Gaza and Iran.
• The US has reportedly notified regional mediators that it is actively pressuring Prime Minister Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza
• Seven soldiers from the combat engineering Unit from Battalion 605 were killed when a Hamas militant threw an explosive device into their armored personnel carrier.
• IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir declared Iran is no longer a nuclear threshold state after the Israeli and US strikes.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, announced that Iran will not allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to install cameras at its nuclear facilities.
• The “Abu Shabab” militia accused Hamas of turning medical facilities—especially the Nasr Hospital—into military posts and weapons storage sites, using ambulances and health buildings for combat and detention

Gaza

Ceasefire Deal

• US Mediation: US envoy Steve Witkoff is scheduled to visit Cairo soon for crucial ceasefire and hostage deal talks. Egyptian sources revealed that the US is organizing a Gaza meeting in Doha and intends to present a plan to end the war within days. US pressure on Netanyahu to accept a long-term truce is increasing.
• Deal Prospects: Palestinian-American mediator Bishara Bahbah stated that an agreement could be reached “within days,” with disputes largely remaining over whether the temporary ceasefire will be extended if no permanent deal is reached, as Hamas demands.
• President Donald Trump predicted a ceasefire could be achieved in Gaza “within the next week.”
• Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a key adviser to Netanyahu, is set to visit Washington for talks on both Gaza and Iran.
• A senior Palestinian source told Sky News Arabia that Hamas is making several firm demands as preconditions for any potential deal. These demands include ensuring that no harm will come to its political bureau members living abroad, protection from the confiscation of Hamas funds, and freedom from international travel restrictions. Furthermore, Hamas insists on being granted a significant role in administering Gaza after the war and is seeking explicit US guarantees that the fighting will not resume after a ceasefire is reached.
• The US has reportedly notified regional mediators that it is actively pressuring Prime Minister Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza, with Washington preparing to present a comprehensive plan to end the war in the coming days. Egyptian and other regional mediators have asked for a well-defined timeline for a truce and urged the Americans to convince Israel to implement at least a two-week pause in hostilities as an initial confidence-building measure.
• According to reports, mediators are calling for a robust and organized plan to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza throughout the month of July, emphasizing the urgency of meeting civilian needs alongside political negotiations.

Operational

• Completion of Division 252’s Mission: The IDF’s 252nd Reserve Division (“Sini” Formation) finished its mission in northern Gaza after 4.5 months, having arrived during the ceasefire and as part of Operation “Wings of Freedom.” The division fought in the Daraj, Tuffah, Sajaiya neighborhoods and in central Gaza, destroying dozens of tunnel shafts and routes totaling 6 km. The unit was replaced by Division 99 (“Bazak” Formation), which also operated for several months in northern Gaza and was responsible for securing and expanding the Be’eri axis.
• Focus on Gaza City: Gaza City remains Hamas’s strongest stronghold. Israeli assessments suggest there may be no alternative but to capture and level it—similar to what was done in the northern third of the strip—to achieve a decisive result.
• Incident in Khan Younis (June 24, 2025): Seven soldiers from the combat engineering Unit from Battalion 605 were killed when a Hamas militant threw an explosive into their armored personnel carrier, which was loaded with explosives, causing a massive explosion and fire. Hours were spent trying to extinguish the fire, including with D9 bulldozers and sand, before it was finally put out after dragging the vehicle away.
• Hamas Attacks Documented: Hamas released several videos in recent days showing attacks on Israeli vehicles, including attaching explosives to APCs, firing mortars, RPGs, sniper fire, anti-tank missiles, and small arms fire, often at close range. These occurred in heavily mined areas in western Khan Younis, regions where the IDF has not yet operated, highlighting the dangerous task of clearing and flattening these neighborhoods.

Humanitarian Aid

• US Aid and GHF: Trump authorized a $30 million donation to the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). While acknowledging some aid is stolen by “bad people,” he called the GHF system “pretty good” and urged other countries to help resolve the humanitarian crisis.
• In northern Gaza, Hamas continues to seize aid trucks, often with the support of armed clans. Last week, 500 trucks entered the strip, many were looted—70 trucks were stolen by crowds in Khan Younis alone. In the north, Hamas uses its military power to take control and distribute food publicly to project an image of success versus the Israeli distribution system.
• In recent weeks, Hamas’s “Saham” unit has been actively working to reassert the organization’s control over the population in Gaza. Operating under the command of Az al-Din al-Haddad, the unit has resorted to violence and executions, targeting individuals who protest against Hamas, those accused of stealing food, or anyone seen as resisting the group’s authority. Under the pretext of redistributing stolen food trucks in northern Gaza, Hamas is attempting to solidify its dominance, using food aid as a tool to maintain power in contested neighborhoods.
• These actions have faced pushback. At the Nasser Hospital, located in western Khan Younis, clan members opposing Hamas set fire to the unit’s vehicles, vandalized parts of the hospital used by Hamas, and even engaged in armed clashes with its operatives. Resistance has also been reported from a clan in Nuseirat, which took up arms against Hamas, signaling a broader challenge to the group’s rule.
• Yasser Abu-Shabab, a clan leader currently sheltered in eastern Rafah under IDF protection, gave an interview to Arab media in which he condemned the October 7 massacre and insisted that his group is not affiliated with any organization. Abu-Shabab emphasized that their weapons are strictly tribal, and that they maintain coordination with Israel. Behind the scenes, there are indications that Israel continues to support his militia and potentially others, in hopes of fostering a new governing alternative as Hamas struggles to hold onto power amid growing local resistance.
• Israeli Government Response: Netanyahu and Katz ordered the IDF to present a plan within 48 hours to prevent Hamas from seizing aid.
• Allegations of IDF Misconduct: A Haaretz report accused the IDF of ordering soldiers to shoot at Palestinian civilians near aid distribution sites. The IDF and Israeli leadership rejected the accusations, calling it “blood libel.” The IDF Military Advocate General launched an investigation into possible war crimes, but the GHF stated there have been no fatalities or incidents at its distribution sites and emphasized the IDF’s responsibility to provide safe passage for aid-seekers.
• Internal Gaza Clashes: Violent confrontations erupted between Hamas and the Barbach family, a clan associated with Fatah and supported by the “Abu Shabab” militia. Hamas gunmen shot Mohammed Barbach, a leader of recent protests against Hamas and a security guard at aid distribution points, and a Hamas sniper shot a 16-year-old boy. Barbach’s leg was amputated after being shot 12 times. The Barbach family retaliated by burning the hospital entrance and killing several Hamas members. The “Abu Shabab” militia accused Hamas of turning medical facilities—especially the Nasr Hospital—into military posts and weapons storage sites, using ambulances and health buildings for combat and detention.

Judea and Samaria

• Counterterror Operations: Twenty suspects were arrested, including a weapons lab uncovered in Hebron (with airsoft guns and tens of thousands of shekels in terror funds). In Jenin, a weapons dealer was arrested after searches of 200 buildings and the questioning of dozens of suspects. Terror funds were confiscated in other locations as well.
• Engineering Works in Tulkarem: Significant demolition and infrastructure work took place in Tulkarem, destroying dozens of buildings to expand the camp and create new access roads for security forces.
• Clash in Kafr Malik near Ramallah: Thirty settlers entered the Arab village of Kafr Malik, sparking riots. During the ensuing clashes, three Palestinians were killed and seven wounded; an Israeli officer was lightly injured by stone-throwing.
• Attack on IDF Reservists: Several dozen Israelis attacked IDF reserve soldiers and police responding to the unrest. The assailants reportedly attempted to run over soldiers, beat, choked, and threw stones at them, and slashed the tires of a police vehicle. The IDF and the Police condemned the incident with a joint statement:” “The IDF and Israel Police condemn any act of violence against security forces and will act firmly against any attempt to harm security personnel carrying out their duty to protect Israeli citizens”. The Prime Minister, Defense Minister, Finance Minister and the Chief of Staff all released strongly worded condemnations of the incident.

Lebanon

Diplomatic

• According to reports from Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, the Lebanese military has submitted a detailed work plan to the United States, outlining a framework for reciprocal actions between Lebanon and Israel. The Lebanese proposal suggests that, in exchange for Israeli steps such as withdrawal from certain areas, halting attacks, or releasing Lebanese prisoners, Lebanon would begin the process of disarming armed groups operating north of the Litani River. However, these actions would be contingent upon firm US guarantees that Israel will adhere to its commitments.
• Internally, Lebanon is engaged in a significant debate over the future of Hezbollah’s military arsenal. President Joseph Aoun has reportedly conveyed directly to Hezbollah’s parliamentary leader that the group’s heavy weapons have outlived their original purpose and should now be transferred to the Lebanese Army, especially in the wake of the most recent conflict.
• The Lebanese President, Prime Minister, and Speaker of Parliament are expected to coordinate a unified response to the proposals brought by Tom Barrack, Trump’s envoy, who recently visited Beirut to push for swift action on Hezbollah’s disarmament. Once finalized, Lebanon’s official position will be approved by the government and communicated back to Barrack ahead of his anticipated return to the country.
• President Joseph Aoun met with the Palestinian ambassador in Beirut, Ashraf Dabbour. Following the meeting, Ambassador Dabbour emphasized that the Palestinians and their leadership fully respect Lebanon’s sovereignty and expressed their willingness to support the extension of Lebanese state authority over all its territory, including within the Palestinian refugee camps.
• Israel’s delegate has reportedly informed the US that IDF withdrawal would only begin once Hezbollah hands over all of its weapons.

Operational

• IDF conducted a series of Strikes and Operations:
  • Strikes North of the Litani: The IDF struck military targets, rocket launchers, and arms depots north of the Litani River.
  • Drone Strikes in Nabatieh: On Tuesday, an Israeli drone strike killed three Hezbollah operatives, including a money-changer coordinating with Iran’s Quds Force.
  • Night Raid in Houla: Overnight, Israeli forces entered Houla, demolishing a Hezbollah building.
  • Drone Strike in Southern Lebanon: A Hezbollah operative was killed while operating engineering equipment near a village in southern Lebanon.
  • Ground Activity: the IDF conducted ground operations near one of five Hezbollah outposts, carrying out controlled detonations.
  • Air Force Attack on Beaufort Castle: Israeli jets targeted a Hezbollah facility in the Beaufort Castle area, southern Lebanon.
• Financial Flows Exposed: The IDF revealed that hundreds of millions of dollars have been funneled to Hezbollah via currency exchanges in Turkey, Iraq, the UAE, and at least six bureaus in Beirut since Assad’s fall and during Israel’s “Northern Arrows” operation, to help fund Hezbollah’s reconstruction.
• On June 25, Hezbollah had to cease paying salaries to its fighters due to a cash shortage in its bank, the Al-Qard al-Hasan Association. The combination of repeated Israeli strikes in Iran—including the killing of the commander of the 190th Brigade—and financial constraints has severely limited Iran’s ability to provide support or resources to Hezbollah, impacting the group’s operational capacity in Lebanon.

Syria

• ISIS Suicide Attack in Damascus: An ISIS suicide bomber targeted a church service in Damascus, marking the first such attack since Syrian leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani’s rise to power. At least 15 killed and dozens injured. Various accounts on social media claims that the attacker was a security agent connected to the al-Julani regime.
• Instability and Proxy Struggles: The Islamic Resistance Front in Syria—an Iranian-backed proxy—seeks to destabilize the new regime, aiming to restore Syria as an Iranian satellite after losing key weapons routes to Hezbollah due to al-Julani’s control.
• Crackdown on Shia Minorities: al-Julani’s forces attacked and destroyed Shia religious centers built for Muharram ceremonies, and the regime banned mourning rituals for Imam Hussein, a move widely reported in Syrian media.
• Suppression of Minorities and Religious Practices: al-Julani is enforcing strict Sunni Islamic law, suppressing minority rights, and banning non-Sunni religious ceremonies, with little Western attention.

Iran

• “Rising Lion”:1,200 air sorties (including 600 aerial refuelings), thousands of munitions dropped, and 250 missile launchers destroyed. The IDF Chief of Staff stated Israel fully achieved the operation’s objectives and dealt a systemic blow to Iran’s nuclear program, setting it back by years.

• Casualties and Damage: At least 627 Iranians were killed, including dozens of senior officials and at least 35 air defense personnel; nearly 4,870 wounded. Despite this, Iran has declared victory.

• Despite suffering major setbacks, Iran is promoting a narrative of victory to ensure regime survival. At the same time, it is using the ceasefire to stall negotiations with the West while accelerating their nuclear program recovery and other rebuilding efforts.

• IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir declared that Iran is no longer a nuclear threshold state after the Israeli and US strikes. There are varying assessments of the damage to Iran’s nuclear sites, but it is clear that the program was set back for years, particularly after the Israeli attack on centrifuge factories. The IAEA inspectors are now barred from entering Iran, following parliamentary approval.

• Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, announced that Iran will not allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to install cameras at its nuclear facilities, and stated that the head of the agency will be barred from entering the country.

• Statements and Reactions: Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel will prevent any future Iranian nuclear weapons efforts, including enforcement. He also clarified that Israel did not kill Khamenei because his location underground was unknown.
• US and Israeli Intelligence: Trump revealed that Israeli intelligence was used to expose the destruction at Fordow. He called the attacks both an Israeli victory and, ironically, an Iranian one because the regime survived.
• Diplomatic Developments: After the military confrontation, the Iranian front has shifted to diplomacy. Trump said talks may occur with Iran next week, and a potential deal could be reached.
• Assassination Plot: According to a new book, Iran nearly succeeded in assassinating former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at a hotel in Paris three years ago.
• Thousands gathered in Tehran to mourn senior IRGC commanders, nuclear scientists, and civilians killed in the Israeli strikes. The event was attended by President Pezeshkian and senior officials.

• In Iran, the authorities have begun arresting prominent figures from the Jewish community, including rabbis and community leaders in Tehran and Shiraz, on allegations of connections to Israel. This has created a climate of fear, compelling the Jewish community to publicly demonstrate their loyalty to the regime.
• A special gathering was organized in Tehran, where Jewish Iranians, including those serving in the Iranian military, attended in uniform and wore yarmulkas to show support for the government in the aftermath of the ceasefire. During this event, the Jewish representative in the Iranian parliament, Homayoun Sameh, asserted—without providing evidence—those Israeli airstrikes had damaged several Jewish communal buildings. Against the backdrop of heightened regime paranoia, these public displays of support are widely seen as necessary measures by the Jewish community to avoid suspicion, persecution, or forced disappearances.

International

• Abraham Accords Expansion: US envoy Witkoff announced efforts to expand the Abraham Accords into Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Lebanon, and Syria.
• The EU considers downgrading their relations with Israel based on a review of the EEAS Report on Human Rights Violations in Gaza. While full suspension of the agreement requires approval from all 27 member nations, partial actions can be implemented with a qualified majority. Divisions within the EU persist, with nations such as Germany and Austria reluctant to support severe actions against Israel.
• It is ironic that Europe’s response to Israel’s war defend itself against a multi-front existential threat appears to be diametrically the opposite of how countries in Israel’s (and Iran’s) immediate vicinity have reacted to Israel’s actions. Interestingly, the Abraham accords countries and countries that may join the accords have remained silent on the matter while pro-Palestinian NGOs called for a harsher action by the EU.
• In a joint press statement on June 29, 2025, German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt visited the site of the Iranian missile strike in Bat Yam, Israel—the first foreign-diplomatic trip since the end of Operation “Rising Lion”, accompanied by Foreign Minister Gideon Saar. “We must support Israel in the fight against terrorism”, he added.

Yemen

• Missile Intercepted: An Iran-backed Houthi ballistic missile fired at Israel was likely intercepted by air defense systems.
• On Saturday, June 28, large pro-Houthi rallies took place in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. Protesters celebrated “Iran’s victory” and pledged to “stand with Gaza until victory.”

Fallen Soldiers

• Matan Shai Yashinovski
• Staff Sgt. Ronel Ben-Moshe
• Ronen Shapiro
• Maayan Baruch Pearlstein
• Staff Sgt. Niv Radia
• Shahar Manoav
• Staff Sgt. Alon Davidov

הפוסט Weekly War Summary Week #90 | June 22-June 28 ,2025 הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

June 13-24, 2025

Overview

The “Rising Lion” operation, also dubbed the “12 Day War”, marked a watershed moment in the military and strategic confrontation between Israel and Iran. Israel embarked on a military campaign to strike the core of Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile project, thereby removing a clear and present threat by Iran. The United States, initially merely greenlighting a unilateral Israeli action, joined the campaign to strike sensitive sites with unique military capabilities. The campaign also saw unprecedented launches of ballistic missiles and drone attacks, sophisticated use of Israeli air defenses, and direct involvement of global powers. Both sides suffered losses, but the scope and results set a new precedent in the region.

Israeli Successes

Israel’s action was robust and multidimensional, achieving almost all operational goals. Most notably, Israel successfully neutralized the nuclear threat, drastically reduced the missile threat, targeted regime symbols, and decimated nearly the entire upper echelon of the IRGC. Israel also established overwhelming air and intelligence superiority, dominating the skies of Iran with little resistance, broadcasting to the region that it possesses formidable capabilities as a regional power.

Importantly, Israel refrained from targeting certain top Iranian regime officials (such as Supreme Leader Khamenei and members of the government), while targeting top military and nuclear officials, and from destroying vital oil facilities. This restraint was deliberate, intended both to avoid triggering a global energy crisis and to preserve key assets for possible future leverage in the next stage of the conflict.

Diplomatic and Strategic Dimension

• The United States joined the campaign not only in a defensive role but also in offensive operations. This was particularly evident in the joint strikes on nuclear facilities, including the deeply buried Fordow site.
• Iranian regional proxies, cultivated over decades for just such a confrontation, largely abstained from joining the conflict. Hezbollah did not fire a single missile; Iraqi militias remained uninvolved; even the Houthis, who had routinely launched missiles toward Israel, only managed two launches during the twelve days of fighting.
• Israel’s actions received broad international legitimacy. This was reflected both in Western support for Israel’s military response and in the restraint shown by adversarial regional actors.

Military Achievements

Nuclear Program

• Israel struck the three primary nuclear facilities (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan) and numerous secondary sites related to Iran’s nuclear program, including command centers in Tehran and centrifuge manufacturing plants. The fatal blow that reportedly caused the total elimination of these sites was inflicted by the United States.
• At least fifteen senior Iranian nuclear scientists, including leaders of the “weaponization group,” were eliminated.
• Intelligence assessments indicate significant damage to all three main nuclear facilities, but the full extent—especially regarding uranium stockpiles—remains under investigation.

Ballistic Missile Program

• Around 65% of Iranian ballistic missile launchers were destroyed.
• Israeli airstrikes wiped out 800–1,000 ballistic missiles from Iran’s arsenal before they could be launched. As a result, Iran’s total remaining missile inventory is estimated at 1,000–1,500—less than half of its pre-war levels.
• Iranian missile launch capability has been severely diminished, with western missile units knocked out and remaining launch operations forced to shift to central and eastern Iran.

Targeted Killings

• Four senior Iranian military branch commanders were eliminated: senior advisor to the Supreme Leader, the IRGC commander, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, the commander of the Emergency Command and his successor, and the leaders of the nuclear program.
• The entire leadership of the IRGC Air and Space Force was wiped out, including the Air Force commander.
• Two senior Quds Force commanders, Izadi and Shahriari, were also killed.
• Hundreds of IRGC and Basij officers were killed in a series of attacks on command centers in Tehran.

Defense Achievements

• Israel’s air defense systems intercepted 80–90% of incoming missiles. Of the total barrage, only 50–60 missiles struck Israeli territory, with 8 causing deadly casualties.
• Israel intercepted 99.99% of Iranian drones, with only one drone causing physical damage—without any injuries.
• Throughout the operation, Israel maintained continuous operation of vital national infrastructure. There were no significant disruptions to power, water, or energy supply, and the feared “blackout scenario” did not materialize.

Air Superiority

• According to Israeli Air Force officials, over 80% of Iran’s air defense capabilities were destroyed.
• Contrary to initial fears, no Israeli manned aircraft were shot down over Iran, and no Israeli pilot required rescue.
• More than 80 Iranian surface-to-air missile batteries were destroyed, leaving Iran’s airspace vulnerable.

Iranian Retaliation Capabilities

• Iran demonstrated its ability to orchestrate significant assaults on Israeli territory, launching hundreds of ballistic missiles and over a thousand drones in a campaign designed to overwhelm Israel’s multilayered air defense. The strikes caused significant civilian casualties and widespread property damage. The barrage inflicted heavy psychological and material tolls, temporarily disrupting life in many Israeli communities and highlighting Israel’s continued vulnerability to high-volume missile attacks.
• Iranian air defenses succeeded in downing two Israeli UAVs, a notable feat given the technological gap and Israel’s reputation for air dominance.
• Iran’s campaign also achieved limited but symbolic successes by striking major infrastructure targets, including energy and scientific facilities. There were direct hits on sites like the Bazan oil refinery complex in Haifa, Weizmann Institute, the Soroka hospital and multiple civilian buildings.

Key Figures:

• Iran launched approximately 500 ballistic missiles and over 1,000 drones at Israeli territory.
• Israel suffered 28 fatalities (27 civilians and one IDF soldier) and hundreds of injuries as a result of Iranian missile strikes.
• Dozens of sites in Israel were damaged, including significant destruction to hundreds of homes, leaving many residents homeless.
• Israel’s air defenses achieved 80–90% successful interception rates for missiles, while 99% of drones were intercepted. Only one drone caused any physical damage, and even then, there were no casualties.
• Critical infrastructure, including Haifa’s Bazan industrial complex and the Weizmann Institute in Rehovot, were hit.
• On the Iranian side, two Israeli Air Force drones were shot down by Iranian air defense systems.

U.S.-Israel Relations and International Context

• One of the most remarkable outcomes of the operation was the public, direct military collaboration between the United States and Israel against a common adversary. This development marks a dramatic shift from the approach during the 1990 Gulf War, when the U.S. sought to keep Israel on the sidelines and was reluctant to be seen as sharing a military front. Today, such joint action serves as a powerful force multiplier and changes the perception of Israel in the eyes of the U.S.’s Muslim and Arab allies, positioning it as a legitimate and central security partner.
• President Trump’s strategy introduced a new security architecture in the Middle East—one that offers Israel more autonomy as a U.S. ally and serves as a model for other regional partnerships in Europe and Asia. This approach allows the U.S. to reduce its own direct military commitments while empowering its allies. It is a move that not only demonstrates U.S. strength but also signals a shift toward greater burden-sharing in global security arrangements.
• At the NATO summit, President Trump stated that negotiations with Iran would likely resume soon, underscoring a preference for diplomacy following military pressure. He highlighted the severe damage inflicted on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and detailed the scale of the U.S. contribution, noting that 52 American refueling planes participated in the campaign, which had been planned for five years and executed over a matter of weeks.
• Trump characterized the end of the war as a product of mutual exhaustion, with both Iran and Israel eager to conclude hostilities after the American strike. He also revealed that Israel launched aircraft in response to Iranian ceasefire violations, but that he ordered them to stand down, reinforcing U.S. authority in the unfolding events. While sanctions on Iran remain in effect, Trump clarified that Iran is allowed to sell oil to China as a form of compensation for the conflict, but that this policy could change at any time. He also stressed that President Putin of Russia was not involved in the ceasefire negotiations.
• In the international aftermath, Israel managed to rally Western support for its actions. European leaders, including Macron, Merz, and Starmer, moved from supporting a return to the 2015 JCPOA to demanding zero enrichment, no ballistic missiles, and no Iranian proxies. The West publicly acknowledged Israel’s willingness to “do the dirty work” and expressed readiness to defend Israel and participate in its security, even while continuing diplomatic efforts with Iran under pressure.

The Fordow Attack

• One of the campaign’s most controversial elements was the attack on the Fordow nuclear facility. President Trump declared the strike a “total obliteration,” asserting that Israeli agents were present at the site post-strike and confirming the scale of destruction. Israel announced it would publish a report supporting these claims.
• The IDF spokesperson responded cautiously, saying all operational objectives were achieved, possibly even better than planned, but that it was too soon to reach final conclusions. The spokesperson emphasized trust in Israeli intelligence and referenced the IAEA director’s statement that Iran’s nuclear breakout capability had been pushed much further away, representing a “pre-operation Iran” and a “post-operation Iran” now far from the threshold.
• However, American intelligence, including the Defense Intelligence Agency and independent analysts, expressed doubt, suggesting it was too early to assess the true extent of the damage. Media reports (such as CNN) highlighted the lack of immediate physical evidence for “obliteration,” and pointed out that while the attack may have set Iran’s program back years, the technical ability to rebuild remains.
• Israel itself clarified that, while the strike delivered a significant blow, intelligence assessments and site investigations were ongoing.

Aftermath analysis

• On the strategic level, Israel broke significant psychological and operational barriers, proving both its resolve to use force against Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its capability to do so at significant risk. The campaign eliminated top Iranian military leaders and scientists, neutralized major air defense systems, and threw the Iranian regime off balance. Israel demonstrated an ability to operate special forces and intelligence assets deep inside Iran, as well as a willingness to attack regime symbols—military HQs, Basij centers, Evin Prison, and even cultural landmarks—humiliating the regime and exposing its vulnerabilities.
• The main challenge moving forward is enforcing Iran’s diminished capabilities—ensuring it does not rebuild its nuclear or ballistic missile programs, and pushing for a stringent, enforceable inspection regime. This will require ongoing Western unity, Israeli deterrence, and creative diplomatic strategies.
• The Iranian parliament responded by voting 222–0 to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), seeking to close off external oversight. Iran sent a formal letter to the UN Security Council demanding action against the U.S. and Israel for what it called “preemptive self-defense” attacks on its nuclear sites.

Potential for Regime Change

• Domestically, there were no significant protests against the regime. This was not due to support for the government, but rather to shock, fear, and the rapid pace of events. Half of Tehran’s population evacuated, terrified by both airstrikes and the regime’s repressive apparatus. Many Iranians doubted that Israel or the U.S. would support an uprising, making them hesitant to act. The regime used the aftermath to arrest suspected collaborators, raid homes, confiscate drones and weapons, and even begin executions, further consolidating its power for now.
• While there is growing talk of regime change— a newly normalized term in some circles—the reality is that such a process is complex, slow, and ultimately depends on internal Iranian developments. Israel and its allies can apply pressure and support dissent, but regime change is a long-term challenge that cannot be imposed from outside.

Moving Forward Analysis

• Israel now faces a critical phase in securing the gains of the operation. The immediate priorities are twofold: first, to maintain and even tighten sanctions on Iran, preventing rapid recovery of its military and nuclear capabilities; and second, to translate the military achievements into a comprehensive and stringent diplomatic agreement, with active U.S. and Western involvement. Despite Trump’s tweet allowing China to buy Iranian oil, as of now, sanctions remain in effect, and no new U.S.–Iran diplomatic deal has been reached.
• Israel must preserve its freedom of action in Iran to actively prevent the nuclear and missile threat from metastasizing, including repeated strikes per the “Lebanon model”. It is vital for Israel not to project weakness. The military must maintain ongoing pressure, normalize Israeli overflights in Iranian airspace, and avoid any sense of complacency. Historically, Israeli adversaries have seized on any sign of weakness; this war should be no exception. Iran will undoubtedly seek to learn from the conflict, rebuild its forces, and prepare for a future round of hostilities.
• Moving forward, Israel must focus not only on military deterrence but also on “soft power”: diplomacy, supporting internal opposition, psychological operations, covert activities, and clear international demands that Iran halt its calls for Israel’s destruction.
• Israel achieved nearly all of its military objectives without incurring significant costs, but this does not constitute final victory. True victory would only come if Iran or any future regime in Tehran formally recognized Israel and abandoned the drive to destroy it. Until then, both sides will continue to claim success, but the long-term outcome will depend on sustained strategic determination.

הפוסט Final Situation Report | Israel-Iran War | June 13-24 2025 הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

Overview

• IDF Spokesperson revealed that Hamas generated income of hundreds of millions of dollars during the war by exploiting the food aid and humanitarian crisis in Gaza by stealing aid and selling it at inflated prices.
• In light of Operation “Rising Lion”, Israel reduced its ground forces in Gaza.
• The number of ballistic missiles Iran is launching at Israel has dropped sharply, with Iran’s ability to strike Israeli civilian areas now severely degraded.
• Over the past eight days, the IAF has carried out more than 1,000 sorties over Iran, dropping hundreds of munitions on Iranian ballistic missile launch and storage sites. The IDF estimates that over 200 ballistic missile launchers have been destroyed—about half of Iran’s pre-war arsenal.
• The Houthis issue a statement threatening the United States if it joins the Israeli campaign against Iran, with a threat to attack American vessels.

Iran

For more information on Iran, check out our detailed daily reports here.

Gaza

Hostage Deal

• Mousa Abu Marzouk, Deputy Head of Hamas’s political bureau, said that despite Israeli claims of renewed negotiations, nothing has actually happened. He accused Israel of having no intention to end the war regardless of Hamas’s proposals and suggested that the Israel-Iran escalation could push Israel towards a temporary Gaza ceasefire. He further accused Prime Minister Netanyahu of a “thirst for blood.”
• The bodies of three slain hostages, Ofra Keidar, Jonathan Samerano, and Staff Sgt. Shay Levinson, were recovered in a joint military and Shin Bet operation from the Gaza Strip.

Humanitarian

• The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation reported that it has distributed 33.5 million meals during more than three weeks of operations in the Strip, including a record 3 million meals in a single day.
• Gaza Humanitarian Foundation interim director John Acree has asked the US administration to expand operations and requested an initial $30 million. In documents supporting its application, the group said it received nearly $119 million for May operations from “other government donors”. It expects $38 million from those unspecified government donors for June, in addition to the hoped-for $30 million from the United States.
• IDF Spokesperson revealed that Hamas generated income of hundreds of millions of dollars during the war by exploiting the food aid and humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Hamas systematically:
  • Confiscated 15–25% of all incoming aid, storing it in its own warehouses, and either sold it at inflated prices or distributed it to its fighters and collaborators.
  • Coordinated with stall owners in local markets to set artificially high prices, receiving a share of the profits.
  • Extorted protection money from merchants and stall owners in exchange for permission to sell food and aid.
  • Smuggled goods (including cigarettes and tobacco) via trucks coordinated with actors in Turkey, Iran, and other countries, capitalizing on high resale prices.
  • Since the closure of border crossings on March 2nd, Hamas’s control and ability to finance its operations through these means has been significantly weakened.

Operational

• In light of Operation “Rising Lion”, Israel reduced its ground forces in Gaza, transferring the 98th Division (Paratroopers, Commando, and likely the 7th Brigade) out to reinforce other fronts, leaving only four divisions in Gaza. Even the Nahal Brigade returned to the West Bank after fighting in Beit Lahiya (northern Gaza), now under Division 162. In the Khan Yunis sector, Division 36 continues to lead, composed mainly of the Kfir, Golani, and 188th Brigades.
• Givati Brigade Combat Team is engaged in Jabaliya, conducting systematic clearing and demolition of structures. In Gaza City itself, reports describe ongoing building demolitions as part of Operation “Merkavot Gideon”—the main goal being to flatten every building (preventing Hamas from using those buildings to attack IDF troops) in the northern sector to expand the buffer zone and deny Hamas cover. Progress is slow, as extensive engineering is required to destroy all structures in newly captured areas.
• Kfir Brigade has destroyed over 700 terrorist infrastructures in Khan Yunis since entering the area, including tunnel shafts, booby-trapped buildings, and rocket launchers.
• Golani Brigade’s Combat Team and Yahalom (combat engineers) completed a mission beneath the European Hospital, destroying Hamas’s former main headquarters (previously commanded by Mohammed Sinwar). They poured 250 cubic meters of concrete via dozens of trucks and cement mixers, sealing off the underground complex.
• Israeli airstrike in Gaza eliminated a senior commander of the Mujahideen Brigades, a group involved in burying the bodies of slain hostages Gadi Haggai and Judith Weinstein. This operation underscores Israel’s ongoing focus on both eliminating high-value terrorist targets and addressing the fate of hostages.

Domestic Israel

• IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir announced that Israelis should prepare for a “prolonged campaign” against Iran in order to “eliminate a threat of this magnitude,” indicating that a quick end to hostilities is unlikely. Zamir noted that Israel’s opening strike was launched with knowledge that Iran possessed around 2,500 surface-to-surface missiles, and could reach an estimated 8,000 within two years if left unchecked.
• Addressing concerns raised by U.S. media about possible shortages of Israeli interceptor missiles, the IDF clarified that it is using fewer interceptors than anticipated. Contrary to predictions, Iran launched only about 100 ballistic missiles in its initial salvo, less than the several hundred expected. Over the past week, 470 ballistic missiles have been launched at Israel—still below the IDF’s reference scenario for this operation. The IDF emphasized it is “prepared and ready to handle any scenario,” suggesting that reports of shortages may be attempts to sway public opinion against continuing the campaign.

Judea and Samaria

• IDF, Border Police, and Shin Bet launched an offensive in northern Samaria as part of Operation “Iron Wall”, with Nahal Brigade redeployed from northern Gaza for intensive action.
• Five battalions are currently operating in Nablus and Balata, expanding the “Iron Wall” operation from north to central Samaria. Hundreds of buildings have been searched, large quantities of weapons seized, and suspects apprehended. In Balata, two weapons manufacturing lathes were confiscated, with four more destroyed elsewhere.
• In recent raids, five terrorists were arrested, including one in Tamun (planning an imminent attack) and two in Jenin (engaged in bomb-making).
• In the southern Jordan Valley, police and Border Police thwarted a gun-smuggling attempt involving parts for six M-16 rifles.

• Pro-Hamas Palestinian channels are attempting to incite lone-wolf attacks in the West Bank, referencing the state of war and recent Iranian missile strikes: “Tehran strikes while the West Bank resists and distracts the enemy.”
• These efforts are tied to Iranian calls in recent days for “Islamic unity” against Israel, seeking to synchronize unrest across the region.

Lebanon

Operational

• IDF airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed Hezbollah’s artillery commander in the Litani sector, who was involved in restoring terror infrastructure. Another local anti-tank commander was eliminated in the Shebaa area by Israeli aircraft. In Tyre, a vehicle was targeted, resulting in the death of a Hezbollah commander.
• Hezbollah’s secretary general declared support for Iran but refrained from threats of direct intervention. Israeli Defense Minister Katz warned against such involvement. At this stage, the “Shiite axis” is not operational—Iran is isolated, with only the Houthis in Yemen issuing new threats against Israel and U.S. shipping.

Yemen

• Mahdi al-Mashat, head of the Houthi Supreme Political Council, reaffirmed Yemen’s support for Iran’s right to defend its sovereignty and deter attackers.
• Houthi politburo member Muhammad al-Bakhiti announced: “We will intervene to support Iran against Zionist attacks, just as we have supported our brothers in Gaza.”
• The Houthis issue a statement threatening the United States if it joins the Israeli campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear and military assets. Its spokesman said, “If the US is involved in an attack and aggression against Iran with the Israeli enemy, the armed forces will target its ships and warships in the Red Sea”

Iraq

• Iraqi Hezbollah brigades, having already threatened to fight alongside Iran if the U.S. joins the war, continue to threaten American forces. As a loyal Iranian proxy, they convey threats of sparking an Iraqi front to prevent U.S. intervention. After Iran’s “octopus arms” in the region were cut back, Tehran is seeking additional regional organizations—especially Iraqi Hezbollah, formed specifically to fight the U.S. and its representatives in Iraq.

Turkey

• Turkish sources report that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan advised Syrian President al-Julani not to join the developing Israel-Iran war.
• The S. informed Turkey just hours before Israel’s strikes in Iran about the impending attacks, which helped to “prevent potential tensions” between Israel and Turkey.
• The Turkish government held a series of security meetings to consider emergency scenarios and potential spillover risks resulting from Israel’s strikes inside Iran.

Global Jihad

• The editorial in the weekly ISIS magazine al-Naba commented on the Israel-Iran conflict, calling it a struggle between two rival powers for regional dominance. ISIS urges its followers to exploit the chaos by expanding jihad at all levels—logistics, recruitment, preparation, mandatory enlistment, and armament—and not miss this “opportunity,” trusting in God and understanding the moment.

Fallen Soldiers

הפוסט Israel Weekly War Summary Week #89 | June 15-June 21 ,2025 הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

Operational Clock War: Starting +275Hrs.

For real-time updates click here

Earlier versions of this report can be found here

Military Developments

Israeli Operations

• The IDF is striking regime targets in central Tehran with unprecedented force, which may indicate a possible change to weakening the regime and empowering anti-regime forces in Iran. Key sites targeted include:
  • Basij headquarters
  • Evin Prison (holding political prisoners and regime opponents)
  • The ‘Destruction of Israel’ clock in Palestine Square
  • Internal security headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards
  • Headquarters and other assets belonging to Iran’s internal security forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
• The IDF assesses that numerous IRGC soldiers were killed in the Tehran strikes.
• Strikes on access roads to the Fordo facility, stating the attacks were meant to “disrupt” the site’s accessibility.
• On Monday morning, Israel targeted Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility, confirmed by Iranian officials and other sources, a day after the US struck the same site.
• The IDF attacked six airports across Iran (western, eastern, and central regions), causing damage to runways, underground bunkers, a refueling aircraft, and various fighter jets (F-14, F-5, AH-1). The IDF stated these strikes were designed to strengthen Israeli dominance over Iranian airspace and to destroy aircraft that could be used against Israel.
• More than 15 IAF fighter jets also targeted surface-to-surface missile launch and storage sites in Kermanshah, aiming to diminish Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles.

Iranian Attacks

• Iran continued to attack Israel, but the scope of these actions appears to be diminished. A recent Iranian strike early Monday included just one ballistic missile, a notable drop from previous barrages.  However, a barrage later than morning included approximately 10 missiles.

• Strategic infrastructure was hit, with Energy and Infrastructure Minister Eli Cohen reporting that approximately 8,000 people in southern Israel lost electricity due to missile strikes near a critical facility.

• An Israeli unmanned aircraft (UAV) was downed inside Iranian territory, according to an IDF statement on Monday morning. The IDF confirmed that there was no intelligence leak from the incident.

• Early Monday, the IDF downed a drone launched toward the southern city of Eilat, preventing it from entering Israeli airspace. The origin of the drone was not specified.
• On Sunday, an Iranian missile barrage resulted in 86 Israeli civilians wounded.
• According to different reports, Iran sent a message already at the G-7 summit that if U.S.A. will get involved in the conflict, it will operate sleeper-cells inside the borders of the US

US Reactions

• President Donald Trump publicly mused about regime change in Iran on Sunday night, writing on Truth Social: “It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!”.
• This statement marks a significant shift in American messaging, raising the specter of regime change – a controversial topic to Trump’s base, in which “regime change” is seen as the first step in “forever wars”.
• In contrast, other top US officials sought to reassure the public that the US is not at war with Iran. Vice President JD Vance told NBC’s Meet the Press, “We’re not at war with Iran,” while Secretary of State Marco Rubio described recent US strikes as “not a regime change move.” This divergence is probably less a reflection of an internal debate and more likely intentional dual signaling to both US allies and adversaries.
• The US began evacuation flights for American citizens from Israel and opened an online form for registration.
• In Lebanon, the US Embassy ordered family members and non-essential staff to leave, highlighting concerns over regional escalation and Iranian proxies.
• The New York Times, reported that American intelligence indicated that Iran-backed groups in Iraq were preparing attacks on US bases.

Details about US Strike

Israeli and US coordination was critical in the recent strikes. Israeli officials told The Jerusalem Post that once the US had decided to attack the Iranian nuclear weapons sites, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer convinced President Trump to target Iran’s Isfahan facility as well as Fordow. American forces struck locations that were reportedly inaccessible to Israeli assets, with Israel providing essential intelligence while maintain air superiority throughout the US attack. Multiple high-level calls took place between US and Israeli leadership, underscoring full operational cooperation and mutual reliance during this phase of the campaign.

Geopolitical Reactions

Israel

• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the nation in both Hebrew and English, emphasizing that Israel “will not be dragged into a war of attrition” and intends to end the Iran conflict as soon as the core objectives are met. “When we achieve the goals, we will not continue with actions beyond what is necessary. But we will not finish too early.”
• Netanyahu reiterated Israel’s dual objectives: (1) eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat and (2) defeating Hamas, including securing the return of all hostages. He thanked President Trump and the United States for their robust support and operational partnership.

Iran

• Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said the US had “crossed a very big red line” with its bombing raid and that now was not the time for diplomacy. Araghchi said: “The door for diplomacy should be always kept open. But this is not the case right now.” Iran “reserves all options to defend its sovereignty…  for as long as necessary”.

• Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to Supreme Leader Khamenei, warned that Iran may retaliate for American attacks by targeting US bases across the region. Velayati declared: “Any country in the region or elsewhere that is used by American forces to strike Iran will be considered a legitimate target for our armed forces.”

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

• According to chief Rafael Grossi US bombing likely caused “very significant” damage to the underground Fordo uranium enrichment plant in Iran, but the full extent is still unknown.

The IDF struck 6 regime airports across western, central, and eastern Iran, destroying runways, underground hangars, refueling aircraft, F-14, F-5 and AH-1 aircraft. | Credit: IDF spokesperson

President Trump’s Truth Social post suggesting regime change | Credit: Truth Social

הפוסט Situation Report | Israel-Iran War | Day 11 הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

Operational Clock War: Starting +155Hrs.

For real-time updates click here

Military Developments

Israeli Operations

• The Israeli Air Force (IAF) launched a major offensive, striking approximately40 Iranian military targets in western Iran.
• Strikes included missile sites that targeted Israel, missile storage facilities, Iranian soldiers, and missile assembly components.
• Later in the night,60 Israeli fighter jets conducted another round of airstrikes in Tehran, targeting:
• Weapons production sites
• Centrifuge production and R&D sitesrelated to Iran’s nuclear weapons project
• Factories producing raw materials and missile components
• AnEmad ballistic missile launcher prepared for an attack on Israel
• Sites for Iran’s air defense systems production
• IAF also struck and destroyedfive Iranian AH-1 helicopters at a military airbase in Kermanshah.
• On Thursday morning, Israel bombed Iran’sArak heavy water reactor, a crucial site for plutonium production, and carried out a second strike on the Natanz enrichment facility, alongside ,ns of additional military sites.
• A wave of overnight strikes involved40 fighter jets dropping 100 munitions on military targets in Tehran and other regions, with an explicit goal of preventing the Arak reactor’s restoration for nuclear weapons development.
• Heavy-water reactorslike Arak are considered a proliferation risk due to their capability to produce plutonium, a core material for atomic bombs.
• The IAF executedover 600 aerial refuelings across the Middle East, enabling dozens of jets to operate at ranges exceeding 1,500 kilometers from Israel.

Iranian Attacks

• Iran firedapproximately 30 ballistic missiles early Thursday morning.
• TheSoroka Medical Center in southern Israel took a direct hit, forcing it to close to all but life-threatening cases.
• Additional impacts were recorded inHolon and Ramat Gan, central Israeli cities, resulting in over 200 injuries (six seriously). Rescue teams addressed people who were trapped under the debree.
• The strike inRamat Gan occurred near the Israeli stock exchange, within a key financial district housing multiple European and African embassies and diplomatic missions, causing massive damage.

Inside Iran

• TheIDF issued a public message in Persian, urging concerned Iranians—including members of the security establishment—to contact Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency.
• Internet restrictionsin Iran were further tightened, with the regime accusing Israel of exploiting the network for military purposes during the conflict.
• The regime’s internet clampdown is widely viewed as a sign of fear over potentialinternal unrest triggered by the Israeli offensive.
• Iranian state television was hacked, reportedly by Israeli cyber operations, briefly airing footage ofwomen’s protests against modesty restrictions and encouraging public demonstrations.

Geopolitical Reactions

• United States:
  • President Donald Trump reportedly told his staff that he has approved plans to strike Iran but is holding off to see if Iran will abandon its nuclear ambitions.
  • According to Axios, Trump inquired if the GBU-57 30,000-pound bombs could destroy Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility; Pentagon officials said this is possible, though Trump has not yet made a final decision.
  • Trump has sent mixed signals, stating: “I may do it, I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” and emphasizing it’s not “too late” for Iran to halt its nuclear program.
  • Trump claimed Iran even suggested sending envoys to the White House for talks to end Israel’s air assault, but also expressed frustration, saying:
    • “I’ve had it, okay? I give up, no more, we go and blow up all the nuclear stuff that’s all over the place.”
  • Later, Trump argued Iran was only “a few weeks away” from a nuclear weapon before Israel intervened, and now calls for “total victory,” not a ceasefire.
  • He added: “I’m not looking to fight, but if it’s a choice between fighting and having a nuclear weapon, you have to do what you have to do. Maybe we won’t have to fight.”
  • Iran’s UN mission denied that Tehran sought negotiations with the U.S., stating: “Iran does NOT negotiate under duress, shall NOT accept peace under duress, and certainly NOT with a has-been warmonger clinging to relevance.”
  • US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee announced evacuation efforts for American citizens, including flights and cruise ships.
  • U.S. officials confirmed some diplomats and family members have been evacuated from Israel.
• Other International Responses:
  • Countries such as Slovakia, Poland, Czech Republic, Austria, Slovenia, Estonia, Spain, and Malaysia have evacuated citizens from Israel, often with assistance from other European countries.
  • Taiwan facilitated the departure of 14 Taiwanese nationals to Jordan by bus.
  • Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty held discussions with French and British counterparts regarding the escalating conflict.

Inside Israel

• Six days into the campaign, Israel’sHome Front Command has begun easing some civilian restrictions, allowing workplaces to reopen and small gatherings to take place; however, schools remain closed nationwide.
• Opposition Leader Yair Lapidpublicly called on President Trump to join Israel’s military campaign against Iran.
• Police halted broadcastsfrom several foreign news agencies at missile impact sites, citing concerns that revealing precise locations was aiding enemy targeting, especially the footage that was being aired by Al Jazeera.
• Israeli authorities are actively restricting information on strike locations to prevent Iran from calibrating further missile attacks.
• Defense Minister Katz labeled Khamenei “the modern Hitler,”blaming him for ordering attacks on Israeli hospitals and for dedicating all of Iran’s resources to Israel’s destruction.
• Katz and the Prime Minister ordered the IDF to escalate attacks on Iran’s strategic and government sitesto remove threats to Israel and destabilize the regime.
• Katz said “Adictator like Khamenei, who leads Iran and has made the destruction of Israel his banner — such a person must not be allowed to exist.”

The IAF jet aerial refueling. Over 600 mid-air refueling have taken place since the start of the operation. | Credit: IDF Spokesperson

IDF’ strike on an inactive nuclear reactor in Arak—a key component in plutonium production. | Credit: IDF Spokesperson

Iranian government is shutting down internet connectivity. | Credit: Netblocks post on X

הפוסט Situation Report | “Rising Lion”, Israel-Iran War | Day 7 הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

Operational Clock War: Starting +131Hrs.

For real-time updates click here

Military Developments

Israeli Operations

• The IDF issued an evacuation warning for Tehran’s District 18, south of Mehrabad International Airport, ahead of strikes on military infrastructure.
• The IDF intercepted three Iranian drones over the southern Golan Heights.
• The IDF struck a centrifuge production facility and multiple weapons manufacturing sites in the Tehran area. More than 50 IAF jets participated in the strikes on around 20 targets. The majority of the targets struck were facilities producing components and raw materials for surface-to-surface missiles and sites for surface-to-air missiles.
• Footage aired on IRIB shows what appears to be a crashed an Israeli Hermes 900
• The IDF announced that it had struck and destroyed both above ground and underground Natanz nuclear sites, targeting Iran’s crucial centrifuge fleet. However, IAEA chief Rafael Grossireported to the Board of Governors that Israel failed to destroy Iran’s uranium-enriching centrifuge fleet. Multiple senior IDF sources challenged Grossi’s assessment, while another senior official said the status of the underground facility remains unclear.
• The IDFstates it has ready plans to strike Iran’s underground Fordow nuclear facility, pending political approval. Fordow is described as Iran’s most important nuclear facility.

Iranian Attacks

• Three separate Iranian ballistic missile attack waves targeting entire Israel on Tuesday evening. No injuries or damages were recorded.
• Iran fired two waves of ballistic missiles at Israel overnight Tuesday, with the first barrage beginning around 12:40 a.m. and the second approximately 40 minutes later. They included 15 and 10 missiles respectively. Iran’s missile arsenal is dwindling as the attacks involve less missiles than previous attacks.
• Only one missile hit civilian area, igniting a parking lot and damaging vehicles with no casualties as of Wednesday morning.
• Iran reportedly downed an Israeli droneover the Isfahan area, according to IRIB – a first in this conflict.
• Psychological warfare:An Iranian state TV channel aired a video displaying what appear to be nuclear warheads, captioned: “Maybe.”

Inside Iran

• Israeli-linked hacker group Gonjeshke Darande (“Predatory Sparrow”)claims responsibility for a cyberattack on Iranian cryptocurrency exchange Nobitex, threatening to release its source code and internal information within 24 hours.
• The same group also claims to havehacked Iran’s Bank Sepah. Despite the hack, reports indicate the bank’s services were not disrupted.

Geopolitical Reactions

• USA:
  • US President Donald Trumphas not yet decided if the US will join Israel in attacks on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities. Both US and Iranian militaries are reportedly preparing for possible US involvement.
  • TheUS deployed three dozen refueling planes to Europe and put over 40,000 troops in the Mideast on high alert. Two aircraft carriers (including USS Nimitz) are heading to the region, skipping expected port calls.
  • OnTruth Social, President Trump demanded Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” and threatened Supreme Leader Khamenei, saying Washington is “holding off” on assassinating him for now.
  • Satellite images(AP) show no vessels anchored off the US Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, suggesting the US may be repositioning assets to avoid possible Iranian retaliation.
  • President Trump when asked about Director of National Intelligence testimony in March stating that Iran was no building a nuclear weapon, he said, “I don’t care what she said. I think they were very close to having one.” He added that he was looking to end the nuclear threat once and for all, “I’m looking for something better than a ceasefire… An end. A real end. Not a ceasefire. An end.”
  • President Trump wrote on his Truth Social account, “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran”.

• Iran: The UN ambassador stated thatif the US is found to be directly involved in attacks on Iran, Tehran will respond accordingly
• UK: According to the British Defense Secretary John Healy, theUK military forces are deploying to the Middle East.
• UAE: Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayedcalled Iran’s president to express UAE solidarity with Iran during the crisis.
• Houthi’s: The spokesperson of the terror organization, stated onAl Jazeera Mubasher that they will intervene to support Iran against Israel.
• Japan: PM Ishiba said that Japan will never tolerate Iran’s development of nuclear weapons.

Inside Israel

• Netanyahu: The “most important decision” was theassassination of Nasrallah, which he claims “opened the path to Iran.” He added, “After victory over Iran, a new Middle East will emerge.” About the US and President Trump, he added “Trump will do what’s right for America. I won’t interfere with his considerations.”
• First twoflights of Israeli citizens from Cyprus have landed at Ben Gurion Airport; 2,800 are expected to return, with 19 emergency flights mostly from Europe.
• 100,000–150,000 Israelisare stranded abroad due to airspace closures from the aerial war with Iran.
• Foreign Affairs Ministry’s Instagram account in Persian crossed 2 million followers. Most of the followers are Iranian citizens in the age of 24-44. The account provide the Iranian people with news about Israel while emphasizing that the war is not against the Iranian nation and it’s citizens.

הפוסט Situation Report | “Rising Lions”, Israel-Iran War|Day 6 הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

Day 5 | Updated June 17^th, 2025 14:00PM (Israeli Standard Time GMT+3)

Operational Clock War: Starting +105Hrs.

2^nd report issued at +55Hrs.

3^rd report issued at +83Hrs

For real-time updates click here

Military Developments

Israeli Operations

Key Points:

• Israel launched a comprehensive offensive on June 16, 2025, targeting Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and command centers, crippling Iran’s military capabilities.
• Over 120 ballistic missile launchers (an estimated one-third of Iran’s total) and 20 IRGC facilities were destroyed. Senior officials like Brig. Gen. Mohammad Kazemi and Maj. Gen. Ali Shadmani were killed, further disrupting Iran’s leadership.
• Israeli air superiority ensures near-uncontested skies, with operations expanding eastward and potentially to Iran’s southern coastline, targeting naval and oil assets.
• Oil refineries and gas depots south of Tehran were hit, causing logistical bottlenecks and intensifying economic pressure by disrupting fuel supplies.
• Israel justified Operation Rising Lion, claiming that Iran was nearing a nuclear point of no return, seemed to be contradicted by U.S. intelligence estimates which concluded that Iran is still three years away from achieving a nuclear weapon, with strikes only causing a few months’ delay.

• An Israeli airstrike in Iran targeted a secret command center used by the Iranian military’s top brass. It was used as the main military emergency headquarters.

Personnel Eliminated

• Among the most significant outcomes, the IDF confirmed the elimination of senior Iranian intelligence officials, including IRGC intelligence chief Brig. Gen. Mohammad Kazemi, his deputy Hassan Mohaqiq, the heads of Quds Force intelligence, and Gen. Ali Shadmani, a senior military commander. These targeted killings have significantly weakened Iran’s military leadership, disrupting command and control structures.

Reports indicate that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been relocated to a secure bunker in northeastern Tehran as a precautionary measure against further Israeli strikes. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has openly stated that targeting Khamenei remains a possibility.

Overview

• Since June 16, 2025, Israel has launched a comprehensive offensive against Iran. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has systematically targeted Iranian air defense systems and ballistic missile sites, beginning in western Iran and progressively expanding operations to central regions, including Tehran and Isfahan. Described by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) as a gradual breach from west to east, this campaign has neutralized over 120 ballistic missile launchers—approximately one-third of Iran’s total capacity—and destroyed surface-to-air missile convoys, including a truck traveling between Tehran and Qom.
• Over 20 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and military command centers have been struck, with Israeli drones conducting deep surveillance into Iranian airspace, providing critical intelligence for further strikes.
• The IAF has also destroyed two Iranian F-14 jets on the ground and targeted oil refineries and gas depots south of Tehran, aiming to disrupt regime logistics and civilian energy supplies.
• These attacks have caused logistical bottlenecks, exacerbating economic pressure within Iran by limiting fuel availability and disrupting supply chains critical to both military and civilian sectors.
• Gen. Shlomi Binder, Commander of the IDF Intelligence Corps, emphasized the IDF’s commitment to neutralizing Iran’s missile threat and degrading its nuclear infrastructure until the existential danger to Israel is eliminated. He suggested that the Israeli intelligence still has more “surprises” down the road.

Iranian Attacks

Key Points:

• Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones, targeting Haifa, Tel Aviv, Herzliya injuring 5 civilians, and other strategic assets, with a missile hitting the Bazan oil refinery in Haifa, killing three.
• 24 Israelis killed and 2,000 displaced since Friday’s barrage, with significant impact in Petah Tikva and Tel Aviv, where hundreds are now homeless.
• Israel’s air defense systems have intercepted most attacks, but Iran’s diminished launchers still pose an acute threat, as some projectiles evade interception.

• Israel’s advanced air defense systems, including the Arrow and David’s Sling, have intercepted most incoming threats, but some missiles and drones have penetrated, underscoring the acute danger to Israeli population centers. The destruction of many Iranian launchers by Israeli strikes has significantly diminished Iran’s capacity to conduct large-scale barrages, but the remaining launchers and drones continue to pose a persistent threat, requiring constant vigilance from Israel’s defense forces.

Inside Iran

Key Points:

• Millions flee Tehran amid fuel shortages, gridlocked highways, and internet blackouts, with public services paralyzed and 14 arrested for “pro-Israel” social media posts.
• Israeli airstrikes hit IRIB state TV during a live broadcast, killing three, while Israeli-linked hacker group Gonjeshke Darande’s (Predatory Sparrow) cyberattack on Bank Sepah disrupted banking services and crashed the rial from 840,000 to 955,000 against the USD, limiting IRGC funding. Bank Sepah had been used primary by Iranian security personnel. The attack disrupted online banking services, including ATM withdrawals, and reportedly destroyed critical financial data, severely hampering the bank’s operations. Iran’s Fars News Agency acknowledged the disruption.
• Iranian hackers infiltrated Israeli Kan 11, inserting propaganda, while Israeli messaging and opposition media fuel regime change calls.

• On June 17, 2025, the reformist newspaper Shargh published a statement urging a cessation of hostilities, citing national security concerns and the over 220 civilian deaths caused by the conflict. This reflects growing elite concern over economic strain and regime stability, as public frustration mounts over civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
• The war has triggered widespread civilian anxiety and severe economic disruption within Iran, profoundly impacting daily life. Central Tehran and the Grand Bazaar have emptied, with millions fleeing the capital amid traffic jams and acute fuel shortages. Gas stations across the country are dry, and northern highways are gridlocked, paralyzing public services and stranding residents.
• The Iranian regime has imposed internet blackouts to control information flow and arrested 14 individuals for posting “pro-Israel” content on social media, signaling desperate efforts to suppress dissent and maintain public order.
• Opposition and diaspora media have capitalized on these events, amplifying calls for regime change and highlighting signs of government fragility. Israeli messaging campaigns have reached millions of Iranians, bypassing regime censorship and fueling internal unrest.

Geopolitical Reactions

Key Points:

• President Donald Trump has taken a hardline stance, rejecting ceasefire calls and demanding a definitive end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. On June 17, 2025, Trump dismissed reports of peace talks as “fake news”, praising Israel’s strikes as “very successful” and warning Iran to agree to a deal or face further destruction, stating, “You better agree before there is nothing left.” In a Truth Social post, he emphasized that Iran is weakened, its leadership in chaos, and its military battered, insisting on no talks until Iran ends its “nuclear nonsense.” This marks a shift from his June 13, 2025, optimism about resuming nuclear negotiations, aligning now with Israel’s escalation.
• The S. has bolstered its military presence in the region, with the USS Nimitz, previously stationed in the Pacific Fleet’s homeport of Bremerton, Washington, redeployed toward the Middle East to join the USS Carl Vinson, already positioned in the Persian Gulf. Additional U.S. assets, including B-52 bombers and F-22 stealth fighters, have been repositioned to bases in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, signaling a show of force despite official denials of direct U.S. military involvement.
• Tulsi Gabbard, the isolationist Director of National Intelligence (DNI), has downplayed the Iranian threat, arguing against U.S. military action in Iran, which creates tension with Israel and more hawkish elements in the Trump administration.
• Iran has sought a ceasefire through diplomatic channels, contacting Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to convey messages to Trump. On June 17, 2025, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that Iran “has no interest in further bloodshed” but would “proudly fight to the last drop of blood” to defend its land, people, and dignity, reflecting a dual approach of defiance and openness to de-escalation. Iran’s UN envoy, Amir Saeid Iravani, requested an emergency UN Security Council session, condemning Israeli strikes as “state terrorism” and a “flagrant violation of international law,” urging global condemnation to halt Israel’s actions.
• Russia,China, and Pakistan support Iran, with Pakistan supplying missile guidance kits and Houthis attacking Israeli ports, driving oil price surges and threatening the Strait of Hormuz.

• Iran has threatened to strike British and French bases in the region if they assist Israel, escalating tensions with Western powers.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu gave interviews to ABC and Fox Newsframing the conflict with Iran as a shared battle for Israel and the United States, emphasizing that Iran’s aggression threatens American cities and Western civilization. He said that Iran is interested in America’s destruction with chants of “Death to America” and two assassination attempts against President Donald Trump and other senior officials in the American government. He said that Iran was planning on engineering an ICMB capable of reaching American cities. He said, “Today, it’s Tel Aviv. Tomorrow, it’s New York. Look, I understand ‘America First’. I don’t understand ‘America Dead’. That’s what these people want. They chant ‘Death to America.’ So, we’re doing something that is in the service of mankind, of humanity, and it’s a battle of good against evil. America does, should, and does stand with the good. That’s what President Trump is doing, and I deeply appreciate his support”.

Projections

Key Points:

• Home Front Command on high alert, issuing missile alerts, orchestrating evacuations, and providing emergency shelters to displaced civilians in cities like Haifa and Tel Aviv.
• War may last months, with emergency protocols and mental health services fully mobilized to support resilience amid threats to daily life.

Assessment: The conflict risks regional spillover, particularly if U.S.\European assets are targeted. Civilian casualties and critical infrastructure damage are mounting, with no near-term de-escalation likely. However, meaningful strikes by the United States can lead to a quick cessation of hostilities, as B-2 Stealth Bombers have the capacity to efficiently and more rapidly strike underground nuclear facilities, leading to their full dismantlement.

הפוסט Situation Report | “Rising Lions”, Israel-Iran War | Day 5 הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

Overview

• Israel launched operation “Rising Lions” to dismantle Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. It used over 200 Israeli aircrafts in 5 separate waves attacking over 100 targets including top IRGC personnel, military sites and nuclear enrichment sites.
• Iran retaliated with over 100 ballistic missiles with some penetrating Israel’s defenses causing 13 casualties and dozens of injured civilians.
• Hezbollah announced it would not join the war against Israel demonstrating a dramatic shift in the balance of power.
• Israel carried out its tenth attack against the Houthis, and for the first time, this was a naval strike

Iran

Operation “Am KeLavi” (“Rising Lion”)

• Operation “Am KeLavi” began around 3:00 AM on Friday June 13 (Israel time), with the explicit objective of disrupting and severely damaging Iran’s nuclear program and military command structure.This was not a limited raid but a broad, multi-stage strike, planned for months and executed in total surprise, utilizing Israel’s far-reaching airpower and special operations. According to official reports, over 200 Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighter jets crossed more than 1,500 kilometers of airspace—including Syrian and Iraqi skies—reaching deep into western Iran. In just a few hours, these jets conducted at least five waves of attacks, targeting more than 100 distinct sites across five major provinces.
• The operational focus was the destruction of both “hardware” (nuclear and missile sites) and “software” (leadership and command structures), targeting both the physical infrastructure and the top echelons of Iran’s military and nuclear establishments.The IDF spokesperson’s illustrated maps identified five main provinces: Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, Khuzestan, and Ilam. In Tehran, the targets were senior IRGC generals and top nuclear scientists; Isfahan’s sites included the central facilities for uranium enrichment; Tabriz, Khuzestan, and Ilam (all along Iran’s western frontier) were struck for their concentrations of missile launchers, air defense batteries, and logistical infrastructure.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu made a public statement around 4:20 AM, at the peak of the operation, outlining its main goals: the destruction of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile factories, and much of its military capability.He revealed that Iran was in the process of assembling nine atomic bombs, and intended to build 10,000 ballistic missiles—some with one-ton warheads—within the next three years. Netanyahu concluded by warning that all of Israel’s military gains could be reversed if Iran achieved nuclear weapons status, framing the operation as a war for Israel’s very survival.

Mossad Special Operations and Combined Assault

• A major innovation in this operation was the Mossad’s role in orchestrating deep-cover special forces actions inside Iran, which operated in parallel and in coordination with the air assault.Mossad units, whose activities were later publicized, managed to infiltrate Iran and deploy advanced drone and missile systems atop remote mountains, setting ambushes for Iranian air defense sites. Their missions included destroying radar stations, launching platforms, and missile containers, severely degrading Iran’s capacity to fire back immediately at Israel. Mossad operatives built a secret base for explosive-laden drones deep inside Iran, specifically near Tehran. These drones were pre-positioned to target Iranian air defenses and missile launch sites, such as the Esfajabad base. The base could be activated remotely, enabling drone attacks without the need for Mossad personnel to be physically present at the time of the operation.

• In addition to direct sabotage, Mossad operations included supplying Israeli forces with real-time intelligence about Iranian air defense layouts, convoys, and command bunkers.As a result, the IAF was able to strike successive waves with high precision, focusing firepower where it mattered most, and adjusting mid-operation to exploit the chaos inside Iran’s command ranks. Video evidence later released clearly showed the destruction of sophisticated Iranian air defense sites, including at least one S-300 battery—an elite component of Iran’s strategic deterrent.
• High-precision guided weapons and explosive devices were concealed inside civilian trucks and other vehicles throughout Iran. These weapons were remotely detonated during the operation to destroy air defense assets and missile convoys. According to Israeli sources, targeting trucks transporting missiles meant that each truck destroyed resulted in the elimination of several operational missiles, amplifying the impact on Iran’s ability to retaliate. The operation employed “Trojan Horse” tactics, involvingyears of infiltration and use of advanced technology and human assets to evade Iranian counterintelligence. The highest level of secrecy was maintained by briefing Israel’s security cabinet only on unrelated matters, with the real nature of the operation concealed even from top officials until just before its launch. Only a small inner circle (including Netanyahu, Mossad chief David Barnea, and Minister Ron Dermer) was fully briefed.

Key Sites and Infrastructure Destroyed

• The Natanz uranium enrichment facility—the backbone of Iran’s nuclear ambitions—sustained particularly severe damage.Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization admitted as much, while the head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, personally informed Israeli President Herzog that the site was “critically damaged,” prompting immediate inspection for radioactive leaks. According to IDF statements, the attack targeted the underground enrichment hall, several stories of centrifuge arrays, and the associated infrastructure for nuclear fuel preparation. The assault was directed not only at aboveground structures but also at the vast, hardened underground complex. Additionally, peripheral sites such as the control center and power transformers were struck, further crippling operations at Natanz. A nuclear enrichment facility at Fordo (100 km southeast of Tehran) was reportedly hit. The IAEA confirmed there was no increase in radiation levels at Natanz, showing the precision of the strikes. Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization claimed there were no casualties at Natanz, though structural damage was acknowledged.
• Other targets included Iran’s strategic missile program and UAV factories.In western Iran, Israeli jets struck launch complexes housing at least 13 readied missile launchers within containers, as well as two major missile depots. These facilities were considered capable of threatening not only Israel but also much of the Middle East and even southern Europe. In Tabriz, Israeli attacks were reported on plants manufacturing solid propellant for Iran’s longer-range ballistic missiles, representing a critical blow to Iran’s ability to maintain and expand its missile arsenal. According to multiple sources, Israel achieved what its planners call “blue skies” over much of western Iran—meaning effective destruction or suppression of the entire local air defense network, opening a path for future raids.

Leadership Decapitation: Names and Roles of Confirmed Killed Officials

• Major General Hossein Salami, Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC since 2019, was killed in the attack. Salami was one of Iran’s most influential and vocal military leaders, responsible for crafting and executing anti-Israel military policy and overseeing missile and drone campaigns across the region. He was instrumental in shaping Iran’s strategic doctrine, and his loss leaves a significant leadership vacuum at the very top of the IRGC.
• Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces since 2016, was also eliminated.Bagheri coordinated Iran’s entire military establishment, ensuring the cooperation of the army, IRGC, and Iran’s missile and air defense divisions. His influence extended into Iran’s overseas military partnerships, especially in Syria, and he spearheaded the modernization of Iran’s missile systems. The elimination of Bagheri represents a major blow to the planning and execution of Iranian military policy.
• Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force since 2009, was killed in the raid.Hajizadeh oversaw all of Iran’s missile and drone forces, including both offensive and defensive operations. He was previously known for ordering the downing of a Ukrainian civilian airliner and for repeated public threats against Israel and Western powers. His death is a devastating loss to Iran’s missile command and its ability to coordinate aerial retaliation.
• Brigadier General Gholam Ali Rashid, Head of the IRGC’s Khatam-al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, was confirmed killed.Rashid’s headquarters coordinated all IRGC operations nationwide, functioning as a strategic “brain” for Iran’s unified military doctrine. The removal of Rashid severs a central node in Iran’s command and control structure, complicating its ability to wage war or launch a coherent retaliation.
• Davoud Shaykhian, Commander of the IRGC Air Defense Unit, was also killed.Shaykhian was responsible for managing and deploying Iran’s ground-to-air missile systems, vital for defending sensitive nuclear and military sites from airstrikes. With his loss, Iran’s air defense suffered not only material damage but also a leadership crisis at a critical operational level.
• Taher Pour, Commander of the IRGC Unmanned Aerial (Drone) Forces, died in the strike.Pour oversaw both the development and fielding of Iran’s drone capabilities for intelligence gathering and strike missions. As Iran has increasingly relied on drones for both direct attacks and proxy warfare, his loss is a setback to one of the most rapidly advancing arms of the Iranian military.
• Ali Shamkhani, advisor to the Supreme Leader and former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, was fatally wounded and later succumbed to his wounds.Shamkhani was a long-standing military and security strategist, previously serving as Defense Minister and Navy Commander. He provided continuity and strategic advice at the very highest echelons of Iran’s regime, and his death represents a loss of both institutional memory and real-time crisis management.
• Major General Gholamreza Mehrabi, Deputy Head of Intelligence for the Armed Forces General Staff, was killed.Mehrabi was integral in both the planning and implementation of military intelligence operations, and his loss disrupts Iranian efforts to monitor, anticipate, and counter Israeli actions.
• Major General Mehdi Rabbani, Deputy Head of Operations for the Armed Forces General Staff, was eliminated.Rabbani was responsible for military operational planning at a strategic level, and his removal further destabilizes Iran’s command structure during this critical period.
• Nuclear scientists Fereydoun Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi were among those killed.Abbasi, a former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization and a key architect of Iran’s nuclear efforts, and Tehranchi, head of Islamic Azad University in Tehran, were leading figures in advancing Iran’s nuclear research and technology. Their deaths deal a direct blow to Iran’s expertise and continuity in nuclear weapons development.
• According to reliable reports, at least 20 senior Iranian commanders and numerous key officers were killed overall.This represents a “decapitation strike” against Iran’s leadership, affecting not just military readiness but strategic and scientific capacity as well.

Iranian Response and Immediate Regional Fallout

• Iran attempted an immediate, if limited, response by launching UAVs toward Israeli territory, specifically the Eilat area, southern Syria, and the Lebanese coast.The attack was coordinated but ultimately unsuccessful, as all UAVs were intercepted by the Israeli and Jordanian air forces. The drones took a circuitous path, likely in an attempt to evade Israel’s missile defenses, but this maneuver failed.

• Iranian President Pezeshkian, facing intense internal pressure just days ahead of the next round of Oman-hosted talks (where figures like Witkoff would be present), declared that Iran must respond forcefully to the attack.Pezeshkian’s message was not only for external consumption—warning Israel and the West—but also a signal to Iran’s own regime and public, emphasizing that failure to retaliate could destabilize the regime from within.

International Response and Diplomatic Dynamics

• Former US President Donald Trump stated that he had previously warned Iran about such a scenario, and cautioned that any further Israeli strikes could be “brutal.”He urged all sides to pursue a deal before events escalated beyond control.
• US Secretary of State Rubio publicly emphasized that Israel’s operation was conducted unilaterally, with the US not directly involved and focused on protecting American troops in the region.He noted, however, that the US was given advance notice of the operation, and affirmed US readiness to aid in Israel’s defense if necessary.
• President Trump also noted US preparedness to support Israel militarily, but underlined the expectation of further negotiations with Iran soon.At the same time, the International Atomic Energy Agency officially confirmed Iran’s ongoing violations of its nuclear commitments, framing the attack as a response to clear, ongoing provocations.

• US and Israeli media outlets have confirmed that the apparent public tension between Netanyahu and Trump over a potential strike on Iran was a calculated deception designed to deceive Iranian intelligence. While public statements projected opposition and warned of escalation, behind the scenes Trump and his advisers privately supported Israel’s actions and effectively gave a green light. The strategy aimed to lower Iran’s alert level, ensure key targets like IRGC leadership and nuclear scientists remained active and visible, and maximize the impact of the Israeli operation

• Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Qalibaf, issued an incendiary statementin response to Israel’s operation, declaring, “The time for revenge has come, and it will be carried out by all means.” He vowed that Iran would not abandon the issue of the “Zionist entity” and would see the confrontation through to its completion.
• Iran announced its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with the United States.
• Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last Shah and a prominent opposition figure, issued a strong condemnation of the Iranian regime and its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.He accused Khamenei of recklessly dragging Iran into a war that does not serve the nation or its people, but rather the interests of the Islamic Republic and its leadership.

Israeli Home Front and Political Messaging

• At the start of the attack, Israel’s Home Front Command issued an “extreme alert” to citizens via their mobile phones, warning of a potential pre-emptive Iranian strike.Sirens sounded in the Tel Aviv and Jerusalem regions—not due to actual missile fire, but to prepare the public and emphasize adherence to new emergency instructions.
• The head of Home Front Command publicly stated that Israel is facing “intense days ahead,” and urged every citizen to know the location of their nearest shelter. This messaging was aimed both at public readiness and as a deterrent to Iran and its proxies.

Analysis

• Israel’s successful execution of this operation demonstrates a new degree of independence and operational reach, even without direct US participation. For years, Israel regarded large-scale strikes on Iran as only possible with American support. Israel’s achievements on the battlefield during the Iron Swords War coupled with the current geopolitical environment, allowed Israel to plan and execute this operation largely on its own, revealing both new vulnerabilities in Iran and a new level of Israeli strategic autonomy.
• Regionally, Israel’s demonstration of deep-strike capabilities—and the resulting “decapitation” of Iran’s senior leadership—signals a major shift in the balance of deterrence. By projecting military power 1,500 kilometers from its borders, Israel has positioned itself as a hegemonic force capable of enforcing “red lines” across the Middle East, with implications for Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and beyond.

• Had this attack occurred before October 7, 2023, it would likely have triggered immediate, massive retaliation from Hezbollah and Palestinian factions, exploiting the so-called “rocket belt” threat. However, after nearly two years of war, Iranian defeat on multiple regional fronts, the destruction of Iran’s S-300 air defense batteries in earlier attacks, and the expansion of Israel’s own air force, Israel was able to conduct this operation with minimal external interference or immediate proxy backlash.
• The fact that Hezbollah, Iran’s closest and most powerful proxy, is now weakened, disarmed, and deprived of much of its senior leadership is a central factor in tipping the balance of power in the region. Unlike in previous years—when Hezbollah posed a formidable rocket threat and held sway over the “Axis of Resistance”—the group is currently incapable of mounting a coordinated or meaningful response against Israel. This represents a dramatic shift in the regional strategic environment. Iran’s vision of a “ring of fire” around Israel, has unraveled. Now, with Hezbollah debilitated and unable to act after it publicly announced it would not join the fight against Israel, Iran’s grand design is collapsing before its eyes, and Tehran is left paying the price for engineering a failed multi-theater war.
• Iran’s weakness is now resonating both regionally and internationally. For years, the prevailing wisdom was that Iran’s proxy groups drew their strength from the might of their patron in Tehran, with the ayatollah regime serving as the anchor of the so-called “resistance axis.” Iran’s vulnerability is now exposed and its isolation becomes more apparent. It is isolated by its allies- Russia’s reaction was tepid, while China’s was purely diplomatic, offering little in terms of practical support. The Sunni Arab states, especially those in the Gulf who have long feared Iranian and proxy aggression, issued superficial condemnations but in reality, welcomed Iran’s weakened state.

International

• Britain, Australia, Canada, Norway, and New Zealand imposed sanctions on Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben Gvir, accusing them ofincitement to violence against Palestinians. The two are banned from entering these countries, and financial institutions are forbidden to do business with them. Foreign Minister Sa’ar sharply criticized this decision.
• Secretary of State Rubio condemned these countries for imposing sanctions, arguing it does not help end the war or bring back hostages, and reminded them that no such sanctions have been imposed on Hamas or the Houthis.
• Pakistan has voiced full diplomatic and moral support for Iran, with its Foreign and Defense Ministers urging Muslim countries to unite against Israel. Islamabad has endorsed Iran’s “right to self-defense” while coordinating at diplomatic forums and offering potential military cooperation.
• North Korea continues to provide Iran with critical strategic support, including missile and nuclear technology transfers. Reports indicate that Iran is using North Korean designs in its developing “Haj Qassem” guided ballistic missiles.
• The “a‑Sumoud” convoy, comprised of over 1,000 activists in buses and cars from Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya, was heading toward the Rafah crossingto protest the war and get aid to Gaza. Egyptian authorities detained and deported hundreds of convoy participants at Cairo airport. They blocked access to Sinai, preventing the convoy’s progress

Gaza

Hostage Deal

A new ceasefire and hostage deal is being discussed: During a 60-day ceasefire, eight hostages would be released on the first day, and two more on day 60; the remains of deceased hostages would be returned in three phases.

There would be negotiations to end the war, with Trump and Witkoff expected to guarantee the ceasefire’s stability (since Hamas fears Israel might resume fighting immediately after the hostages’ release). The Israeli leadership is currently considering this proposal.

Operational

• Division 36 is advancing into the city of Khan Younis from the south, whileDivision 98 entered from the north. When the two divisions link up, the encirclement of the Khan Younis area will be complete.
• Following the interrogation of a captured militant by the Shin Bet,188th Brigade soldiers located a tunnel shaft that led to the bodies of two deceased hostages. One has been identified as Yair Yaakov, kidnapped from Nir Oz by Islamic Jihad and murdered in captivity; the name of the second has not yet been cleared for publication. The number of hostages in Gaza has now dropped to 53, of whom 20 are still alive.
• A Givati Reconnaissance Unitidentified two militants disguised as women carrying sacks from a building used by Hamas. The force directed an aircraft that struck and killed the two.

Humanitarian Aid

• 20 Gazans employed by GHF were on a bus returning from a distribution pointwhen a Hamas gang attacked them, killing 8 civilians, wounding others, and reportedly kidnapping several.
  The Fund’s management stated this attack came after many threats, which had been ignored, and called on the international community to condemn Hamas.
• Despite this attack, three aid distribution points were opened.
• With government approval, 56 aid trucks entered Gaza through a breach in the fence called “Zikim Crossing,” but these were quickly looted by crowds in Gaza City.
• Despite Hamas claims of civilian deaths and threats to prevent people from taking Israeli-supplied food at distribution points, crowds of Gazans continue to come, gradually contributing to the success of the new aid mechanism.
• Yasser Abu-Shababadmitted ongoing contacts with the Palestinian Authority (PA), especially with its Preventive Security Force, which actively fights PA rivals like Hamas.
  He denied any connection to Abu Mazen but expressed respect for him as “the president.” Abu-Shabab stated at least 1,000 civilians arrived in eastern Rafah, that he receives thousands of requests to join the “Popular Forces” and to seek shelter, and expressed a desire to avoid further division in the Palestinian camp.
  He admitted to cooperating with GHF and said that Hamas gangs are responsible for shooting at the distribution points.
• Abu-Shabab formally announced the creation of an administrative alternative to Hamas called “Popular Forces”. Heinvited journalists, engineers, programmers, doctors, lawyers, and others to join them in eastern Rafah to build a new state and protect the dignity of the people, aiming to create the first administrative zone in Gaza without Hamas as a model for the rest of the Strip.
• Hamas’s “Saham” Unit(a kind of police commando responsible for securing food convoys and suppressing the population) claimed it captured an Abu-Shabab man in central Gaza who killed a Hamas member.

Domestic Israel

• A bill to dissolve the Knesset failed(61 against, 53 in favor). A new agreement was reached between Likud and the ultra-Orthodox parties: The goal is to draft 10,000 recruits within two years and half of each annual cohort within five years. Some sanctions will be approved, such as banning driver’s licenses and restricting travel abroad for draft evaders.
• This will allow the government tosurvive for at least six more months, enough time to finish the war.
• US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee washolding talks with Haredi Knesset members and leading rabbis, to prevent the collapse of the government, as such a collapse would weaken the American position against Iran.

Judea and Samaria

Operational

• After 30 hours of operations in Nablus’s Kasbah, at least 10 wanted suspects were arrested, 2 militants were killed, and several weapons were confiscated after searches in 400 buildings.

Diplomatic

• PA President Abbas sent a letter to French President Macron, where hecriticized Hamas’s actions on October 7, supported removing Hamas from Gaza and disarming them, and called for the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Lebanon

Diplomatic

• Following the Israeli strikes, Hezbollah issued a rare statement condemning Israel but stopped short of threatening to join the conflict or vowing retaliation—a break from previous practice. The Lebanese government, still recovering from the massive destruction and displacement pressured Hezbollah to avoid escalation.
• Hezbollah is shifting its strategy from relying on rockets and missiles to using drones (UAVs). With the maritime and air borders closed, and the land border with Syria blocked by continuous Syrian Border Guard and Lebanese security operations to prevent Iranian smuggling, Hezbollah has no choice but to move to local drone production.
• Drones are easier to produce domestically than rockets, and throughout the war, drone use—whether for attacks or surveillance—has proven more effective and harder to intercept than rockets.

Yemen

• The Houthis launched multiple missiles that were intercepted; some hit Palestinian homes. One missile fell on a Palestinian man’s house in Hebron, and on June 13, during the Iranian attacks, a Houthi missile hit a Palestinian town, injuring three Palestinians.
• Israel carried out its tenth attack against the Houthis, and for the first time, this was a naval strike. Sa’ar 6-class missile boats from the Israeli Navy struck Houthi ports with precision missiles from hundreds of kilometers away, launched from the northern Red Sea after long preparations in what is considered a precedent-setting attack.

Fallen Soldiers

הפוסט Israel Weekly War Summary Week #88 |June 8-June 14 ,2025 הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

Day 4 | Updated June 16^th, 2025 14:00PM (Israeli Standard Time GMT+3)

Operational Clock War: Starting +83Hrs.

2^nd report issued at +55Hrs.

For real-time updates click here

Military Developments

Israeli Operations

June 16^th:

• Air strikes targeting IRGC Quds Force sites in Tehran.
• Air strikes targeting sites:
  • Kermanshah, a major missile storage and deployment facility.
  • Natanz nuclear facility operating nearly 1000 advanced centrifuges enriching up to 60% purity (located near to Isfahan).
  • Parchin, Nuclear weapons research facility.
  • Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, a highly fortified and deeply buried uranium enrichment site near the city of Qom.

June 15^th:

• An aerial attack in the airport in Mashad targeting the airport itself and a Boeing 747 tanker. Mashad is located around 2,300km (~1,430 miles\~1,255NM) from Israel, and is the furthest attack Israel has commenced from Israeli soil.
• 3 High ranked officials from the intelligence forces were eliminated, among them, the IRGC Intelligence commander and his deputy.

Night of June 14^th

• Targeted more than 80 targets (with total of more than 170 targets since the beginning of the war) were hit, including nuclear sites, IRGC headquarters, Iranian Ministry of Defense headquarters, the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND)[1] headquarters and the Iranian nuclear archive.
• IAF attacked in Sanaa, Yemen. The Houthi’s chief of staff, Mohammed Abd al-Karim al-Ghamari was reported to be the target, but his elimination is yet to be confirmed.
• Senior Officials Eliminated:
  • Gholam-Reza Marhabi: Head of Intelligence Directorate, Iranian Armed Forces
  • Reza Mozaffarinia: Head of SPND
  • Esmail Qaani: Chief commander of IRGC Quds Force
  • Mohammad Kazemi: Chief commander of IRGC Intelligence
  • Hassan Mohaghegh: Deputy chief commander of IRGC Intelligence

Iranian Attacks

• Around 10:00 ballistic missile launched by the Houthis against Israel was successfully intercepted.
• Night of June 15-16^th: In a wave of ballistics missiles, Iran launched more than 60 missiles, with 5 hits. As of now, 8 Israeli citizens have been confirmed as murdered during this wave, more than 200 injured in all 5 scenes.
• For the first time, Iran reportedly used the Fattah-2, hypersonic missiles. The missile is capable of reaching speeds of 5-20 Mach, using spherical solid-fuel engine. There is no official confirmation of the launching of a hypersonic missile.
• The American consulate in Tel-Aviv sustained minor damage from the strike and will remain closed.
• Nights of June 13-14 and 14-15: Iran launched at least 3 waves of ballistic missiles each night targeting Israeli cities killing at least 10 Israelis civilians including children in Bat Yam, of which a Ukrainian family staying in Israel, and 5 members of a single family in Tamra and injuring more than 200 civilians.
  • Iran launched over 60 ballistic missiles targeting Israel.
  • Constant UAV launches throughout the days.
  • Iranian attacks targeted Israeli energy facilities and fuel production sites in the north of Israel. The facilities are still operational.
• Regional Proxies: Yemen’s Houthis fired ballistic missiles targeting central Israel while at the same time, as an Iranian ballistic attack wave, marking the first public coordination with Iran.

Inside Iran

• Iranian parliament drafting decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
• It is reported by several news outlets that Khamenei is probably hiding in a shelter in Lavizan, Tehran.
• Iranian authorities captured a man and accused him to be an Israeli spy and was executed to death by hanging.
• Videos circulating on social media show people chant “death to the dictator”, “death to Khamenei” from residential balconies at night.
• For the second day in a row, massive traffic is seen on the roads exiting Tehran as citizens evacuating the city as per the advisory notice by the IDF.
• Tehran Grand Bazaar (market) is closed for business. It is important to understand that Tehran’s market is not just a market, it is a key part of Tehran’s economy and culture.
• Communist Party of Iran (CPI) calls for a national uprising to overthrow the current regime. In parallel, the CPI is also anti-Israel and U.S.A.
• Narmak, Tehran: Street gatherings chanting “death to Khamenei” chants.
• Mohammad Pakpour was appointed as the new IRGC Commander.
• Pakistan issued an announcement supporting Iran. On June 15^th, a large number of containers and trucks spotted carrying military equipment and missiles entered Iran from Pakistan through Baluchistan province.

Geopolitical Reactions

• United States: Implicitly approved Israeli operations, but did not approve the elimination of Khamenei himself; President Trump warned Iran to negotiate or face “full strength” U.S. military response. “We are not currently engaged in the war, but may join later”.
• United Kingdom: Deployed additional jets to the region, signaling potential support for Israel. That, as opposed to the earlier press release that called to “step back and reduce tensions”.
• Iran:
  • Refuses any negotiations. The Ayatollah regime told Qatar and Oman they would not negotiate until complete retaliation.
  • Threatened to strike U.S., UK, and French bases if they intervene. Nuclear talks with the U.S. mediated by Oman were canceled.
• Iranian Diaspora: In several cities across Europe and in Australia, Iranian diaspora groups demonstrated with the pre-revolution Iranian flag along side Israeli flags.
• Pakistan: As of June 16^th, afternoon, Pakistan closed all border crossings with Iran.

Projections

• Israel prolongs it state of emergency up to June 30^th indicating an approximately two-week long campaign.
• IDF Spokesperson issued an evacuation notice in Farsi to the citizens in Tehran. The notice became viral in social media but was not published in the Iranian official media channel.
• Some officials in Israel expect the war to last “weeks, not days” with further strikes on nuclear and military targets.
• Iranian Response: Likely to escalate ballistic missile attacks and leverage proxies (Houthis, Hezbollah).

Assessment: The conflict risks regional spillover, particularly if U.S.\European assets are targeted. Civilian casualties and critical infrastructure damage are mounting, with no near-term de-escalation likely.

June 16^th attacks: Quds force headquarters | Credit: IDF Spokesperson

Credit: IDF Spokesperson

Credit: IDF Spokesperson

People Fleeing Teheran | Credit: Telegram Chanel “Ground News”

Site hit by Iranian Missile | Credit: Telegram Chanel “Ground News”

Missiles debris from Iranian missile into Israel | Credit: Telegram Chanel “Ground News”

[1] The equivalent of DARPA.

הפוסט Situation Report | “Rising Lions” Israel-Iran War |Day 4 הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

Overview

• In the early morning hours of June 13, 2025, Israel launched an all-out preemptive strike to remove the mounting existential threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile program. This carefully-planned strike is unprecedented in modern military history, combining the targeted killings of senior officials and scientists, including the top leadership of the Iranian armed forces and IRGC; direct strikes of the main nuclear sites; direct strikes of ballistic missile silos and launcher sites; other strategic infrastructures; and the targeting of Iran’s air-defense systems and radar alert systems; among other means.
• Among those eliminated are IRGC Commander Hossein Salami; Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Mohammad Hossein Bagheri; the entirety of the IRGC Air Force high command, including the Air Force commander; senior advisor to the Leader, Ali Shamkhani; and at least 9 nuclear scientists.
• Israeli officials say the Natanz nuclear site was badly damaged, alongside the nuclear site in Esfhan. The underground nuclear site in Fordow has been damaged, the extent of which will only be assessed in the coming days.
• A major ballistic and cruise missile site was destroyed in western Iran, carved deep into the mountains and was previously featured in a propaganda video of the regime.
• US President Donald Trump called an emergency cabinet meeting, reportedly, to assess whether the US should intervene in the situation. It is estimated that the US Air Force can target efficiently the underground nuclear sites in Iran and finish the job, while for Israel it can take a longer time. Trump urged Iran to come back to the negotiations table to avoid further attacks. The US State Department issued a statement that Israel launched a unilateral strike, and the US is not involved. Meanwhile, Iraq asked Iran not to target US bases in its territory.
• The Iranian retaliation on Friday and Saturday nights included a barrage of over 100 ballistic missiles, each carrying a large warhead of up to 1 ton of explosives. As a result, at least 10 innocent Israeli civilians were killed, including children, and over 200 were wounded. A private home complex in Rishon LeZion was utterly destroyed, and an entire part of a residential building in Bat Yam collapsed, leading to multiple casualties and missing people. Other buildings were hit in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, including skyscrapers. Israel has not seen a missile attack of this scale in its history, despite having endured over 30,000 rockets and missiles from Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen.
• Removing the Iranian nuclear threat and the ballistic missile threat is a signature achievement by Israel that will carry untold benefits for the free world, the West, and the Middle East. Denuclearization by deeds, not words, assures Iran will never achieve the same capabilities as North Korea. Iran cannot be allowed to accumulate an arsenal of nuclear weapons that threaten the free world.  The radical axis led by China and Russia cannot be bolstered by a nuclear equipped Iranian ally in the heart of the Middle East.
• The defanging of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capacities can also remove a significant barrier on the path for Israeli-Arab normalization, by removing a major deterrent factor in the eyes of Saudi Arabia and other potential partners, while demonstrating the immense strategic value of allying with Israel as a clear regional superpower.
• This operation is still unfolding, with further developments expected in coming hours, days, and weeks.
• Iran’s nuclear program has been identified by the United States as a threat to American interests, and both the current and previous administrations, across political lines, asserted that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. Israel views Iran as the primary existential threat targeting the Jewish State, vowing to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The Iranian regime’s commitment to wage terrorism against Israel, the United States, and the West, coupled with its record-high nuclear activity, has made it the most alarming flashpoint in today’s geopolitical sphere.

This report will lay out the main flashpoints of this operation, and will be continuously updated in accordance with developments on the ground.

An Israeli Air Force plane taking off to strike in Iran | Source: IDF Spokesperson

Background

Iran’s nuclear program has reached new and alarming records in the recent period.

• Non-compliance with its nuclear commitments: The IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency – has declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations on June 12, being a party to the NPT, for the first time in the past 20 years. In response, Iran declared the activation of a third enrichment site. Its foreign ministry said it has “no choice but to respond”.
• Refusal to cooperate with the IAEA inspectors: On June 9, the IAEA declared that Iran fails to cooperate with its inspectors, in a way that hampers effective inspections. “Unless and until Iran assists the agency in resolving the outstanding safeguards issues, the Agency will not be in a position to provide assurance that Iran’s nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful,” said IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi.
• Nuclear threshold state: The agency’s recent report from May 2025 painted an alarming picture of the advanced stage of Iran’s nuclear program: 233kg of 60% enriched uranium, which makes Iran capable of manufacturing a sufficient amount of weapons-grade uranium, enriched at 90%, within 2-3 days for its first nuclear device and 1 month for 9 nuclear devices. Iran has also depleted its stock of near 20% enriched uranium, which has a civilian use in research reactors but constitutes an important step toward high-level enrichment levels.
• Dangerously close to weaponization: Israel says Iran has accumulated a sufficient amount of material for 15 nuclear devices, and has made “unprecedented steps” as it relates to “weaponization”, which makes it “close to obtaining nuclear weapons”, per Prime Minister Netanyahu. An IDF spokesperson revealed that “Iranian nuclear scientists secretly conducted experiments to advance all components necessary to build a nuclear weapon.” He added that “this is conclusive proof that the Iranian regime is acting toward obtaining nuclear weapons in the coming period.”
• New underground nuclear facilities: The IAEA and the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) have revealed that Iran has developed secret underground nuclear facilities designed to withstand airstrikes and conceal advanced enrichment activities. Satellite imagery and intelligence assessments point to deep excavation sites near Natanz and Fordow, raising serious concerns about undisclosed centrifuge production and uranium enrichment far beyond civilian needs. These sites, mostly hidden from international oversight, suggest deliberate Iranian efforts to maintain a parallel, undeclared nuclear program in violation of its commitments.
• Aggressive rhetoric: Senior Iranian officials have recently issued a series of escalating threats. On November 29, 2024, Iran warned that an IAEA resolution would trigger “immediate technical measures in response.” In April 2025, Ali Shamkhani threatened with the “expulsion of IAEA inspectors and ceasing cooperation” and the “transferring [of] enriched material to safe and undisclosed locations.” In February, President Pezeshkian declared: “If you strike a hundred… we will build a thousand… You can hit the buildings… but not those who build it.” He added, “We will never accept the elimination of our nuclear research.” Foreign Minister Araghchi warned: “If their position is zero enrichment, we will no longer have any talks… we are not joking with anyone.”
• Rejecting peaceful proposals: Since April, US President Donald Trump led bilateral negotiations to attempt to find a peaceful diplomatic solution to address the Iranian nuclear program. A series of talks have been held in Oman and Rome, in which the US confirmed to have submitted several proposals for a deal. Iran’s senior officials flatly rejected any restrictions on uranium enrichment, while President Trump made it clear that the United States will not accept Iran obtaining nuclear weapons, and that there can be “no enrichment”. By June 3, a senior Iranian source confirmed Tehran was preparing to reject the American proposal.
• Iran has also ramped up its ballistic missile program, amounting to a real existential threat on Israel. According to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s statement and to the readout of the IDF Spokesperson’s update, Iran has accumulated thousands of ballistic missiles that can reach every point in Israel, each carrying up to 1 ton of explosives. It is intending to obtain 10,000 such missiles within 3 years and 20,000 within 6 years. “For a country of Israel’s size, such a threat is intolerable,” said Netanyahu.

This comes in the wider context of its multi-front, multidimensional attack by the Iranian regime on Israel as from October 7, 2023. Iran’s new position makes it more dangerous than ever before, with its nuclear program reaching unprecedented levels; while at the same time more vulnerable and exposed than ever before, with its frontal collapse in tatters.

• Israel’s continued effort to erode Iran’s proxy armies and partners around the region in retaliation for the attacks has resulted in the decimation – to varying degrees – of all of its frontal defense. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen—all suffered severe damage or outright collapsed.
• The war in Gaza is still unfolding, with the IDF continuing its pressure on Hamas to release the remaining 55 Israeli hostages and lay down its arms; Hezbollah’s status in Lebanon was gravely diminished, and future political developments in the current, novel climate will determine the Israel-Lebanon relations in the coming period; the Assad regime in Syria collapsed, making way to Ahmed A-Sharaa’s jihadist leadership, with Israel taking over the Syrian Golan and destroying the vast majority of remaining weaponry in Syria; and Yemen’s Houthi militia was badly hit by Israeli and American strikes and continues to pose a serious though remote threat.
• Israel admitted to striking Iran for the first time in history in October 2024, and reportedly successfully eroded key elements of its air defenses.
• The Iranian regime attacked Israel directly twice, for the first time in history, in April and later in October 2024, launching over 500 projectiles at Israel—ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones.

Key modes of Israeli engagement in Iran

Israel has admitted acting in the following combined vectors, that form a multiprong effort to target Iran’s soft belly:

• Neutralizing air defenses and radars across all of western Iran, including dozens of radars and ground-to-air missile launchers.
• Targeted killing of senior political and military officials, disrupting the chain of command and taking down key operational figures. An Israeli security source reports that significant intelligence was gathered and surveillance was conducted to expose and target senior figures in Iran’s defense establishment and nuclear program, who were later eliminated. This was part of a broader covert campaign aimed at degrading Iran’s strategic missile infrastructure.
• Targeted killing of senior nuclear scientists, disrupting the accumulated know-how ecosystem and denying Iran quick recovery of its nuclear leadership.
• Airstrikes of key nuclear sites, targeting directly the sites where uranium enrichment and other key components of the nuclear program are undertaken.
• Airstrikes of key ballistic missile sites, targeting directly the sites where missiles are manufactured and stored.
• National infrastructure sites, including the South Pars oil refinery and two oil, gasoline, and fuel depots around Tehran.
• On-the-ground activity by Mossad operatives: According to Israeli media reports, the Mossad conducted the following activities in Iran:
• Strategic Missile Strikes: Mossad operatives deployed precision-guided weapon systems in central Iran, positioned near Iranian surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries. These systems were activated in coordination with Israeli Air Force strikes and accurately hit their targets simultaneously.
• Air Defense Suppression: In a separate covert operation, Mossad agents embedded advanced strike systems within civilian vehicles. Upon the launch of the surprise Israeli offensive, these systems were triggered, successfully neutralizing key Iranian air defense installations.
• Drone Offensive on Missile Launchers: Mossad established an internal base of explosive-laden drones, smuggled deep into Iran long before the attack. During the Israeli strike, the drones were launched against surface-to-surface missile launchers at the Esfajabad base near Tehran, eliminating threats to both strategic and civilian targets in Israel.

The skies over Iran are completely open to the Israeli Air Force—this is called absolute air superiority, and it is unlikely to change in the coming weeks.

Targeted sites

The IDF released a map showing the main attacked targets:

The IDF also published an illustration of the attacked air defense systems:

An infographic showing the elimination of nuclear scientists (yellow) and senior militrary offcials (red) in Tehran| Source: IDF Spokesperson

According to Iranian media, various media outlets, and viral videos on social media, it seems that the following sites have been targeted so far:

• The Natanz nuclear site: Iranian state television reported that the Natanz enrichment facility, located approximately 225 km south of Tehran in Isfahan Province, was “hit several times,” showing footage of heavy smoke billowing from the site.  Islamic Republic of Iran News Network (IRINN), broadcast footage on June 13, 2025, described as smoke from explosions in Natanz after Israeli strikes. Reports indicate the facility was “heavily damaged” or “completely destroyed,” with explosions causing fires and producing thick plumes of smoke visible from a distance. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed the attack but reported no increase in radiation levels, suggesting no immediate nuclear material breach. Iranian authorities confirmed the destruction of critical infrastructure, including centrifuge cascades essential for uranium enrichment. The head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency stated the facility was “completely destroyed”.
• Tabriz Military Airbase: Network News of the Islamic Republic’s Voice and Vision confirmed Israeli attacks on targets in Tabriz. Videos received by Iran International (@IranIntl) showed the intensity of explosions in Tabriz, with some Iranian media reporting the Fakouri Airbase as the target. The Airbase sustained damage to runways, hangars, and possibly aircraft, but specific details are still limited.
• A missile production facility in Shiraz was targeted, believed to produce fuel and components for Shahab-1/Scud-B missiles and conduct research and development for Iran’s ballistic missile program. The missile facility likely sustained damage to production lines and research facilities, though specific details are limited. Network News of the Islamic Republic’s Voice and Vision confirmed Israeli attacks on targets in Shiraz. The sourcing for Shiraz is less detailed compared to Natanz or Tabriz, with Iranian state TV providing the primary confirmation of attacks in the city.
• The Bakhtaran Missile Base in Kermanshah, the base is a strategic site and a potential launching point for ballistic missiles-Iranian media reported strikes in Kermanshah, as cited by multiple outlets. Explosions were reported across Kermanshah, with the missile base identified as a primary target due to its role in Iran’s missile program. Damage to the Bakhtaran Missile Base likely included missile storage and launch facilities, though specific details are not well-documented.
• A strategic site storing ballistic and cruise missiles in western Iran, carved deep into the mountain and previously featured in a propaganda video of the regime. The video showed multiple missiles laid in underground bunkers, ready to launch, featuring the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, and Commander of the IRGC Air Force Amir Ali Hajizadeh, both since eliminated.
• Tehran: Multiple military sites in Tehran were targeted, with residential areas also hit. Damaged structures, including buildings and vehicles, were reported. Key figures, including IRGC chief Hossein Salami and other commanders, were killed. State TV reported residential areas in Tehran were hit, with blasts heard northeast of the capital. Iranian state TV reported the targeting of the IRGC’s Headquarters. The facility sustained severe structural damage, with command-and-control centers, communication systems, and operational infrastructure destroyed. Iranian state media footage and an IRGC-affiliated Telegram channel (Sepah News) showed thick smoke billowing from the site, indicating significant destruction. A key facility associated with Iran’s Ministry of Defense, responsible for military coordination and missile development programs was hit with fires reported at the site and adjacent facilities. A mixed civilian-military airport Mehrabad Airbase, housing Iranian Air Force (IRIAF) assets, including fighter jets and air defense systems sustained damage, A fire was reported at the airbase, with damage to military infrastructure, including runways and possibly aircraft.
• Surgical strikes targeting military personnel hit residential neighborhoods in northeast Tehran, home to IRGC officials. Multiple apartment buildings were damaged or collapsed, with images showing debris, destroyed vehicles, and fires.
• The Fordow nuclear site was reported to have been hit but details remain sketchy.
• There were reports of serious disruptions in internet, WhatsApp, and electricity across Iran-Viral videos and posts on social media mentioned disruptions in internet, WhatsApp, and electricity. These disruptions were attributed to the impact of the strikes on critical infrastructure, though specific locations or causes (e.g., targeted attacks on power grids or cyber operations) have not been detailed.
• On June 13–14, 2025, Israeli strikes targeted Iran’s energy infrastructure:
  • South Pars: Israel hit the South Pars gas field in Bushehr province, the world’s largest natural gas reserve, and multiple fuel depots in Tehran. Iranian state media, including Tasnim and Fars, reported a drone strike on Phase 14 refineries of South Pars, causing a fire that halted 12 million cubic meters of gas production until extinguished, with only one unit remaining offline.
  • Shahran: In Tehran, the Iranian Oil Ministry confirmed strikes on two fuel depots: Shahran in the northwest and another south of the city. An AFP journalist witnessed the Shahran depot ablaze, with massive explosions threatening nearby residential areas, as reported by a ministry official. The Shahran depot, handling 8 million liters of gasoline daily and storing three days’ worth of Tehran’s fuel needs, suffered significant damage.
  • Additional strikes hit a gas facility near Bandar Abbas and the Fajr Jam Gas Refining Company, though details are less confirmed.
  • No direct civilian casualties were reported from these energy strikes, but the broader offensive killed at least 78 people, according to Iranian state media – mostly civilians.
  • The attacks raised global energy market concerns, with oil prices potentially rising to $86–$100 per barrel.
  • Iran vowed retaliation, canceling scheduled nuclear talks with the Americans in Oman.
  • Reports indicate the possible elimination of Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, though this remains unverified.

Building complexes in Tehran where targeted killings of senior Iranian officials took place | Compliation: Iran News t.me/@hadshotiran

The Natanz Nuclear site | Credit: Open Source Centre, © Airbus Defence and Space

The Shiraz Military Airbase

The Kermanshah Missile Facilities

Source: Iran News t.me/@hadshotiran

A ballistic missile factory in Kermanshah, Saturday | Source: Satellite images; Iranian social media

Fire erupts following the IDF strike in the Shiraz military base that included a ballistic missile factory

The military site storing ballistic and cruise missiles in western Iran was carved into the mountain and previously featured in an IRGC propaganda video, with Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Bagheri and Commander of the IRGC Air Force Hagizadeh, both since eliminated | Source: IDF Spokesperson

Ballistic missile launchers attacked in Iran | Source: IDF Spokesperson

Eliminated targets

• Ali Shamkhani, Head of Iran’s nuclear program and senior advisor to the Supreme Leader.  Sources: Iran International and Iranian State Media. Confirmed by Iran and Israel.

Military Leadership hit

• Commander of Khatam al-Anbiya (Emergency Command Center) – Khatam-e-Olam – Ali Rashid. Confirmed by Iran and Israel. Commander of the Iranian regime’s emergency security system. Responsible in routine times for readiness and force-building for war for the Iranian regime. Actively advanced the plan for the destruction of the State of Israel. IRIB and Tasnim News Agency: Confirmed Rashid’s death.

• Commander of the Revolutionary Guards – Hossein Salami: Confirmed by Iran and Israel. Responsible for operating Iran’s military power in the Middle East. Took part in suppressing opponents of the Iranian regime. Commanded the ground, air, and naval forces, the “Quds Force” deployed across the Middle East, and internal forces in Iran (“Basij”). Iranian State TV and IRGC related media confirmed his death, he is the most senior Iranian official to have been eliminated, even more senior than Solemini, the former Quds Force Commander, who was eliminated in 2020. Sources: Iranian State TV, IRGC Media

• Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces – Mohammad Hossein Bagheri: Confirmed by Iran and Israel. The highest-ranking military commander in Iran. Holds broad decision-making authority within Iran’s security apparatus. Responsible for coordination among the various Iranian security bodies. Sources: Fars News Agency, Mehr News Agency and IRIB.

• Commander of the IRGC Air Force – Amir Ali Hajizadeh: Confirmed by Iran and Israel. The central figure in Iran responsible for direct attacks against the State of Israel. Commanded Iran’s missile attacks on Israel in 2024. A highly regarded commander within Iran’s security leadership. Led the attack on Saudi oil facilities in September 2019. Sources: Israel Defense Forces, Iranian News Agencies.

• Entire Air force command eliminated together with Commander Hajizadeh, in an underground headquarters to prepare to strike Israel. Sources: IRGC Official Reports, Tasnim News Agency Confirmed by Iran.
• Taher Pour – Commander of the IRGC Air Force’s Drone Command. Sources: IRGC Statements, Iranian Local Media. Confirmed by Iran only (strike claimed by Israel)

• Daoud Shikhian – Commander of the IRGC Air Force’s Air Defense Headquarters. Sources: Iranian State Media. Confirmed by Iran.

• Amir Mousavi – Commander of the Iranian Army Reported only (unconfirmed).

• Amir Shahram Irani – Commander of the Iranian Navy Reported only (unconfirmed).
• Ali Reza Pourdastan – Former Commander of the Army Ground Forces Reported only (unconfirmed).
• Kioumars Heydari – Commander of the Army Ground Forces Reported only (unconfirmed).
• Nasirzadeh – Commander of the Air Force Reported only (unconfirmed).

Credit: IDF Spokesperson

Eliminated IRGC Subordinate Commanders

• Mohammad Pakpour – Commander of the IRGC Ground Forces Reported only (unconfirmed).
• Ali Reza Tangsiri – Commander of the IRGC Navy Reported only (unconfirmed).
• Esmail Qaani – Commander of the IRGC Quds Force Reported only (unconfirmed).
• Ali Reza Soleimani – Commander of the Basij Force Reported only (unconfirmed).

Nuclear scientists

• Israel confirmed the targeted killing of 9 nuclear scientists.

• Dr. Fereydoon Abbasi Davani: Confirmed by Iran and Israel. Sources: Reuters citing state TV, Tasnim. Former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (2011–2013). Senior nuclear scientist and former member of Parliament He was almost eliminated in 2010 by Israel. Reuters cites Iranian state TV which confirmed his death. Tasnim News Agency (IRGC-affiliated) confirmed Abbasi’s death, describing him as a nuclear scientist and former head of the Atomic Energy Organization.

• Dr. Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi: Confirmed by Iran and Israel. Sources: IRIB, Tasnim, Reuters. Prominent nuclear scientist and head of Islamic Azad University in Tehran. IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) and Tasnim confirmed Tehranchi’s death in Israeli airstrikes.

• Tasnim reported the killing of four other nuclear scientists:
• Abdolhamid Manouchehr (also reported as Abdulhamid Minouchehr) – Involved in neutron source and trigger development. Reported only (unconfirmed).

• Ahmadreza Zolfaghari Daryani – Nuclear physicist and professor at Shahid Beheshti University. Reported only (unconfirmed).

• Amirhossein Feghi (also spelled Amirhossein Fakhahi) – Classified researcher in nuclear/defense technology. Reported only (unconfirmed).

• Akbar Motalebi‑Zadeh (referred to as Motalibizadeh)– Chemical/military-engineering specialist in enrichment programs. Reported only (unconfirmed).

Targeted sites

Targeted Air Defense Systems

According to the IDF, the following air defense systems were destroyed by the IAF and Mossad operatives:

• SA-69 (S-300 Copy): Estimated interception range: 300 km
• SA-68: Estimated interception range: 85 km
• SA-71: Estimated interception range: 24 km
• SA-63: Estimated interception range: 105 km

Israeli media outlets reported on the Mossad activity as follows:

• Mossad advanced preparation: Over recent months, Mossad infiltrated Iran, covertly built forward bases, and stockpiled precision missiles and loitering drones close to Iranian SAM sites.
• Inside-Iran launch: When Israel’s air force opened its broader strike last night, Mossad’s pre-positioned weapons were launched from within Iran, providing an internal “first strike” on Iranian air defences.
• Multi-layered operation: At least three parallel Mossad units—commando teams, vehicle-borne strike kits, and remote-controlled launch sites—were synchronized to cripple Iran’s air-defence network and clear the way for Israeli aircraft.

Aerial Combat Projectiles: Missiles

The following Aerial Combat Missiles used by Iran’s Ballistic Missiles are effective for striking Israel:

• Shahab-3: Effective range ~1,300 km
• Ghadr: Effective range 1,600 km
• Emad: Effective range 1,600–2,500 km
  Khorramshahr 1–4: Effective range 2,000–3,000 km
• Fateh-1: Effective range 1,400 km
• Haj Qasem: Effective range 1,400 km
• Kheibar Shekan: Effective range 1,450 km
• Sejjil: Effective range up to 2,000 km

*** According to reports, Iran possesses ballistic capabilities that rely heavily on North Korean and Chinese technologies. It is therefore plausible that advanced technologies have been transferred to Iran and integrated into its weapons arsenal — potentially including hypersonic missiles.

Aerial Combat Projectiles: Drones

• Shahed-129: Effective range 1,700 km
  Gaza: Effective range 2,000 km
• Mohajer: Effective range 2,000 km
• Arash-2: Effective range 2,000 km
• Shahed-136: Effective range 2,500 km
• Kaman-122: Effective range 3,000 km

Iranian retaliation and the Israeli home front

Retaliation

• Over the first 24 hours, until Friday night, Israel anticipated a significant response by Iran, with Prime Minister Netanyahu advising Israelis to prepare for prolonged stays in safe shelters and that “there are no free wars”. The Iranians refer to their planned retaliation as “Operation Assurance of Truth 3.”Over the course of Friday morning, Iran launched some 100 drones toward Israel, that were reportedly mostly intercepted far from Israeli territory above the skies of Jordan and Saudi Arabia, among others. Jordan announced that its military downed several drones that penetrated its airspace.
• On Friday night (June 13), Iran launched several barrages of ballistic missiles, causing heavy damage around Tel Aviv, that included the direct hit on skyscrapers, and other places in central Israel. In Rishon LeZion, a complex of six residential buildings were utterly destroyed, with 2 fatalities and several people injured. Another fatality was reported elsewhere around Tel Aviv.
• On Saturday night (June 14), Iran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles that directly hit a residential building in Bat Yam, causing its partial collapse, with at least 10 people killed, including children, and 200 injured in the building and its immediate surroundings. Some were reported missing and were buried for long hours in the rubble. In Rehovot, a direct impact caused some injuries, as well as elsewhere in central Israel. A two-story building was reportedly hit in Jerusalem. Around 40 ballistic missiles were launched toward northern Israel, hitting Tamra, an Arab town in northern Israel, 1 fatality and 13 injured were reported.
• Additionally, some 7 drones were intercepted above Israel’s skies and beyond, including in the Galilee region. The Jordanian Air Force also downed drones above the country’s skies.

Interceptions in Tel Aviv, Israel | Source: Social media

Heavy damages to houses in Rishon Lezion | Source: Social media

Remainders of an Iranian ballistic missile in a private home, central Israel | Source: Social media

Damage to a collapsed building in Bat Yam, Israel, leading to at least 10 fatalities and multiple injured and missing | Source: Social media

Iranian drone intercepted above the skies of the Galilee by the Israeli Air Force | Source: Social media

Homefront situation in Israel

• Starting at 03:00 (Friday morning, June 13), immediate changes to the Home Front Command’s defense guidelines took effect. According to the announcement, all regions of the country will shift from a “full activity” status to “essential activity only.” A siren went off to alert Israelis on the new emergency situation, with pop-up emergency messages sent to all mobile phones.
• Some assessments by Israeli officials indicate that the conflict with Iran is expected to last at least two weeks.
• Gatherings in public spaces and work in non-essential locations will be prohibited, in accordance with updated lists issued by the Ministry of Defense.
• Emergency Civilian Order for Continuity of Essential Services: Due to the current security situation and the declaration of a “special state” in the home front, and following consultation with Defense Minister Israel Katz, Labor Minister Yoav Ben-Tzur has signed an emergency order.
  • The order permits employees in essential service sectors to continue working within areas under the special home front status, in accordance with Home Front Command safety guidelines.
  • This includes sectors such as: water, electricity, fuel, gas, emergency medical care (hospitals, geriatric institutions, dialysis centers, nursing homes), community health services, food supply, welfare institutions, transportation, ports, local authorities, government ministries, and industries supporting the military.
  • In case of workforce shortages, the relevant government ministry may request that the Emergency Economy Administration consider issuing mandatory workforce recruitment orders

This order enables the government to mobilize employees as needed to ensure the functioning of critical infrastructure and services during a state of emergency.

• Ben Gurion International Airport has been evacuated and is expected to remain closed for at least three days. All flights to and from Israel have been canceled.
• The Ministry of Health has instructed all hospitals to shift to an exceptional emergency mode, which includes relocating to protected underground facilities and canceling all non-urgent activities.
• All hospitals have been instructed to suspend outpatient and elective services, including non-life-saving surgeries, routine treatments, and clinic visits. Health maintenance organizations (HMOs) and maternal-child health centers will also halt routine services, except for essential activities, primarily dialysis.
• Magen David Adom (MDA) urges the public to donate blood, with priority given to individuals with blood type O.
• All educational institutions have suspended classes. Approximately 2.4 million students, from kindergartens through high schools, have remained at home.
• The public is urged to follow Home Front Command instructions as published through official channels.
• Home Front Command instructions to residents include: after hearing an air raid siren, do not leave the protected shelter after ten minutes unless specifically instructed by the Home Front Command. It is prohibited to post on WhatsApp, Facebook, TikTok, or any other social media platform the locations of missile impacts or interceptions.
• Synagogues to Remain Closed on Shabbat Amid National Emergency.
• 300% Increase in Shoppers; Massive Queues at Retail Chains: There has been a sharp rise in demand for batteries, transistors, and generators, with many customers stocking up on water bottles, milk, and snacks. According to Home Front Command guidelines, Strauss, Tnuva, and Osem factories continue to operate normally, as do supermarket branches and pharmacy chains selling essential products, along with bakeries. Store opening hours remain unchanged, and branches are functioning as usual under the Home Front Command directives. At Carrefour, significant purchase increases were reported: batteries up 1000%, water 500%, dry food 400%, baby products 350%, toilet paper 300%, and dairy products 200%.
• Retail chains will operate in emergency mode, even under fire.

The Middle East skies showing the Iranian airspace empty and the Israeli airspace almost empty

Updated 15062025 1000 | Source: adsbexchange.com

Reactions

Israel

• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat. For decades, the tyrants of Tehran have brazenly, openly, called for Israel’s destruction. They backed up their genocidal rhetoric with a program to develop nuclear weapons.” He says Iran has enough enrich uranium for “nine atom bombs”. “In recent months, Iran has taken steps that it has never taken before, steps to weaponize this enriched uranium. If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time. This is a clear and present danger for Israel’s very survival.” He added, “we cannot leave the threats to the next generation, because if we fail to act now, there will be no next generation.”
• Minister of Defense Katz: “Whoever acts to destroy Israel will be eliminated. Iran will pay increasingly high prices as long as it sticks to its aggression.”
• IDF Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir: “These are days of decisiveness, we are facing a new chapter in the campaign to ensure our future.” The IDF embarked on a campaign to “attack Iran’s strategic threats toward Israel. We are in a historic and fateful campaign to prevent an existential threat.” He added, “it is time, we reached the point of no return. We can no longer wait.”

Iran

• Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei threatened Israel with retaliation: “The Zionist regime has committed a crime in our dear country today at dawn with its satanic, bloodstained hands. That regime should anticipate a severe punishment. By God’s grace, the powerful arm of the Islamic Republic’s Armed Forces won’t let them go unpunished. With this crime, the Zionist regime has prepared for itself a bitter, painful fate, which it will definitely see.”
• Iran’s foreign minister said the strikes were “tantamount to a declaration of war” in a letter to the UN.
• Iran demanded an urgent UN Security Council meeting following the strikes.

China

• Fu Cong, China’s UN Ambassador: “China opposes any infringement upon Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity, and opposes any escalation of tensions and expansion of conflicts. A sudden rise in regional tensions is not in the interests of any party.”

United States

• US President Donald Trump: “The Israeli attack on Iran was excellent”. “There’s more to come”. “We gave them a chance and they didn’t take it. They got hit hard, very hard. They got hit about as hard as you’re going to get hit”. Trump told Fox News that he was aware that Israel was going to conduct preemptive strikes on Iran before they happened. The President posted on Truth social that he is urging Iran to take a deal – “just do it”, while threatening Iran not to target the US, saying that “the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come – And they know how to use it.” He added, “hey are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse!” and acknowledged there are “more brutal” attacks planned ahead.
• The State Department has ordered the departure of non-essential staff and their families from Embassies and military bases in the Middle East.

Russia

• Putin: “a full-scale war” in the Middle East is possible following Israel’s airstrikes on Iran.
• President Vladimir Putin (after phone call with Trump): “Condemned Israel’s military actions against Iran and warned of the dangers of further escalation… both leaders agreed that the war in the Middle East should come to an end.
• Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov: “Russia is concerned about the developments and condemns this sharp escalation.”
• Kosachev, vice-speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament, made clear that Russia would stand by its ally, Iran.

UK

• Keir Starmer said: “The reports of these strikes are concerning and we urge all parties to step back and reduce tensions urgently. Escalation serves no one in the region. Stability in the Middle East must be the priority and we are engaging partners to de-escalate. Now is the time for restraint, calm and a return to diplomacy.”
• Prime Minister Keir Starmer: “We are deploying additional RAF fighter jets to the Middle East… we are facing intense and rapidly changing conditions… we reaffirm support for Israel’s right to self‑defence while calling for restraint and wider diplomatic efforts to reduce the risk of broader regional escalation.”

Arab world

• Israel reportedly passed a message with strong language to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, warning them against intervening. “Any intervention on your part, even the slightest, will entail a disproportionate Israeli retaliation. We will eliminate all of the critical infrastructure in your countries within hours—including ports, power stations, bases, and strategic routes.”
• Lebanon: Sources say that the government will not allow Hezbollah to intervene against Israel on behalf of Iran. Al Arabiya reported that the Lebanese government informed the terror group it will “not tolerate” a response against Israel. “The time when the organization bypassed the state in deciding to go to war is over,” they added. Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qasem says Hezbollah will “support any Iranian response against Israel,” and a Hezbollah source told Reuters that “Hezbollah will not initiate its own attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s strikes.”
• Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan all officially condemned Israel’s strike against Iran, but there is a reason to believe that privately, these countries approve of it. Saudi Arabia published a press release: “While the Kingdom condemns these heinous attacks, it affirms that the international community and the Security Council bear a great responsibility to immediately halt this aggression.” The UAE’s foreign minister said in a statement: “The Ministry reaffirmed the UAE’s belief that promoting dialogue, adhering to international law, and respecting the sovereignty of states are the best foundations for resolving current crises.”
• According to Al Arabiya, a senior Iraqi security official  stated that the Iraqi government has asked Iran not to target US interests on Iraqi soil.
• Reza Pahlavi, the Iranian crown prince: “Ali Khamenei, the foolish leader of the anti-Iranian regime of the Islamic Republic, has once again dragged our Iran into a war—a war that belongs neither to Iran nor to the Iranian nation, but to the Islamic Republic and Khamenei.

My message to the army, the police, and the security forces is clear: this regime and its corrupt, incompetent leaders do not value your lives or our Iran. Distance yourselves from them and join the people.

The Iranian nation’s struggle against the destructive Islamic Republic is to reclaim and rebuild Iran. The solution is to topple the Islamic Republic through street protests and nationwide strikes.”

הפוסט Security Snapshot | “Rising Lions” Israel-Iran War |Day 3 הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

In the early morning hours of June 13, 2025, Israel launched an all-out preemptive strike to remove the mounting existential threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile program. This carefully-planned strike is unprecedented in modern military history, combining the targeted killings of senior officials and scientists, including the top leadership of the Iranian armed forces and IRGC; direct strikes of the main nuclear sites; and the targeting of Iran’s air-defense systems and radar alert systems; among other means. Among those eliminated are IRGC Commander Hossein Salami; Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Mohammad Hossein Bagheri; the entirety of the IRGC Air Force high command, including the Air Force commander; and senior advisor to the Leader, Ali Shamkhani. Israeli officials told the press that the Natanz nuclear site was badly damaged.

This operation is still unfolding, with further developments expected in coming hours, days, and weeks.

Iran’s nuclear program has been identified by the United States as a threat to American interests, and both the current and previous administrations, across political lines, asserted that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. Israel views Iran as the primary existential threat targeting the Jewish State, vowing to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The Iranian regime’s commitment to wage terrorism against Israel, the United States, and the West, coupled with its record-high nuclear activity, has made it the most alarming flashpoint in today’s geopolitical sphere.

This report will lay out the main flashpoints of this operation, and will be continuously updated in accordance with developments on the ground.

War begins: June 13th 03:00AM (Israel Standard Time)

IAF planes in first few rounds: +200

Targets hit: +100

Ammunitions used: +300

Eliminated officials and scientists: Confirmed 10+ | Reported 9+

Background

Iran’s nuclear program has reached new and alarming records in the recent period.

• Non-compliance with its nuclear commitments: The IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency – has declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations on June 12, being a party to the NPT. In response, Iran declared the activation of a third enrichment site. Its foreign ministry said it has “no choice but to respond”.
• Refusal to cooperate with the IAEA inspectors: On June 9, the IAEA declared that Iran fails to cooperate with its inspectors, in a way that hampers effective inspections. “Unless and until Iran assists the agency in resolving the outstanding safeguards issues, the Agency will not be in a position to provide assurance that Iran’s nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful,” said IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi.
• Nuclear threshold state: The agency’s recent report from May 2025 painted an alarming picture of the advanced stage of Iran’s nuclear program: 233kg of 60% enriched uranium, which makes Iran capable of manufacturing a sufficient amount of weapons-grade uranium, enriched at 90%, within 2-3 days for its first nuclear device and 1 month for 9 nuclear devices. Iran has also depleted its stock of near 20% enriched uranium, which has a civilian use in research reactors but constitutes an important step toward high-level enrichment levels.
• Dangerously close to weaponization: Israel says Iran has accumulated a sufficient amount of material for 15 nuclear devices, and has made “unprecedented steps” as it relates to “weaponization”, which makes it “close to obtaining nuclear weapons”, per Prime Minister Netanyahu. An IDF spokesperson revealed that “Iranian nuclear scientists secretly conducted experiments to advance all components necessary to build a nuclear weapon.” He added that “this is conclusive proof that the Iranian regime is acting toward obtaining nuclear weapons in the coming period.”
• New underground nuclear facilities: The IAEA and the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) have revealed that Iran has developed secret underground nuclear facilities designed to withstand airstrikes and conceal advanced enrichment activities. Satellite imagery and intelligence assessments point to deep excavation sites near Natanz and Fordow, raising serious concerns about undisclosed centrifuge production and uranium enrichment far beyond civilian needs. These sites, mostly hidden from international oversight, suggest deliberate Iranian efforts to maintain a parallel, undeclared nuclear program in violation of its commitments.
• Aggressive rhetoric: Senior Iranian officials have recently issued a series of escalating threats. On November 29, 2024, Iran warned that an IAEA resolution would trigger “immediate technical measures in response.” In April 2025, Ali Shamkhani threatened with the “expulsion of IAEA inspectors and ceasing cooperation” and the “transferring [of] enriched material to safe and undisclosed locations.” In February, President Pezeshkian declared: “If you strike a hundred… we will build a thousand… You can hit the buildings… but not those who build it.” He added, “We will never accept the elimination of our nuclear research.” Foreign Minister Araghchi warned: “If their position is zero enrichment, we will no longer have any talks… we are not joking with anyone.”
• Rejecting peaceful proposals: Since April, US President Donald Trump led bilateral negotiations to attempt to find a peaceful diplomatic solution to address the Iranian nuclear program. A series of talks have been held in Oman and Rome, in which the US confirmed to have submitted several proposals for a deal. Iran’s senior officials flatly rejected any restrictions on uranium enrichment, while President Trump made it clear that the United States will not accept Iran obtaining nuclear weapons, and that there can be “no enrichment”. By June 3, a senior Iranian source confirmed Tehran was preparing to reject the American proposal.
• Iran has also ramped up its ballistic missile program, amounting to a real existential threat on Israel. According to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s statement and to the readout of the IDF Spokesperson’s update, Iran has accumulated thousands of ballistic missiles that can reach every point in Israel, each carrying up to 1 ton of explosives. It is intending to obtain 10,000 such missiles within 3 years and 20,000 within 6 years. “For a country of Israel’s size, such a threat is intolerable,” said Netanyahu.

This comes in the wider context of its multi-front, multidimensional attack by the Iranian regime on Israel as from October 7, 2023. Iran’s new position makes it more dangerous than ever before, with its nuclear program reaching unprecedented levels; while at the same time more vulnerable and exposed than ever before, with its frontal collapse in tatters.

• Israel’s continued effort to erode Iran’s proxy armies and partners around the region in retaliation for the attacks has resulted in the decimation – to varying degrees – of all of its frontal defense. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen—all suffered severe damage or outright collapsed.
• The war in Gaza is still unfolding, with the IDF continuing its pressure on Hamas to release the remaining 55 Israeli hostages and lay down its arms; Hezbollah’s status in Lebanon was gravely diminished, and future political developments in the current, novel climate will determine the Israel-Lebanon relations in the coming period; the Assad regime in Syria collapsed, making way to Ahmed A-Sharaa’s jihadist leadership, with Israel taking over the Syrian Golan and destroying the vast majority of remaining weaponry in Syria; and Yemen’s Houthi militia was badly hit by Israeli and American strikes and continues to pose a serious though remote threat.
• Israel admitted to striking Iran for the first time in history in October 2024, and reportedly successfully eroded key elements of its air defenses.
• The Iranian regime attacked Israel directly twice, for the first time in history, in April and later in October 2024, launching over 500 projectiles at Israel—ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones.

Key modes of engagement

Israel has admitted acting in the following combined vectors, that form a multiprong effort to target Iran’s soft belly:

• Neutralizing air defenses and radars across all of western Iran, including dozens of radars and ground-to-air missile launchers.
• Targeted killing of senior political and military officials, disrupting the chain of command and taking down key operational figures. An Israeli security source reports that significant intelligence was gathered and surveillance was conducted to expose and target senior figures in Iran’s defense establishment and nuclear program, who were later eliminated. This was part of a broader covert campaign aimed at degrading Iran’s strategic missile infrastructure.
• Targeted killing of senior nuclear scientists, disrupting the accumulated know-how ecosystem and denying Iran quick recovery of its nuclear leadership.
• Airstrikes of key nuclear sites, targeting directly the sites where uranium enrichment and other key components of the nuclear program are undertaken.
• Airstrikes of key ballistic missile sites, targeting directly the sites where missiles are manufactured and stored.
• On-the-ground activity by Mossad operatives: According to Israeli media reports, the Mossad conducted the following activities in Iran:
• Strategic Missile Strikes: Mossad operatives deployed precision-guided weapon systems in central Iran, positioned near Iranian surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries. These systems were activated in coordination with Israeli Air Force strikes and accurately hit their targets simultaneously.
• Air Defense Suppression: In a separate covert operation, Mossad agents embedded advanced strike systems within civilian vehicles. Upon the launch of the surprise Israeli offensive, these systems were triggered, successfully neutralizing key Iranian air defense installations.
• Drone Offensive on Missile Launchers: Mossad established an internal base of explosive-laden drones, smuggled deep into Iran long before the attack. During the Israeli strike, the drones were launched against surface-to-surface missile launchers at the Esfajabad base near Tehran, eliminating threats to both strategic and civilian targets in Israel.

Five Air-Strike Waves Carried Out in Iran So Far

1. Opening salvo – senior figures of the Iranian regime
2. Senior nuclear scientists
3. Strike on Natanz nuclear facility & SAM batteries in Tehran
4. Wave in western Iran targeting surface-to-air and ballistic missiles
5. Additional wave in western Iran against the same missile assets

The skies over Iran are completely open to the Israeli Air Force—this is called absolute air superiority, and it is unlikely to change in the coming weeks.

Targeted sites

The IDF released a map showing the main attacked targets:

Military commanders | Nuclear sites | Air-defense systems

Ground-to-ground missiles | Nuclear scientists

The IDF also published an illustration of the attacked air defense systems:

According to Iranian media, various media outlets, and viral videos on social media, it seems that the following sites have been targeted so far:

• The Natanz nuclear site: Iranian state television reported that the Natanz enrichment facility was “hit several times,” showing footage of heavy smoke billowing from the site.  Islamic Republic of Iran News Network (IRINN), broadcast footage on June 13, 2025, described as smoke from explosions in Natanz after Israeli strikes.
• Tabriz Military Airbase: Network News of the Islamic Republic’s Voice and Vision confirmed Israeli attacks on targets in Tabriz. Videos received by Iran International (@IranIntl) showed the intensity of explosions in Tabriz, with some Iranian media reporting the Fakouri Airbase as the target.
• A missile production facility in Shiraz was targeted, believed to produce fuel and components for Shahab-1/Scud-B missiles and conduct research and development. Network News of the Islamic Republic’s Voice and Vision confirmed Israeli attacks on targets in Shiraz. The sourcing for Shiraz is less detailed compared to Natanz or Tabriz, with Iranian state TV providing the primary confirmation of attacks in the city.
• The Bakhtaran Missile Base in Kermanshah, a potential launching point for ballistic missiles-Iranian media reported strikes in Kermanshah, as cited by multiple outlets.
• Tehran: Multiple military sites in Tehran were targeted, with residential areas also hit. Damaged structures, including buildings and vehicles, were reported. Key figures, including IRGC chief Hossein Salami and other commanders, were killed. State TV reported residential areas in Tehran were hit, with blasts heard northeast of the capital. Iranian state TV reported the targeting of the IRGC’s Headquarters.
• The Fordow nuclear site was not reported to be hit at this time.
• There were reports of serious disruptions in internet, WhatsApp, and electricity across Iran-Viral videos and posts on social media mentioned disruptions in internet, WhatsApp, and electricity.

Building complexes in Tehran where targeted killings of senior Iranian officials took place | Compliation: Iran News t.me/@hadshotiran

The Natanz Nuclear site | Credit: Open Source Centre, © Airbus Defence and Space

The Shiraz Military Airbase

The Kermanshah Missile Facilities

Source: Iran News t.me/@hadshotiran

Eliminated targets

• Ali Shamkhani, Head of Iran’s nuclear program and senior advisor to the Supreme Leader. Reported by Iran International

Military Leadership hit

• Commander of Khatam al-Anbiya (Emergency Command Center) – Khatam-e-Olam – Ali Rashid. Confirmed Commander of the Iranian regime’s emergency security system. Responsible in routine times for readiness and force-building for war for the Iranian regime. Actively advanced the plan for the destruction of the State of Israel. IRIB and Tasnim News Agency: Confirmed Rashid’s death
• Commander of the Revolutionary Guards – Hossein Salami: Confirmed Responsible for operating Iran’s military power in the Middle East. Took part in suppressing opponents of the Iranian regime. Commanded the ground, air, and naval forces, the “Quds Force” deployed across the Middle East, and internal forces in Iran (“Basij”). Iranian State TV and IRGC related media confirmed his death, he is the most senior Iranian official to have been eliminated, even more senior than Solemini, the former Quds Force Commander, who was eliminated in 2020.
• Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces – Mohammad Hossein Bagheri: Confirmed The highest-ranking military commander in Iran. Holds broad decision-making authority within Iran’s security apparatus. Responsible for coordination among the various Iranian security bodies. Fars News Agency, Mehr News Agency and IRIB
• Commander of the IRGC Air Force – Amir Ali Hajizadeh: Confirmed The central figure in Iran responsible for direct attacks against the State of Israel. Commanded Iran’s missile attacks on Israel in 2024. A highly regarded commander within Iran’s security leadership. Led the attack on Saudi oil facilities in September 2019
• Entire Air force command eliminated together with Commander Hajizadeh, in an underground headquarters to prepare to strike Israel Confirmed
• Taher Pour – Commander of the IRGC Air Force’s Drone Command Confirmed
• Daoud Shikhian – Commander of the IRGC Air Force’s Air Defense Headquarters Confirmed
• Amir Mousavi – Commander of the Iranian Army Reported
• Amir Shahram Irani – Commander of the Iranian Navy Reported
• Ali Reza Pourdastan – Former Commander of the Army Ground Forces Reported
• Kioumars Heydari – Commander of the Army Ground Forces Reported
• Nasirzadeh – Commander of the Air Force Reported

Credit: IDF Spokesperson

Eliminated IRGC Subordinate Commanders

• Mohammad Pakpour – Commander of the IRGC Ground Forces Reported
• Ali Reza Tangsiri – Commander of the IRGC Navy Reported
• Amir Ali Hajizadeh – Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force Confirmed
• Dawood Shekhiyan – Commander of the IRGC Air Defense Confirmed
• Esmail Qaani – Commander of the IRGC Quds Force Reported
• Ali Reza Soleimani – Commander of the Basij Force Reported

Nuclear scientist

• Dr. Fereydoon Abbasi‑Davani: Confirmed Former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (2011–2013). Senior nuclear scientist and former member of Parliament He was almost eliminated in 2010 by Israel. Reuters cites Iranian state TV which confirmed his death. Tasnim News Agency (IRGC-affiliated) confirmed Abbasi’s death, describing him as a nuclear scientist and former head of the Atomic Energy Organization.
• Dr. Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi: Confirmed Prominent nuclear scientist and head of Islamic Azad University in Tehran. IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) and Tasnim confirmed Tehranchi’s death in Israeli airstrikes.
• Tasnim reported the killing of at least six scientists.

Targeted Air Defense Systems

According to the IDF, the following air defense systems were destroyed by the IAF and Mossad operatives:

• SA-69 (S-300 Copy): Estimated interception range: 300 km
• SA-68: Estimated interception range: 85 km
• SA-71: Estimated interception range: 24 km
• SA-63: Estimated interception range: 105 km

Israeli media outlets reported on the Mossad activity as follows:

• Mossad advanced preparation: Over recent months, Mossad infiltrated Iran, covertly built forward bases, and stockpiled precision missiles and loitering drones close to Iranian SAM sites.
• Inside-Iran launch: When Israel’s air force opened its broader strike last night, Mossad’s pre-positioned weapons were launched from within Iran, providing an internal “first strike” on Iranian air defences.
• Multi-layered operation: At least three parallel Mossad units—commando teams, vehicle-borne strike kits, and remote-controlled launch sites—were synchronized to cripple Iran’s air-defence network and clear the way for Israeli aircraft.

Aerial Combat Projectiles: Missiles

The following Aerial Combat Missiles used by Iran’s Ballistic Missiles are effective for striking Israel:

• Shahab-3: Effective range ~1,300 km
• Ghadr: Effective range 1,600 km
• Emad: Effective range 1,600–2,500 km
  Khorramshahr 1–4: Effective range 2,000–3,000 km
• Fateh-1: Effective range 1,400 km
• Haj Qasem: Effective range 1,400 km
• Kheibar Shekan: Effective range 1,450 km
• Sejjil: Effective range up to 2,000 km

*** According to reports, Iran possesses ballistic capabilities that rely heavily on North Korean and Chinese technologies. It is therefore plausible that advanced technologies have been transferred to Iran and integrated into its weapons arsenal — potentially including hypersonic missiles.

Aerial Combat Projectiles: Drones

• Shahed-129: Effective range 1,700 km
  Gaza: Effective range 2,000 km
• Mohajer: Effective range 2,000 km
• Arash-2: Effective range 2,000 km
• Shahed-136: Effective range 2,500 km
• Kaman-122: Effective range 3,000 km

Iranian retaliation and the Israeli home front

Retaliation

Israel anticipates a significant response by Iran, with Prime Minister Netanyahu advising Israelis to prepare for prolonged stays in safe shelters. The Iranians refer to their planned retaliation as “Operation Assurance of Truth 3.”

So far, Israel says that Iran launched some 100 drones toward Israel, that were reportedly mostly intercepted far from Israeli territory above the skies of Jordan and Saudi Arabia, among others. Jordan announced that its military downed several drones that penetrated its airspace.

Homefront situation in Israel

• Starting at 03:00, immediate changes to the Home Front Command’s defense guidelines took effect. According to the announcement, all regions of the country will shift from a “full activity” status to “essential activity only.” A siren went off to alert Israelis on the new emergency situation, with pop-up emergency messages sent to all mobile phones.
• Some assessments by Israeli officials indicate that the conflict with Iran is expected to last at least two weeks.
• Gatherings in public spaces and work in non-essential locations will be prohibited, in accordance with updated lists issued by the Ministry of Defense.
• Emergency Civilian Order for Continuity of Essential Services: Due to the current security situation and the declaration of a “special state” in the home front, and following consultation with Defense Minister Israel Katz, Labor Minister Yoav Ben-Tzur has signed an emergency order.
  • The order permits employees in essential service sectors to continue working within areas under the special home front status, in accordance with Home Front Command safety guidelines.
  • This includes sectors such as: water, electricity, fuel, gas, emergency medical care (hospitals, geriatric institutions, dialysis centers, nursing homes), community health services, food supply, welfare institutions, transportation, ports, local authorities, government ministries, and industries supporting the military.
  • In case of workforce shortages, the relevant government ministry may request that the Emergency Economy Administration consider issuing mandatory workforce recruitment orders

This order enables the government to mobilize employees as needed to ensure the functioning of critical infrastructure and services during a state of emergency.

• Ben Gurion International Airport has been evacuated and is expected to remain closed for at least three days. All flights to and from Israel have been canceled.
• The Ministry of Health has instructed all hospitals to shift to an exceptional emergency mode, which includes relocating to protected underground facilities and canceling all non-urgent activities.
• All hospitals have been instructed to suspend outpatient and elective services, including non-life-saving surgeries, routine treatments, and clinic visits. Health maintenance organizations (HMOs) and maternal-child health centers will also halt routine services, except for essential activities, primarily dialysis.
• Magen David Adom (MDA) urges the public to donate blood, with priority given to individuals with blood type O.
• All educational institutions have suspended classes. Approximately 2.4 million students, from kindergartens through high schools, have remained at home.
• The public is urged to follow Home Front Command instructions as published through official channels.
• Home Front Command instructions to residents include: after hearing an air raid siren, do not leave the protected shelter after ten minutes unless specifically instructed by the Home Front Command. It is prohibited to post on WhatsApp, Facebook, TikTok, or any other social media platform the locations of missile impacts or interceptions.
• Synagogues to Remain Closed on Shabbat Amid National Emergency.
• 300% Increase in Shoppers; Massive Queues at Retail Chains: There has been a sharp rise in demand for batteries, transistors, and generators, with many customers stocking up on water bottles, milk, and snacks. According to Home Front Command guidelines, Strauss, Tnuva, and Osem factories continue to operate normally, as do supermarket branches and pharmacy chains selling essential products, along with bakeries. Store opening hours remain unchanged, and branches are functioning as usual under the Home Front Command directives. At Carrefour, significant purchase increases were reported: batteries up 1000%, water 500%, dry food 400%, baby products 350%, toilet paper 300%, and dairy products 200%.
• Retail chains will operate in emergency mode, even under fire.

The Middle East skies showing the Iranian airspace empty and the Israeli airspace almost empty

Source: adsbexchange.com

Reactions

Israel

• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat. For decades, the tyrants of Tehran have brazently, openly, called for Israel’s destruction. They backed up their genodical rhetoric with a program to develop nuclear weapons.” He says Iran has enough enrich uranium for “nine atom bomb”. “In recent months, Iran has taken steps that it has never taken before, steps to weaponize this enriched uranium. If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time. This is a clear and present danger for Israel’s very survival.” He added, “we cannot leave the threats to the next generation, because if we fail to act now, there will be no next generation.”
• Minister of Defense Katz: “Whoever acts to destroy Israel will be eliminated. Iran will pay increasingly high prices as long as it sticks to its aggression.”
• IDF Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir: “These are days of decisiveness, we are facing a new chapter in the campaign to ensure our future.” The IDF embarked on a campaign to “attack Iran’s strategic threats toward Israel. We are in a historic and fateful campaign to prevent an existnetial threat.” He added, “it is time, we reached the point of no return. We can no longer wait.”

Iran

• Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei threatened Israel with retaliation: “The Zionist regime has committed a crime in our dear country today at dawn with its satanic, bloodstained hands. That regime should anticipate a severe punishment. By God’s grace, the powerful arm of the Islamic Republic’s Armed Forces won’t let them go unpunished. With this crime, the Zionist regime has prepared for itself a bitter, painful fate, which it will definitely see.”
• Iran’s foreign minister said the strikes were “tantamount to a declaration of war” in a letter to the UN.
• Iran demanded an urgent UN Security Council meeting following the strikes.

United States

• US President Donald Trump: “The Israeli attack on Iran was excellent”. “There’s more to come”. “We gave them a chance and they didn’t take it. They got hit hard, very hard. They got hit about as hard as you’re going to get hit”. Trump told Fox News that he was aware that Israel was going to conduct preemptive strikes on Iran before they happened. The President posted on Truth social that he is urging Iran to take a deal – “just do it”, while threatening Iran not to target the US, saying that “the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come – And they know how to use it.” He added, “hey are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse!” and acknowledged there are “more brutal” attacks planned ahead.

Russia

• Putin: “a full-scale war” in the Middle East is possible following Israel’s airstrikes on Iran.
• Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov: “Russia is concerned about the developments and condemns this sharp escalation.”
• Kosachev, vice-speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament, made clear that Russia would stand by its ally, Iran.

UK

• Keir Starmer said: “The reports of these strikes are concerning and we urge all parties to step back and reduce tensions urgently. Escalation serves no one in the region. Stability in the Middle East must be the priority and we are engaging partners to de-escalate. Now is the time for restraint, calm and a return to diplomacy.”

Arab world

• Israel reportedly passed a message with strong language to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, warning them against intervening. “Any intervention on your part, even the slightest, will entail a disproportionate Israeli retaliation. We will eliminate all of the critical infrastructure in your countries within hours—including ports, power stations, bases, and strategic routes.”
• Lebanon: Sources say that the government will not allow Hezbollah to intervene against Israel on behalf of Iran. Al Arabiya reported that the Lebanese government informed the terror group it will “not tolerate” a response against Israel. “The time when the organization bypassed the state in deciding to go to war is over,” they added. Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qasem says Hezbollah will “support any Iranian response against Israel,” and a Hezbollah source told Reuters that “Hezbollah will not initiate its own attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s strikes.”
• Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan all officially condemned Israel’s strike against Iran, but there is a reason to believe that privately, these countries approve of it. Saudi Arabia published a press release: “While the Kingdom condemns these heinous attacks, it affirms that the international community and the Security Council bear a great responsibility to immediately halt this aggression.” The UAE’s foreign minister said in a statement: “The Ministry reaffirmed the UAE’s belief that promoting dialogue, adhering to international law, and respecting the sovereignty of states are the best foundations for resolving current crises.”
• Reza Pahlavi, the Iranian crown prince: “Ali Khamenei, the foolish leader of the anti-Iranian regime of the Islamic Republic, has once again dragged our Iran into a war—a war that belongs neither to Iran nor to the Iranian nation, but to the Islamic Republic and Khamenei.

My message to the army, the police, and the security forces is clear: this regime and its corrupt, incompetent leaders do not value your lives or our Iran. Distance yourselves from them and join the people.

The Iranian nation’s struggle against the destructive Islamic Republic is to reclaim and rebuild Iran. The solution is to topple the Islamic Republic through street protests and nationwide strikes.”

הפוסט Security Snapshot | Operation “Rising Lions”: Removing an Existential Nuclear and Missile Iranian Threat הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

Overview

• Israel has already transferred at least 700 million shekels ($200 Million) for the operation of the Gaza Humanitarian Fund (GHF), hoping that its success will lead the UN and other humanitarian organizations to cooperate with it.
• A leaked conversation between a COGAT officer and a Gazan resident revealed that a Hamas mortar squad fired at the IDF near an aid distribution point to provoke return fire.
• Israel is cooperating with armed militias made up of Arab clans that oppose Hamas rule. Officially, Israel supports armed groups not identified with Hamas or Fatah. The assistance Israel is providing includes providing them with weapons.
• Israel has assured the White House that it will not attack Iran’s nuclear facilities unless US President Donald Trump signals that negotiations with Iran have failed, according to two Israeli officials cited by Axios.
• On June 5th, the IDF warned residents and then struck Hezbollah drone-production sites in Beirut’s Dahiya district, destroying at least 100 apartments and targeting facilities operated by Hezbollah’s Unit 127 which specializes in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operations for attacks, intelligence gathering and surveillance.

Gaza

Diplomatic

• A Hamas delegation led by Muhammad Darwish met in Doha, Qatar’s capital, with a delegation from Islamic Jihad led by Ziad al-Nakhala.

Hostage Deal

• Egypt and Qatar are attempting to broker a 42-day ceasefire that would lead to a permanent end to the war and a Gaza reconstruction plan. Hamas is demanding a 7-year truce and the establishment of an interim government including itself and other Palestinian factions, with no disarmament required. Israel and the US reject these terms.
• Mediators are optimistic that Hamas will soon submit an updated hostage deal proposal closer to the version presented by US special envoy Steve Witkoff. Egyptian and Qatari mediators, together with Witkoff’s representative in Doha, Palestinian-American businessman Bishara Bahbah, have been working with Hamas officials to soften or remove changes it made to the US proposal.
• The body of slain Thai hostage Nattapong Pinta was recovered in a joint Israel Defense Forces and Shin Bet operation in the southern Gaza.

Operational

• In recent weeks, the 98th and 36th Israeli Divisions (comprised of six brigade combat teams) have seized control of the Khan Yunis area from the south and north, with air force fire support and intelligence guidance. In the past few days, the 98th Division has been operating inside the city of Khan Yunis itself, entering from the north or northeast, while the 36th Division has been advancing from the area of the European Hospital and the southern neighborhoods.
• The 162nd Division has implemented a new method for opening routes due to the threat of explosive devices, but the area remains challenging, filled with mountains of rubble, tents with no civilians, trees and standing buildings, and undetected tunnel routes that provide sufficient cover for militants.
• Combat Team 7 has destroyed at least 400 separate terror infrastructures, both above and below ground. Khan Yunis has become the focal point for both regular divisions, which are concentrating their efforts in an area that is less densely urbanized compared to northern Gaza. This facilitates faster clearance and reduces risk to Israeli soldiers. Like Rafah, Khan Yunis is also expected to be “flattened” to enable protecting and securing Gazan refugees in what Netanyahu termed a “sterile zone free of Hamas.”
• An IDF convoy fell into an IED ambush on a booby-trapped road. A Hamas cell, pinpointed the convoy, emerged from a tunnel shaft under the rubble of a building and rigged it with explosives. The intention was to detonate all 20 bombs, but only one went off, hitting a Humvee. Three soldiers were killed and two were moderately wounded.
• Following intelligence extracted from a captured terrorist interrogated by the Shin Bet, Israeli forces were able to locate in the Khan Yunis area the burial site of the bodies of American Israelis, Judith Weinstein and Gadi Hagai. The bodies were recovered and transferred to Israel. The number of hostages in Gaza has now dropped to 55, of whom 20 are still alive.

Humanitarian Assistance

• It was revealed that Israel has already transferred at least 700 million shekels ($200 Million) for the operation of GHF, hoping that its success will lead the UN and other humanitarian organizations to cooperate with it, ultimately supplying the majority of food and funding.
• Hamas is actively trying to thwart the establishment of any new aid distribution mechanisms led by Israel. If control over aid distribution is taken from Hamas, it could lead to its internal collapse. Recently, with the media backing of Al Jazeera, Hamas has been spreading false and exaggerated reports in order to increase international pressure to halt the new mechanism. Hamas, via the Gaza Health Ministry, claimed that the IDF opened fire on Gazans at the GHF (Global Humanitarian Foundation) distribution center, killing 31. The IDF and GHF categorically denied the allegations, stating that no gunfire occurred. GHF released security camera footage from the time of the alleged attack, showing crowds waiting calmly for food distribution.
• The IDF has acknowledged firing warning shots at Palestinians approaching the aid distribution site before it was officially open or at those arriving from outside the designated safe route. The military stated that its fire hit an unspecified number of people, but did not confirm any fatalities. The shooting occurred about half a mile from the aid distribution site in Rafah’s Tel al-Sultan neighborhood, where hundreds of Palestinians had gathered—a location verified by CNN’s geolocation of videos.
• Many international media outlets ran the false story manufactured by Hamas in an effort to sway global opinion and prevent Israel from breaking Hamas’s control over food and, thus, the population.
• A leaked conversation between a COGAT officer and a Gazan resident revealed that a Hamas mortar squad fired at the IDF near an aid distribution point to provoke return fire, regardless of civilian presence. Contrary to Hamas claims of dozens killed or wounded, only a few casualties actually occurred.I In reality, Hamas recklessly, and intentionally draws fire near civilians with the goal of encouraging fear among Gazan civilians; fostering a lack of trust in the GHF humanitarian process, as well as causing civilian casualties.
• On May 21st, Netanyahu explained the construction of the new humanitarian aid mechanism, describing a “sterile zone, free of Hamas,” initially referring to Rafah, but now apparently also including Khan Yunis. The civilian population is to be relocated there to make room for IDF maneuvering in Gaza City, the central camps, and Deir al-Balah.

Israeli-Backed Armed Militia Fighting Hamas

• Netanyahu released an official statement acknowledging that, following the advice of Israeli security officials, Israel is cooperating with armed Arab militias made up of clans that oppose Hamas rule. Officially, Israel supports armed groups not identified with Hamas or Fatah. The assistance that Israel is providing includes providing weapons, likely protective vests, helmets, and eventually military uniforms.
• Currently, Yasser Abu-Shabab leads the only recognized militia, based in eastern Rafah, which remains the last undestroyed urban part of the city—spared in exchange for the clan’s loyalty. The Abu-Shabab clan is part of the Bedouin Tarabin tribe, whose members mainly live in Sinai and northern Sinai, and cooperate with the Egyptian army against the Salafi militia “Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis,” loyal to ISIS.
• Hamas denounced the Israeli announcement, condemning it as an attempt to create chaos and steal food for redistribution, accusing the “Israeli-backed gangs” of robbing food trucks at gunpoint in recent months and warning the population to avoid them, threatening to prosecute those involved.
• The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar revealed more details from Hamas sources in Gaza. The militia reportedly totals about 300 members, 50 recruited directly by Yasser. The rest include Fatah members, loyalists to the Palestinian Authority, criminals interested in Israeli salaries, and Salafists from other rejected terror factions.
• Abu-Shabab’s force is expected to serve as a policing force, maintaining civil order among relocated Gazans in Hamas-free areas, and may later form the nucleus of a loyalist force for “the day after” Hamas. Two days ago, Yasser called on Gazans to come to Rafah and urged international media coverage, aiming to provide Israel with international legitimacy for a future military occupation.
• Yasser Abu-Shabab released a video from eastern Rafah, openly challenging Hamas for the first time. He admitted to receiving support from the IDF and claimed to represent the Palestinians in cooperation with relevant parties (likely the Palestinian Authority). He called on the population to come to eastern Rafah, where tents are set up, and urged international media to cover the situation. According to him, they are the “people’s forces” against the “oppressive government” (Hamas) and black-market profiteers.
• Abu-Shabab is still hated by most locals as an Israeli collaborator (a “jasus”—a slang term for spy), but he represents a governance alternative to Hamas that is preferred by Israel and has been demanded by many of Israel’s allies.

Judea and Samaria

• The Trump administration is slated to reverse initial plans to eliminate the office of the US Security Coordinator (USSC) in Jerusalem, which helps bolster security coordination between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. The office will be moved under the auspices of the US Embassy in Jerusalem, rather than continuing to operate independently.

Domestic Israel

• Israel’s government faces a political crisis over mandatory ultra-Orthodox conscription, as ultra-Orthodox parties have threatened to topple the coalition. The IDF will begin drafting all ultra-Orthodox males, starting with 16.5-year-olds in July and summoning all eligible 18-year-olds—totaling 54,000. Enforcement measures against draft evaders are planned, but have not yet been implemented due to political sensitivity and low enlistment rates.
• The United Torah Judaism and Shas parties (which have 18 seats in the government) are threatening to withdraw over the issue. If they do, the government will lose its majority and must choose between continuing as a minority, forming a unity government, or calling for elections during wartime.

Lebanon

Diplomatic

• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi visited Beirut and met with his Lebanese counterpart, Youssef Rajji. The Lebanese Foreign Minister rejected the possibility of providing direct aid to Lebanese organizations (meaning Hezbollah), saying all aid must go through state institutions.

Operational

• On June 5th, the IDF warned residents of residential building that was used by Hezbollah to flee, before striking Hezbollah drone-production sites in Beirut’s Dahiya district, destroying at least 100 apartments and targeting facilities operated by the Iranian backed Unit 127, which specializes in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operations for attacks, intelligence gathering and surveillance.
• While the Lebanese were making some efforts to dismantle the sites, Israel proceeded with bunker-buster bombings when it was determined that they represented a clear threat to Israel.
• The attacks, coordinated with U.S. intelligence sharing, also served as a warning to Lebanon to more aggressively, disarm Hezbollah.
• Lebanon condemned the strikes but is unlikely to end cooperation with Israel due to international agreements.
• Later, the IDF targeted additional Unit 127 sites in Ain Qana, due to their launching 1,000 UAVs at Israel during the war.

Syria

Military Activity

• Since May 26th, the Syrian border guard has intercepted at least two arms shipments destined for Hezbollah in Lebanon, in the Homs province and the Lebanese Beqaa Valley. The seized materials included a Kornet anti-tank missile, light weapons, ammunition, machine guns, and other armaments.
• Since January, the Lebanese army has blocked 107 known smuggling routes between the Beqaa and Syria. Lebanese and Syrian security agencies are cooperating, sharing a common interest in weakening Hezbollah, with the Lebanese army increasing border patrols.
• Two rockets were fired from southern Syria targeting the Israeli towns of Hispin and Ramat Magshimim in the southern Golan Heights.Shortly after, Israeli artillery shelled the launch site. Two organizations claimed responsibility: “Islamic Resistance Front in Syria” and “Martyr Mohammad Deif Brigades”. The following night, the Israeli Air Force carried out at least 20 strikes on 7 different military targets in southern Syria to destroy weapons that could be used against Israel. Defense minister Katz threatened al-Julani that he would be held responsible for any future attacks on Israel.
• According to Arab sources, in light of developments in Syria, ISIS has decided to appoint a new governor for the city of Aleppo, Abu Dujana al-Jubouri, a former member of Jabhat al-Nusra. This signals steps by the terrorist organization to reshuffle the deck in Syria and attempt to regain control.
• Thomas Barrack, President Donald Trump’s envoy to Syria, stated that the U.S. has approved a plan proposed by Syria’s new leadership under al-Julani, allowing thousands of foreign fighters to join the Syrian army, “provided this is done transparently.” Three Syrian defense officials said the plan would involve about 3,500 foreign fighters, mostly Uyghurs from China and neighboring countries, who would join a new unit, the 84th Division, along with Syrian soldiers. Barrack added that it is preferable to keep these militants within a “state project rather than push them to the margins,” describing many as “very loyal” to the new Syrian administration. Until early May, the U.S. demanded that al-Julani’s regime remove foreign fighters from its security forces, but Washington’s approach to Syria has shifted significantly since Trump’s visit to the Middle East last month. Calls to freeze these appointments and expel foreign fighters remain a major point of contention with Washington and other Western states, up to the crucial meeting between Trump and al-Julani in Riyadh.

Diplomacy

• Syria will receive $175 million from the European Union for public health, local energy projects, agriculture, education, and more. With EU backing, Syria is expected to join Mediterranean forums (preparing for energy and trade activities in the Mediterranean) and to prepare for the repatriation of Syrian refugees from the EU.
• A series of meetings took place in Doha, Qatar’s capital, between Syrian ministers of foreign affairs, economy and industry, technology, finance, and tourism and their Qatari counterparts.
• Syrian President al-Julani is scheduled to visit the United States in September, which is expected to include a speech at the United Nations—the first speech by a Syrian president at the UN in 58 years.
• US Congressman Marlin Stutzman, after meeting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, stated that “he is open to peace with Israel.”
• US senate approves move to remove Syria from list of ‘rogue states’ as well as the list of state sponsors of terrorism. Under the designation, the US government is barred from cooperating with listed countries in areas such as civilian nuclear energy.

Yemen

• Houthis continued to launch rockets towards Israel. On June 4^th, the Israeli Air Force intercepted a Houthi UAV intended to strike Ben Gurion Airport.
• The Houthis called on airlines not to land in Israel, and several companies have indeed suspended flights until July or even September 2025.

Iran

Nuclear Talks

• In a speech on June 4th, Supreme Leader Khamenei rejected Trump’s proposal as reported by Axios. The Trump administration had offered to let Iran enrich uranium up to 3% for civilian needs, in the framework of a “regional consortium” including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, on the condition that Iran shut down its underground facilities.
• In recent months, Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium has grown drastically, surpassing 400 kg—even as talks continued with the Trump administration.
• Following Trump’s announcement, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns the U.S. administration not to allow Russian mediation in the nuclear deal with Iran, since Russia is not only supporting low-level enrichment but even enrichment up to 60%, and Iran already possesses enough material for 10 nuclear bombs. Russia and Iran are strategic partners, with Russia assisting Iran’s integration into BRICS.
• There will be an IAEA summit on June 9-10, when the US and E3 countries may activate the SnapBack sanctions mechanism. ISW reported that Iran is increasing air defense drills in preparation for a possible Israeli strike, and the Revolutionary Guard’s Navy is prepared to attack in the Persian and Omani gulfs to prevent sanctions.
• Israel has assured the White House that it will not attack Iran’s nuclear facilities unless US President Donald Trump signals that negotiations with Iran have failed, according to two Israeli officials cited by Axios.
• President Donald Trump asserted on Friday that Iran will not be allowed to enrich uranium, contradicting reports that the deal Washington has proposed would allow Tehran to do so at low levels for a temporary period.

Diplomatic

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Cairo. The two discussed strengthening relations between their countries and “regional issues of common interest.” The Iranians are seeking to strengthen ties with Sunni countries in order to isolate Israel diplomatically.
• Araqchi also met with Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stressing that “Tehran’s right to enrich uranium cannot be taken away. Enrichment is an Iranian right according to international treaties.”

Iraq

• Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani met in Baghdad with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. In a joint press conference, al-Sudani stated: “Iraq will work to support Lebanon’s cohesion, its state institutions, and its sovereignty over its territory. We support Lebanon’s internal political consensus as part of our commitment to a basic policy of non-interference in internal affairs.”

Global Jihad

• FBI and the Department of Homeland Security issued a statement of elevated threats to Jewish, Israeli communities across US and that there is a real possibility that groups with extremist ideology will act violently in light of the war in Gaza. Terrorist organizations may exploit the situation for attacks.
  This comes following the attack in which Molotov cocktails were thrown at marchers in Boulder, Colorado, and after the murder of two employees of the Israeli embassy in Washington.

International

• Chilean President Gabriel Boric, in a speech to the Chilean Congress expressed support for Spain’s decision to impose an arms embargo on Israel, called to reconsider Chile’s security relations with Jerusalem, accused Israel of committing genocide against the Palestinian people, and announced a ban on imports from Judea and Samaria.
• The Trump administration has imposed sanctions on four judges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) who have been involved in cases against Israel and the United States.
• The Israeli Navy is preparing to block a high-profile activist ship bound for Gaza, should it approach Israel’s territorial waters. London has so far refused Israeli requests to stop the boat, which is flying a UK flag, from reaching Israeli waters.
• President Donald Trump signed an executive order that will ban citizens of 12 countries, including Iran, from entering the United States. The order includes 12 countries: Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.
• Iran and Russia discuss developing Space Cooperation. Kazem Jalali, Iran’s ambassador to Russia, met with Dmitry Bakanov, head of the Russian Space Agency, Roscosmos, in a meeting where they discussed developing cooperation between the two countries’ space agencies.

Fallen Soldiers

הפוסט Israel Weekly War Summary Week #87 |June 1-June 7 ,2025 הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

Overview

• An American citizen from Chicago shot and killed two staffe members of the Israeli embassy in Washington, D.C. The attacker shouted “Free, free Palestine” and declared that he carried out the act for Palestine. The victims were Yaron Lichinsky and his soon-to-be fiancée Sara Milgram. They were killed outside the Jewish Museum after leaving an event organized by the American Jewish Committee.

• Details of a newly negotiated deal were released and it includes a 60-day ceasefire, the release of 10 live hostages and half of the deceased on the first day, delivery of medical information about the remaining hostages, the entry of full humanitarian aid, and discussions about ending the war consistent with Israel’s terms.

• The Prime Minister’s Office announced that humanitarian aid and food would be allowed into Gaza in minimal quantities to prevent a humanitarian crisis and halt the operation temporarily.

• Netanyahu said Israel is ready to end the war now if all hostages are released, Hamas leadership goes into exile, and Gaza is demilitarized. He also mentioned implementation of the “Trump plan” of emigration, warning that if these conditions are not met, Hamas as a murderous terrorist organization will regenerate.

• Israeli Ambassador to the U.S., Yechiel Leiter, believes Syria and Lebanon could join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel before Saudi Arabia does.

Gaza

Hostage Deal

On May 18, details of a newly negotiated deal were published. The deal includes a 60-day ceasefire, the release of 10 live hostages and half of the deceased on the first day, delivery of medical information about the remaining hostages, the entry of full humanitarian aid, and discussions about ending the war consistent with Israel’s terms.

Hamas demands that any such ceasefire agreement should be guaranteed by the United States and announced by President Trump, with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff signing the deal and shaking the hand of Khalil al-Hayya, which would effectively represent official normalization of Hamas.

Prime Minister Netanyahu held a press conference concerning the start of the new military campaign in Gaza. He explained that Hamas aims to obtain guarantees through a UN Security Council resolution that would restrict Israel’s ability to continue the war. Such a resolution would prevent the US from unilaterally reversing the decision, and require UN member states to enforce the ceasefire, ensuring the war stops while Hamas continues to exist as the armed ruler in Gaza. Netanyahu warned that Israel cannot accept any comprehensive agreement that forces an end to the war without destroying Hamas.

On May 20th, Netanyahu ordered part of the negotiating team to return from Doha due to Hamas’s refusal to compromise in talks. Qatar’s Prime Minister accused Israel of wanting only a partial deal, while Hamas demands a full agreement.

Operational

Gideon’s Chariots

At 16:20 on Sunday, May 18, the military operation “Gideon’s Chariots” officially commenced. The Chief of Staff held a situation assessment in the Gaza Strip, stating that the goal is to break Hamas’s fighting capability, decisively defeat it, and free all the hostages. Additionally, the operation aims to provide the political leadership with enough flexibility to reach a new deal.

IDF Spokesperson Brigadier General Efi Deferin declared that the conflict is transitioning from Operation “Oz u’Cherev” (Strength and Sword) to Operation “Merkavot Gideon (Gideon’s Chariots).” The Gaza Strip will be divided into different sections, and the population will be transferred from place to place, applying lessons learned from previous operations. The operation began with a preemptive strike and will be based on three main principles:

• Achieving operational control over the areas of activity and complete the clearing of tunnels above and below ground.

• Strategically, moving the population.

• Striking Hamas’s infrastructure to the point of regime collapse.

There are currently, five divisions fighting in the Gaza Strip: Gaza Division, 36th, 98th, 252nd, and 162nd Divisions. They are still active mostly in the periphery of the Strip. The Indonesian Hospital and the Nasser Hospital were identified as Hamas terror command centers and were consequently bombed, damaging a medical equipment warehouse.

• In recent weeks, Golani fighters have been clearing the Morag area, and in recent days, alongside Yahalom combat engineers, they have identified and destroyed the tunnel network.

• The IDF is preparing to re-divide northern Gaza by capturing the Nezarim Corridor, which would isolate Gaza City—the core area where approximately 200,000–300,000 civilians have not evacuated. The strategy is to implement a siege with a new division point (Point 4) south of the route along Salah al-Din Road to convince the population to evacuate.

• Saudi newspaper Al-Hadith reported that Mohammed Sinwar, along with 10 other Hamas commanders, was killed in a tunnel attack near the European Hospital in Khan Yunis. Alongside him, Rafah Battalion Commander Mohammed Shabana was also eliminated. Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated there are indications of his killing as well, but did not confirm his death. If both are confirmed dead, the only remaining survivor of the original Hamas leadership before the war began will be Ezz al-Din al-Haddad

• The Israeli military is prepared to capture additional territory in the Gaza Strip if Hamas does not agree to release the remaining hostages it holds captive, warned IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir in a video statement.

• In Khan Yunis in southern Gaza, daily protests are erupting against Hamas’s rule and demanding an end to the war. Hundreds of Gazans shout slogans against senior Hamas figures abroad, such as “Ya Zahari, Ya Hamdan, we want to live here”. Other chants include “Yalla Yalla Hamas Baraa Baraa” (Hamas out, out!)

Humanitarian Aid

• The Prime Minister’s Office announced that humanitarian aid and food would be allowed into Gaza in minimal quantities to prevent a humanitarian crisis and halt the operation temporarily. There do not appear to be any reliable precautions taken to prevent Hamas from looting the trucks bringing the aid, yet there seems to be pressure coming from the Trump administration to allow food in, likely the residual affect of  Trump’s recent visits to the Gulf and statements by both Trump and Witkoff, urging Israel to facilitate the distribution of aid. The Trump administration wants to be seen in the Arab world as preventing a hunger crisis in Gaza and has demanded that Israel permit the entry of food into Gaza.

• On May 19th, only five trucks were allowed into Gaza, but by Tuesday, 93 trucks entered. Masses of displaced persons are fleeing westward from Khan Yunis toward the El Mowasi area, accompanied by renewed protests against Hamas with chants of “Hamas out” and calls from Gaza residents to surrender and accept the deal.

• Starting in the coming week, through American private companies and with IDF security, the direct food distribution mechanism to Gaza’s population will begin operation. Recently, an American team underwent training for the mission, and the Gaza population has been informed about the distribution mechanism. Four distribution centers will be established—three in the Morag corridor area and one slightly south of the Nezarim Corridor. This arrangement will facilitate the evacuation of the population from northern Gaza, while the fighting  is expected to intensify.

Gaza Humanitarian Fund

• Israel may allow aid groups already operating in Gaza to continue handling non-food assistance, while leaving food distribution to a newly established Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), according to a letter obtained by The Associated Press. The letter, dated May 22 and authored by Jake Wood, head of the Israel-approved GHF, addressed to COGAT, states that Israel and GHF have agreed to let non-food humanitarian aid—such as medical supplies, hygiene items, and shelter materials—be distributed under the existing UN-led system. The letter also acknowledges that GHF lacks the technical capacity and field infrastructure to manage these distributions independently

• The Washington Post published a report based on interviews with several Israeli security officials and other sources, and examination of “hundreds of pages” of classified documents. It claims a deliberate effort to conceal Israel’s connection to the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). Despite this, Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter revealed in an interview that Israel was involved in establishing the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.

• A GHF spokesperson told The Post that the foundation had already raised $100 million from a secret donor, calling it a “significant achievement.” A former Israeli military official was quoted saying that some IDF officers “want the program to fail” and prefer the current system, in which aid is distributed by the UN and other international organizations.

• The core idea of the new program is that food will be delivered directly to Gazans, with each person receiving a family-sized food package, replacing the chaotic distribution where it is alleged much aid falls into Hamas’s hands. Hamas reportedly sells the aid at exorbitant prices to finance paying its operatives, ruling Gaza, and fighting the IDF. Israel’s aspiration is that by breaking the Gazan population’s dependence on Hamas, the system will encourage them to move south toward humanitarian zones where food is accessible.

• The report highlights that at the end of 2023, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT)—the IDF unit responsible for coordinating Gaza aid—began initiating the “humanitarian bubbles” plan promoted by former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. This plan aimed to concentrate Gazan civilians in safe areas outside active combat zones. A similar plan was also suggested by the IDSF.

• The United Arab Emirates admitted that 23 out of 24 aid trucks delivered in recent days to Gaza were looted, and the World Food Program confirmed 15 of its trucks were looted. Armed gangs seized trucks, and during a firefight with Hamas, several were killed. Israel eliminated six Hamas members responsible for executing 11 “aid thieves” — nine by shooting and two by hanging.

Diplomatic

• The governments of Britain, France, and Canada threatened sanctions and condemned Israel, with sharp statements from leaders including the British Prime Minister, British Foreign Secretary, and French Foreign Minister. They threatened to suspend trade agreements with Britain and delay agreements with the European Union. European officials issued harsh condemnations accusing Israel of genocide and demanded an immediate halt to the war and entry of humanitarian aid.

• Prime Minister Netanyahu responded that it is necessary to allow minimal aid to ease pressure, noting that even senior Republican senators supportive of Israel are pressuring for aid entry, which he argued must be prevented to continue the fighting.

Terrorist Attack Against Israeli Embassy Staffers

An American citizen from Chicago shot and killed two Israeli staffers at the Israeli embassy in Washington, D.C. The attacker shouted “Free, free Palestine” and said he carried out the act for Palestine. The victims were Yaron Lichinsky and his soon-to-be fiancée Sara Milgram. They were killed outside the Jewish Museum after leaving an event organized by the American Jewish Committee. Sara was an American citizen, while Yaron immigrated to Israel from Germany.

Jihadists criticized that instead of a Muslim carrying out the attack “in the name of jihad for Islam,” it was a non-Muslim who did the deed. They described this as a “shame” and a “weakness of the Muslim nation.” Beyond this perverted criticism, the jihadists implicitly called for Muslims to carry out attacks in the name of Islam, arguing that failure to perform jihad against “infidels” is weakness. They seek to motivate Muslims to conduct similar attacks to address this “weakness” and prove the “strength of the Islamic nation.” These come from popular Telegram channels from all over the middle east.

Channels supporting Hamas praised the attacker Elias Rodriguez, who waited 15 minutes after committing the shooting at the Jewish Museum and killing two Israeli embassy employees before police arrested him. Islamist channels across the web glorified Rodriguez and began urging Muslims to carry out similar attacks.

Domestic Israel

• The Security Cabinet approved the construction of a security barrier along the eastern border, stretching 425 km from southern Golan Heights to Eilat. This will be a multi-layered system including command centers, deployment of light forces, advanced sensors, and detection and warning capabilities. Additionally, a five-year plan was formulated to strengthen strategic control over the Jordan Valley, involving the establishment of pre-military academies, new settlements and agricultural farms.

• As of recent data, only 1,212 ultra-Orthodox men—five percent of the 24,000 who received initial draft notices since July 2024—have started the enlistment process, according to the head of the IDF Personnel Directorate’s Planning and Personnel Management Division.

• In defiance of the Attorney General’s order, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Thursday evening the appointment of IDF Maj. Gen. David Zini as the next Shin Bet chief. This announcement came a day after the High Court of Justice ruled Netanyahu’s firing of outgoing Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar was “improper” and “unlawful,” citing a conflict of interest. Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara informed Netanyahu that he is barred from appointing a new Shin Bet chief because of his conflict of interest related to the Qatar gate probe.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Press Conference

• Prime Minister Netanyahu highlighted achievements on various fronts of the war and dismissed the claim that there is a lack of full coordination with the Americans, in regards to the current US-Iranian nuclear negotiations, the American ceasefire with the Houthis, pressure on Israel to agree to  a ceasefire in Gaza, or lifting sanctions on al Julani in Syria. Netanyahu hinted that Israel reserves its right for a military option against Iran if a bad deal is reached.

• Netanyahu stressed that humanitarian aid must be allowed in to Gaza, in order to maintain American and Western support for the war. He outlined a three-stage aid plan:

(1) immediate entry of food to prevent a humanitarian crisis and enable continued fighting; (2) establishment of food distribution points in Gaza under a private American company’s supervision and IDF security (to begin soon); and (3) clearing of the Morag area from Hamas operatives, directing the population there.

• Netanyahu said Israel is ready to end the war now if all hostages are released, Hamas leadership goes into exile, and Gaza is demilitarized. He also mentioned implementation of the “Trump plan” of emigration, warning that if these conditions are not met, Hamas as a murderous terrorist organization will regenerate.

Judea and Samaria

• At the Arab League Summit, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas called on Hamas to lay down arms and relinquish control of Gaza to the PA, but Hamas rejected this call. It appears the summit supported the PA as the sole representative of the Palestinians, and that Gaza should be transferred under its control.

• A UN summit on the Palestinian state is expected between June 2-4. French President Macron announced his intent, alongside Saudi Arabia, to unilaterally recognize the establishment of a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River, though it is uncertain if he will follow through. Prime Minister Netanyahu sharply condemned Macron’s step.

• On May 21, a delegation of 25 diplomats from various Arab and European countries arrived in Jenin. Despite clear instructions about permitted areas, the delegation was led into a restricted military zone where two soldiers fired warning shots to disperse them. No injuries were reported. The Israel Defense Forces apologized for the event and announced an inquiry, but also noted the delegation had strayed from a pre-approved route.

• Ahead of Jerusalem Day, channels supporting Hamas are issuing toxic incitement urging Palestinians and Arab Israelis to confront and attack during the Flag March.

Lebanon

Diplomatic

• Deputy Special Envoy Witkoff’s deputy, Morgan Ortagus, is expected to visit Lebanon this week. Recently, at an economic forum in Qatar, she stated the Lebanese government must do more to disarm Hezbollah, not only south of the Litani River but throughout the country. It is possible she will discuss the possibility of Lebanese normalization with Israel during her visit.

• Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas visited Beirut and met with Maronite Christian, Lebanese MP, Gebran Bassil to promote the disarmament of Palestinian terrorist factions. Bassil apparently wants to first disarm groups in Palestinian refugee camps in Beirut, Sidon, Tyre, and Tripoli, before taking similar steps with Hezbollah. Both sides agreed that Palestinian camps in Lebanon cannot be safe havens for extremist groups, and the Palestinian side confirmed a commitment to not use Lebanese territory for military operations.

• French sources report that the Lebanese government signed an agreement with the Palestinian Authority to begin implementing a plan to collect weapons from Palestinian refugee camps and to take practical steps to improve their economic and social rights.

• Lebanese authorities claim they have decided to “limit weapons” in the country under growing U.S. pressure to disarm Hezbollah.

• The balance of power is changing in Lebanon with the weakening of Hezbollah. The increased American, French and Saudi influence may stabilize the fractured country and bolster moderate political forces. When Hezbollah is weakened enough and state institutions strengthened, Lebanon has the potential to be the next country to join the Abraham Accords.  In fact, Israeli Ambassador to the U.S., Yechiel Leiter, believes that Syria and Lebanon could join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel before Saudi Arabia does.

Operational

• Large caches

Syria

Military Activity

• According to “Middle East Eye”, Israel and Turkey are establishing the “Co-Tadmur” line. Israel is prepared to accept Turkish military presence on the ground in Syria, including infantry and military vehicles, but not air defense systems. This is apparently due to American support for Turkish deployment in Syria, especially to conduct active fighting against ISIS.

• Sources told Al-Akhbar that some Syrian opposition factions are holding secret meetings in Turkey, with the goal of requesting access to training and weapons support from armed groups that might confront the new Syrian government if it proceeds with normalization with Israel. There are rising concerns that the ISIS terrorist organization could resurge and launch attacks in the Daraa Governorate in southern Syria.

Diplomacy

• The Trump administration granted Syria broad sanctions exemptions for 180 days, a major step toward lifting decades of penalties on a country devastated by 13 years of civil war. According to Secretary Rubio’s press statement, these waivers will facilitate electricity, energy, water, sanitation, and more effective humanitarian aid across Syria. The U.S. Treasury Department issued a general license authorizing transactions with the interim Syrian government, the central bank, and state-owned enterprises.

Iran

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced the beginning of normalization processes with Bahrain and Egypt. Iran has historically courted Egypt, seen as the Arab world leader for decades, as a counterbalance to Saudi Arabia’s Sunni leadership. In the past two years, Iran has attempted to restore relations with Bahrain—which it views as an Iranian province—seeking to exploit unrest due to the Shia majority governed by a Sunni minority.

• The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns that Iran is attempting to disrupt the navigation systems of ships in the Persian and Oman Gulfs, forcing them into Iranian territorial waters to seize them. There are concerning signs that Iran is planning maritime attacks similar to those in 2019, aiming to pressure Trump to withdraw from his stance in the nuclear negotiations.

• According to a CNN report, the U.S. administration received new intelligence that Israel plans an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities during ongoing negotiations to prevent a bad deal. The Americans do not plan to lead or participate directly but may support the operation indirectly.

• On May 17, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei declared their goal remains the destruction of Israel and expelling the U.S. from the Middle East. On May 20, he referenced the current nuclear talks for the first time, stating uranium enrichment is a red line for Iran.

Nuclear Talks

• The Iranian Foreign Minister posted on X “Zero nuclear weapons = we DO have a deal. Zero enrichment = we do NOT have a deal. Time to decide…”

• Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expressed skepticism about the nuclear talks with the U.S., stating, “I don’t think nuclear talks will bring results. I don’t know.” The fifth round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran concluded recently in Rome with some but inconclusive progress, according to the Omani Foreign Minister.

Yemen

The Houthis declared a naval blockade on Haifa in response to the expansion of Operation “Gideon’s Chariots” and attacks on their ports. They are attempting a full naval blockade, not only on Eilat but also Haifa. Their mission has become easier following the withdrawal of the American aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean on May 17.

International

• Foreign Affairs Council discusses a review of the EU Association Agreement with Israel

On 20 May, during the Foreign Affairs Council configuration of the Council of Ministers, EU Foreign Affairs Ministers discussed amongst other priorities the humanitarian situation in Gaza. According to the press release given by High Representative Kaja Kallas after the meeting, a majority of Member States in the Council are strongly in favor of reviewing whether Israel has violated the human rights obligations under Article 2 of the EU Association Agreement with Israel.

Article 2 provides that the relations between the Parties and the provisions are based on “respect for human rights and democratic principles”. If the review finds that Israel has violated the article, the agreement could be suspended. The EU is Israel’s biggest trading partner, accounting for 32% of Israel’s total trade in goods with the world in 2024. According to some sources, there does not seem to be full support for suspending the Agreement within the Council.

• EU appoints new Special Representative for the Peace process in the Middle East

On 20 May, the Council appointed French diplomat Christophe Bigot as the new EU Special Representative for the Middle East Peace Process. His role is to support efforts toward a two-state solution, ensuring peaceful coexistence between Israel and a sovereign Palestinian state. Mr. Bigot will engage with key regional and international actors, including the UN and Arab partners, to advance peace efforts, particularly considering recent developments in Gaza and the broader region.

• Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani urged Israel to stop its military offensive in Gaza, emphasizing that Palestinian civilians must no longer pay the price of war.

• The Spanish parliament overwhelmingly voted in favor of a law banning arms sales to Israel.

• British Foreign Minister David Lammy is set to announce a pause in trade deal negotiations with Israel.

• The leaders of the UK, France, and Canada threatened “concrete actions” including targeted sanctions if Israel does not halt its military offensive and allow aid into Gaza.

Fallen Soldiers

• Staff sergeant Danilo Mocanu z”l

• Sergeant Yosef Yehuda Chirak z”l

הפוסט Israel Weekly War Summary Week #85 | May 18-May 24 ,2025 הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

Overview

• The Hamas delegation in Doha has announced its intention to resume negotiations on a hostage deal with no preconditions.

• On Sunday, May 18, Israel launched Operation “Gideon’s Chariots” amid stalled hostage negotiation talks based on the Witkoff outline, coinciding with President Trump’s visit to the Middle East.

• The IDF and Shin Bet destroyed extensive underground infrastructure using bunker-busting munitions aimed at eliminating Muhammad Sinwar, the Hamas Gaza leader.

• Hamas announced the release of Idan Alexander, a 21-year-old American hostage, as a gesture toward Trump.

• A terrorist shooting occurred in the Samaria, severely injuring a pregnant woman who later died; her newborn survived an emergency cesarean.

• The Israeli Air Force conducted Operation “Red Sunsets”. Utilizing 15 fighter jets and 30 munitions, Israel targeted docks at the port of As-Salif and two docks at Al-Hudaydah port.

Gaza

Hostage Deal

• Following meetings between Netanyahu, Witkoff, and US Ambassador Mike Huckabee, Netanyahu announced an Israeli delegation would negotiate in Doha, Qatar, but emphasized discussions would only occur “under fire,” indicating continued military action post-Trump’s Gulf visit.

• Israel’s Channel 13 news said Netanyahu subsequently told his coalition partners that Israel would negotiate only regarding the Witkoff framework, as opposed to a wider deal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed Israel’s negotiating team to remain in Qatar for the time being. According to reports, the deal on the table would see the release of 10 living captives for a ceasefire lasting one-and-a-half-to-two-months and 200-250 Palestinian convicted terrorists would be released from Israeli prison.

• Hamas-affiliated media channels celebrated the recent agreement between the United States and Hamas, describing it as “the first-ever agreement in history between America and Hamas.” They emphasized that “Netanyahu and his government did not bow down—rather, it was America itself that knelt to negotiate with Hamas.” While the return of hostage Idan Alexander has sparked relief, it also presents significant risks. From Hamas’s perspective, this agreement is viewed as a form of “surrender” by a superpower to a terrorist organization, potentially endangering the lives of remaining hostages by setting a precedent. Such a partial deal could also embolden Hamas in future negotiations, as they have successfully engaged directly with the U.S., bypassing Israeli involvement.

• According to recent reports, Palestinian-American political activist Bishara Bahbah was instrumental as a mediator between the Trump administration and Hamas, successfully facilitating the release of American-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander. Bahbah, previously the head of Arab Americans for Trump, was contacted by Hamas official Ghazai Hamad to connect with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff.

• Following increased IDF operations in Gaza, the Hamas delegation in Doha has signaled its willingness to resume hostage negotiations without preconditions—a notable shift from their earlier hardline stance. The softening of Hamas’ position which was defiantly intransigent is due to Israel’s mounting military pressure with the renewal of the military campaign and the possible elimination of hard-liner leader, Mohammad Sinwar who opposed any hostage deal.

• According to Israel’s Channel 13 News, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed Israel’s negotiating team to remain in Qatar but emphasized that negotiations will strictly adhere to the Witkoff framework, rather than a broader deal. Israeli media (Kan news) reported that the current deal on the table involves the release of 10 living hostages in exchange for a ceasefire lasting 1.5 to 2 months, alongside Israel releasing 200-250 convicted Palestinian terrorists from Israeli prisons.

Operational

• On Sunday, May 18, Israel launched Operation “Gideon’s Chariots” amid stalled hostage negotiation talks based on the Witkoff outline, coinciding with President Trump’s visit to the Middle East. The IDF began heavy air bombardments accompanied by a significant ground incursion, deploying heavy engineering equipment.

• On Wednesday afternoon, May 14, the IDF Spokesperson released intelligence-based graphical mappings revealing terror activities within civilian-populated areas in western Gaza City. Terror infrastructures were identified within three schools and the Islamic University, near Shifa Hospital in the Rimal neighborhood. Despite previous operations, the hospital continues to serve as a terror hub, with an extensive underground tunnel network remaining intact near the Gaza Port, possibly sheltering Hamas battalions like the Shati Battalion.

• The IDF has urged civilians to evacuate through air-dropped leaflets and direct communication, resulting in tens of thousands moving southward, including evacuation calls to the residents of the “Abasans”, east of Khan Yunis. The Gaza Brigade Commander Azz ad-Din al-Haddad oversees operations alongside remnants of the Northern Brigade. Securing western Gaza City is critical to decisively defeating Hamas and is believed to hold hostages, given previous hostage releases from this area.

• Southeast of Khan Yunis, near the European Hospital, the IDF and Shin Bet destroyed extensive underground infrastructure using bunker-busting munitions aimed at eliminating Muhammad Sinwar, the Hamas Gaza leader after the killing of his brother Yahya Sinwar. Although his death remains unconfirmed, such a strike would severely disrupt Hamas’s organizational structure. Azz ad-Din al-Haddad, The Gaza Brigade Commander, is expected to replace Sinwar, leaving him alongside Muhammad Shabaneh of the Rafah Brigade as Hamas’s last major leadership figures.

• Increased bombings followed Idan Alexander’s release, triggering mass evacuations from northern Gaza and Khan Yunis. The European Hospital ceased operations, and the IDF seeks to clear northern hospitals serving as Hamas and Islamic Jihad command centers. Additionally, the IDF eliminated Hamas’s former battalion commander turned finance official, responsible for transferring millions of dollars in salaries to terrorists in northern Gaza. From Thursday to Friday, Israeli forces targeted 150 terrorist sites including anti-tank positions, terror cells, and strategic buildings in northern Gaza, particularly around Beit Lahia and al-Tatra neighborhoods, preparing for simultaneous battles reminiscent of past operations in Jabalia and Khan Yunis.

Diplomatic

• Hamas announced the release of Idan Alexander, a 21-year-old American hostage, as a gesture toward Trump. The negotiation, led by Adam Boehler, occurred behind Israel’s back, signifying a strategic setback for Israel despite reducing the hostage count to 58. Hamas indicated a willingness for broader negotiations on ending the war, Israeli withdrawal, prisoner exchanges, and reconstruction plans.

• Witkoff traveled to Oman, meeting Iranian, Egyptian, and Qatari officials to push negotiations forward. Hamas described this release as a step towards resuming war-ending negotiations, opening border crossings, alleviating Gazan suffering, and participating in a post-war technocratic government. Celebratory rallies erupted in Gaza, marking Hamas’s perceived victory.

• A Wall Street Journal exclusive revealed Hamas’s motivation behind the October 7 attack, aiming to derail the Israel-Saudi normalization process. Yahya Sinwar emphasized at an October 2 meeting that a normalization deal posed a severe threat to Palestinian interests, calling for an “extraordinary act” to shift regional dynamics. Internal Hamas documents recommend intensifying conflict in Judea and Samaria and Jerusalem to complicate Saudi-Israeli normalization.

• According to NBC News (May 16), the Trump Administration allegedly discussed relocating one million Gazans to Libya in exchange for lifting sanctions and releasing billions in frozen Libyan assets, an assertion denied by the administration.

• Mohammad Darwish, head of Hamas’s political bureau, met in Doha with Iran’s Kamal Kharazi, former foreign minister and head of the Strategic Council for Foreign Relations. Both Hamas and Iran are taking advantage of the new American openness to direct talks, aiming to strengthen Iran’s proxy network. Tehran continues to rebuild the “Axis of Resistance” concurrently with ongoing nuclear negotiations. Hamas, too, is expected to capitalize on this unprecedented direct diplomatic channel with Washington.

Humanitarian Aid

• On May 14th, the Gaza Humanitarian Fund (GHF) announced it would commence operations in Gaza by the end of May, during which Israel would lift its over two-month blockade. The GHF stated it has secured Israeli approval to establish additional “Safe Distribution Sites” (SDSs) throughout Gaza, aiming to significantly expand humanitarian reach.

• GHF further noted it was in the final stages of obtaining sufficient food supplies from existing aid organizations in Gaza to distribute 300 million meals within the initial 90 days of operations. American security firms UG Solutions and Safe Reach Solutions have agreed to manage logistics and security at these SDSs, thereby reducing the direct involvement of the IDF in these humanitarian efforts.

President Trump Trip to the Middle East

• Trump’s visit concluded positively in Qatar, securing major investments including Qatar’s purchase of 160 Boeing aircraft and a total investment commitment of $1.2 trillion over ten years. Trump praised Qatar’s mediation efforts and encouraged resolution of the Gaza conflict.

• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman announced plans to invest $600 billion in the U.S. economy and the UAE pledged $1.4 trillion in investments. Discussions included significant investments in artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, and data centers.

• In an interview to Fox News, Trump has expressed his gratitude to the leaders of Qatar for being so “nice” by offering a new Air Force One jet to replace the over 40–year–old plane being used by the President.

• Yet, in the same interview Trump identified Iran as the main problem of the middle east.

Judea and Samaria

• A terrorist shooting occurred in the Samaria, severely injuring a pregnant woman, Tze’elah Gez, who later died; her newborn survived an emergency cesarean. Hamas openly praised the attack.

• Kfir Brigade soldiers in Tulkarm dismantled an explosives lab containing 200 explosive devices and 150 kg of raw materials.

Lebanon

• Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri condemned any move towards normalization with Israel, stating emphatically: “The enemy seeks, through escalation, to drag Lebanon towards normalization, which is unacceptable. Normalization with Israel is treason and will never happen.”

• According to a Wall Street Journal report, the Lebanese government dismissed dozens of employees from Beirut International Airport due to suspected Hezbollah activities. Since February, the airport has been closed to Iranian airlines, reflecting increased efforts by Lebanon—supported by the U.S.—to combat Iranian-linked smuggling operations.

Syria

Military Activity

• The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns al-Julani is facing a potential rebellion from his diverse forces, which includes extremist Sunni factions linked to ISIS and al-Qaeda. Some of the popular chants among the Salafists factions in HTS army include calls to march to Al Aqsa and destroy Israel. Even if al-Julani has actually moderated his positions and it is not merely a façade to convince the West to remove sanctions and reintegrate his country into world’s good graces, he remains beholden to the Salafists factions in his governing coalition which prevents him from reaching some détente with Israel and the West.

• His recent meeting with President Trump and his increasing alignment with Western interests, including potential cooperation with the U.S. against ISIS cells in Syria, could provoke internal backlash and rebellion among his extremist ranks.

Diplomacy

• Trump said in an interview to Fox News that he decided to remove the sanctions from Syria after MBS asked him to give the new Syrian government a chance. Trump seemed to be impressed by Al- Julani and decided to give him a chance.

• Trump promised Syrian President al- Julani sanctions relief, urging him to join the Abraham Accords. Al-Julani conditionally agreed, emphasizing adherence to the 1974 disengagement agreement, implicitly demanding full Israeli withdrawal, including Mount Hermon.

• Israeli and Syrian representatives met in Baku, mediated by Azerbaijan, to ease security tensions.

• Following a meeting between President Trump and Syrian leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, al-Julani extended an invitation to American companies to invest in Syria’s oil and gas sectors.

• Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani discussed details of lifting U.S. sanctions and improving bilateral ties with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Antalya, Turkey, in the presence of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

Yemen

• The ISW indicates the Houthis sought a ceasefire under US pressure, partially agreeing to halt maritime attacks but rejecting broader peace terms with Saudi Arabia. The US spent $1 billion on its campaign against the Houthis without decisive results, who have managed to improve their air defenses and targeted Israeli flights during Trump’s Riyadh visit.

• The IDF’s Arabic spokesperson issued warnings to anyone located at any of the three Houthi ports—Al-Hudaydah, Ras Isa, and As-Salif, designating these areas as dangerous due to imminent Israeli attacks.

• On Friday evening, the Israeli Air Force conducted Operation “Red Sunsets”. Utilizing 15 fighter jets and 30 munitions, Israel targeted docks at the port of As-Salif and two docks at Al-Hudaydah port.

• These targeted ports serve as critical hubs for Iranian arms smuggling, handling sophisticated weaponry, including complete cruise and ballistic missiles, components for large drones, long-range rockets, and solid rocket fuel, requiring large ships and port facilities with cranes. Israel’s targeted strikes are specifically designed to prevent these shipments, aiming to surgically degrade the Houthis’ missile-launch capabilities toward Israel.

• Defense Minister Israel Katz warned of possible assassination of Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, aiming to isolate Yemen internationally by shutting key transportation hubs.

Iran

• Iran conducted defensive military exercises, preparing against potential US-Israeli attacks, strengthening defenses particularly around the Persian Gulf and the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

• Senior Iranian and E-3 representatives met in Istanbul, attempting to avoid looming snapback sanctions, coinciding with anticipated US diplomatic engagements involving Putin and Zelensky.

• U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced new sanctions targeting the Iranian company Pouya Pars Technologies, along with Iranian citizens Mohammad Reza Sadeghi Saber, Ahmad Hajighat Talab, and Mohammad Reza Mahdipour.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi strongly reaffirmed Iran’s stance, stating explicitly: “We will not dismantle any of our nuclear facilities, and preserving nuclear enrichment is one of our fundamental principles.” Araghchi emphasized that maintaining Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities domestically remains a critical principle in the negotiations, adding that Iran’s military strength has deterred the United States from considering military force against it.

• Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani visited Baghdad and met with Iraqi parliamentarians from the Badr Organization. Iraq is hosting an Arab summit on May 17, attended by heads of most Arab states. Through this summit, Iran aims to advance a unified Arab position urging the United States to lift economic sanctions—particularly those affecting Iranian oil exports

International

• France has officially taken legal action against Iran at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot accused Tehran of unjustly detaining two French citizens on charges of espionage, prompting Paris to lodge a formal complaint against Iran at the ICJ.

• Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan expressed hope for the establishment of a Palestinian state. He noted numerous investment opportunities in Syria, particularly once U.S. sanctions are lifted. Saudi Arabia expects enhanced support for Syria as sanctions are gradually removed.

• An Arab summit in Baghdad has commenced, viewed by Iraq as a significant opportunity to reassert itself regionally. According to Arab sources, the summit’s agenda prioritizes regional dialogue concerning the Syrian situation and the Gaza conflict.

הפוסט Israel Weekly War Summary Week #84 | May 11-May 17 ,2025 הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

The Honorable Donald J. Trump

President of the United States of America

Mr. President,

On behalf of the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF) — representing 50,000 members, including thousands of senior commanders from all branches of Israel’s defense establishment — we wish to commend your unwavering leadership and steadfast commitment to peace and security for Israel and the broader Middle East. We wish you every success in your upcoming visit, and hope it marks a historic turning point toward the change the region has long yearned for. This region, long plagued by conflict, deserves a genuine new beginning.

The Middle East stands at a pivotal crossroads. In our professional judgment, Israel must be afforded full freedom of action to complete its mission in Gaza and fulfill its clearly stated war objectives: the destruction of the Hamas terrorist regime as a civil and military entity, the safe return of all hostages, and the establishment of a fundamentally new reality on the ground. By realizing your vision for a new, terror-free Gaza—beginning with allowing those who wish to leave and rebuilding it as a peaceful, prosperous enclave—we can secure a better future for the entire region.

This is not only Israel’s war — it is a campaign against the shared enemies of the United States, the West, and the free world.

There is no viable outcome to this war short of achieving the full achievement of these objectives. We have full confidence in the IDF and its commanders to see this mission through with the same professionalism, courage, and determination they have consistently demonstrated.

This war must end — but it must end with a conclusive victory over Iran, Hamas, and the radical axis. Removing this threat will ensure not only Israel’s security, but the security of the United States and the entire Western world.

Such a victory will also allow us to turn our focus to the most urgent threat to regional and global peace: Iran’s nuclear program. While the gallant Iranian people deserve freedom, the reality is that this regime and its radical hardliners cannot be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons. This could undercut the desired accomplishments of the US in the region, drive pragmatic Arab countries away from the West, and trigger an unprecedented wave of terrorism and mass migration that will endanger global security.

Denying Iran of its nuclear ambitions is not an act of war – but a necessary step to avoid one. Iran already launched a regional war on October 7, 2023, and it must be restrained decisively by removing the threat and ensuring that it has no future path to nuclear armament. This also includes the demolition of all nuclear sites and the establishment of real inspection mechanisms.

To empower Iran is to empower chaos. To constrain Iran is to unlock peace, prosperity, and regional integration — through initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) that would link Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, India, and Europe. As you have always stated, peace can only be achieved through strength.

We deeply appreciate your unequivocal support for Israel’s security, your decision to lift all restrictions on arms sales to Israel, your clear stance that Iran must never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons, and that another October 7 must never be allowed to occur.

The strategic alliance and true friendship between Israel and the United States is ironclad. We look forward to welcoming you in Israel, and thank you for your leadership. Together we can build a more secure Israel and a more prosperous region.

Respectfully,

IDSF – Israel’s Defense and Security Forum

Brg Gen (res) Amir Avivi Maj Gen (res) Gershon Hacohen

Lt Col (res) Yaron Buskila Vice Admiral (res) Eliezer (Eli) Marum

Maj Gen (ret) Shalom Katabi Maj Gen (ret) Aaron Axol

Maj Gen (res) Kamil Abu Rokon Brg Gen (res) Hasson Hasson

Maj Gen (res) Yiftach Ron Tal Brg Gen (res) Yossi Kupperwasser

E.M., former senior Mossad official J.G., former senior Mossad official

Moshe Fuzaylov, fmr senior ISA official Yossi Amrussi, former senior ISA official

Brg Gen (res) Harel Knafo Brg Gen (res) Tsvika Kraus

Rear Adm (ret) Alex Eyal Col (res) Yoram Lev Ran

Col (res) Ronen Itsik Col (res) Oren Zini

Former Ambassador Daniel Saban Former Ambassador Eli Yerushalmi

On behalf of the forum’s leadership and 50,000 members

הפוסט Letter to president Trump: Securing Peace and Victory in the Middle East הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

Overview

• On May 3rd, the Israeli military began issuing call-up notices to thousands of reservists in preparation for an expanded offensive in Gaza. The Israeli Security Cabinet approved plans for this expansion.

• The IDF announced plans to establish a humanitarian zone between the Morag Corridor and the Philadelphi Corridor once the area is cleared. A massive tent city will be erected there, and civilian companies will distribute food. Gazans from al-Mawasi and other areas of the strip will be allowed to enter following security checks at the Morag crossings, with the goal of reducing population density in other parts of Gaza and thereby disrupting Hamas’ maneuvering space.

• On the evening of Independence Day, April 30, Israel suffered from wild fires. There were five main fire zones, with several “secondary” fire points in between.

• On May 4, a missile fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels landed near Ben Gurion Airport, Israel’s main international airport, causing a plume of smoke and widespread panic among passengers inside the terminal.

• Palestinian Authority (PA) intelligence chief Majed Faraj is expected to meet with CIA counterparts in Washington, marking the first high-level security meeting between the parties since Donald Trump returned to the White House.

• A series of sectarian clashes erupted starting April 28, following the release of an fake audio recording of a Druze sheikh cursing Muhammad. Although the sheikh later denied the recording and claimed it was fake news, events spiraled out of control. It is unclear who released the clip, but it served as justification for numerous Sunni factions to begin a campaign of slaughter against the Syrian Druze.

Gaza

Operational

• On May 3rd, the Israeli military began issuing call-up notices to thousands of reservists in preparation for an expanded offensive in Gaza. The Israeli Security Cabinet approved plans for this expansion.

• Over the weekend, the Israeli Air Force struck more than 100 terror targets across the Gaza Strip. Targets included terrorist cells, underground infrastructure, and military buildings from which militants were operating.

• In the northern Gaza Strip, IDF Division 252 continued its operations to locate and destroy both above-ground and underground infrastructure. During the operation, the forces discovered a weapons stockpile belonging to Hamas and eliminated several militants identified in the area.

• In the southern Gaza Strip, IDF Division 36 engaged in combat in the Rafah area and along the Morag Corridor. The forces located and destroyed weapons used by Hamas, and in coordination with the Air Force, destroyed terrorist infrastructure from both the air and ground, killing additional militants.

• Simultaneously, IDF’s Gaza Division (143) continued operations in the south, locating weaponry, destroying dozens of terrorist infrastructure, while eliminating several militants.

• The “Iron Fist” combat team is leading the assault in the Tel al-Sultan camp. So far, its fighters have located and destroyed dozens of Hamas terrorist infrastructure and weapons caches. During the operation, they discovered a weapons warehouse 80 meters from a building used as a school and 100 meters from a building used as a hospital. Inside the warehouse were UNRWA sacks filled with large quantities of ammunition.

Plan for Humanitarian Distribution

One of the leading obstacles in defeating Hamas was its control of humanitarian aid which gave it a huge lever over the civilian population in Gaza. Israel, with international allies, plans to change the humanitarian distribution mechanism which would remove this influence from Hamas.

The IDF announced plans to establish a humanitarian zone between the Morag Corridor and the Philadelphi Corridor once the area is cleared. A massive tent city will be erected there, and civilian companies will distribute food. Gazans from al-Mawasi and other areas of the strip will be allowed to enter following security checks at the Morag crossings, with the goal of reducing population density in other parts of Gaza and thereby disrupting Hamas’ maneuvering space. There is a possibility of maneuvering operations beginning for the first time in al-Mawasi or even Deir al-Balah.

According to the plan, wholesale distribution and centralized warehousing will be eliminated. Instead, international organizations and private security contractors will be responsible for directly distributing aid packages—boxes of food—to individual Gazan families. Each family will appoint a designated representative who will travel to an IDF-controlled security zone in southern Gaza, where aid will be distributed after it undergoes multiple rounds of inspection. Each food box will be sufficient for several days. Once depleted, the family representative will be permitted to return and collect another parcel.

This system is intended to disrupt Hamas’s control over aid—particularly food and water, which the organization uses as leverage over the population. Although the IDF will not be directly involved in aid distribution, Israel believes this method will make it significantly harder for Hamas to divert aid to its fighters.

This change comes as part of Israel’s broader strategy to pressure Hamas, which has included cutting off aid deliveries since March 2.

The U.S., Israel, and representatives of a new international foundation are close to reaching an agreement on how to resume the delivery of humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza without Hamas control, according to two Israeli officials and one U.S. source.

The proposed arrangement involves donor countries funding the foundation’s operations, including purchasing aid supplies. A private American company would oversee logistics and security around humanitarian aid compounds. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would not be present in these compounds or take part in the aid delivery itself, but would secure the surrounding area. Israeli officials aim to have this mechanism in place before a further expansion of the IDF’s ground operations in Gaza, which are likely to proceed later this month if hostage and ceasefire talks remain stalled.

Diplomatic

• At the JNS Conference in Jerusalem, Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke about the two remaining theaters of war: Gaza and Iran. Regarding Gaza, he stated that the war will end only with the release of the hostages and the defeat of Hamas. He emphasized that Israel will maintain operational freedom in Gaza and that the Palestinian Authority will not govern the strip, saying, “We will not replace one terrorist entity with another.” Concerning Iran, he declared that Israel would destroy Iran’s nuclear reactors and would not accept any deal less strict than the Libyan model, which entails the full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program.

• Israel publicly called on Qatar, a key mediator between Israel and Hamas, to “stop playing both sides” and to decide whether it stands with civilization or with Hamas, according to a statement from the Prime Minister’s Office.

• A ship carrying humanitarian aid and activists en route to Gaza was bombed by drones while sailing in international waters off Malta overnight between Thursday and Friday, according to the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, a pro-Palestinian activist group. Saudi Al Arabiya, citing a Western security source, reported that the convoy was organized by Hamas, and that those onboard intended to engage with IDF forces upon nearing the Gaza coast.

Domestic Israel

Fires in the Jerusalem Mountains

On the evening of Independence Day, April 30, Israel experienced an exceptionally hot and dry day, with temperatures averaging 36°C (96.8°F) between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Haze, humidity, heatwave, and hot winds affected the region. The forested areas west of Jerusalem, known for their dense groves and trees, have historically been prone to fires—whether by natural causes or deliberate arson by Arabs.

There were five main fire zones, with several “secondary” fire points in between. At least 120 firefighting teams and 10 firefighting aircraft were deployed but were unsuccessful in stopping the spread due to the scale of the fires.

By midnight, over 19,600 dunams (approx. 4,800 acres) had been completely burned, and 22 people were lightly injured from smoke inhalation. At least 14 settlements and areas, including a neighborhood in northern Beit Shemesh, were issued evacuation orders.

Due to the need to concentrate firefighting resources on the blazes, there were insufficient crews available to cover emergency events during the Independence Day celebrations, leading to their cancellation.

Pro Hamas Incitement

Three arson suspects from East Jerusalem were arrested, and 18 social media posts inciting arson were uncovered, including quotes like: “Oh God, increase and bless the fire. May God avenge our people in Gaza.”

Hezbollah-affiliated channels mocked and celebrated the fires and Hamas-affiliated channels incited for more arson: “May the settlers’ homes turn to ash beneath the feet of the revolutionary fighters,” accompanied by the hashtag: #Burn_the_settlers’_homes

These pro-Hamas channels escalated their incitement, calling the fires “The Flame of Freedom”. Unlike earlier posts calling for shooting, stabbing, car-ramming attacks, or arson, this one included a direct call for the kidnapping of Israelis, taking advantage of the national emergency and the distraction of security and fire forces by the massive fires.

It is still unclear what caused these major fires—whether it was the extreme heat, arson, carelessness by hikers, or a combination. However, it is considered one of the most severe wildfire events in Israel’s history.

Yemen

• According to Arab media, there were 36 American airstrikes targeting Houthi sites in Yemen.

• On May 4, a missile fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels landed near Ben Gurion Airport, Israel’s main international airport, causing a plume of smoke and widespread panic among passengers inside the terminal.

• Shortly afterward, the Houthi military spokesperson declared: “We succeeded in striking Ben Gurion Airport with a hypersonic ballistic missile. American and Israeli defense systems failed. Air traffic was halted for one hour. We warn airline companies: Ben Gurion Airport is not safe.”

Judea and Samaria

• Palestinian Authority (PA) intelligence chief Majed Faraj is expected to meet with CIA counterparts in Washington, marking the first high-level security meeting between the parties since Donald Trump returned to the White House.

• Hussein al-Sheikh, recently appointed deputy to PA President Mahmoud Abbas, is preparing for his first diplomatic visit—a trip to Saudi Arabia next week. Al-Sheikh’s choice to prioritize Riyadh reflects a strategic understanding of the key influence Saudi Arabia holds in helping the PA reestablish its international relevance.

• A Trump administration official revealed that the U.S. State Department is planning to shut down the office of the U.S. Security Coordinator (USSC) in Jerusalem, which plays a key role in facilitating security cooperation between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. This move is part of a larger restructuring plan being led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Lebanon

Diplomatic

The Lebanese Supreme Defence Council issued a warning to Hamas not to conduct operations from Lebanese territory that could threaten Lebanon’s sovereignty or national security.

Mohammad al-Mustafa, Secretary-General of the Supreme Defence Council, said the council would recommend several decisions to the Lebanese cabinet, including a direct warning to Hamas to avoid using Lebanon as a staging ground for activities that might jeopardize national stability.

Syria

Military Activity

A series of sectarian clashes erupted starting April 28, following the release of an audio recording of a Druze sheikh cursing Muhammad. Although the sheikh later denied the recording and claimed it was fake news, events spiraled out of control. It is unclear who released the clip, but it served as justification for numerous Sunni factions to begin a campaign of slaughter.

These clashes intensified across Syria. Islamists took to the streets to “defend the prophet’s name,” with chants calling for jihad, alongside anti-Jewish incitement such as: “Khaybar, Khaybar ya Yahud” and displaying Shahada flags and ISIS flags. On April 29, jihadists in Hama also chanted: “Khaybar, Khaybar ya Yahud” and “Khaybar, Khaybar ya Druze,” calling Druze “pigs.”

This also presented an opportunity for al-Julani to target factions that refused his authority and Syrian unity. Specifically, the Druze sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri and his militia, the “Military Council of Suwayda” which were targeted in order to expand al-Julani’s control over Syria.

From April 28 to 30, heavy gunfire exchanges occurred in two southern Damascus neighborhoods—Jaramana and Sahnaya—both of which have mixed Druze-Christian populations. Fighting took place between armed Druze residents, reinforcements from other Druze areas, and Sunni militants, both those allegedly unaffiliated with the regime and those directly tied to it. By Thursday, May 1, at least 73 people were reported killed, with other estimates exceeding 100 deaths.

The Lebanese Al-Mayadeen (a Hezbollah network) channel reported that there were at least five drone strikes by Israeli UAVs targeting Sunni militants, killing at least one, with additional reports of Israeli aircraft circling but not attacking. Five wounded Syrian Druze were evacuated to Israel for medical treatment.

Following a gathering of Druze dignitaries in Suwayda, a decision was made by that faction to allow al-Julani’s security forces into the province, including its capital city, and to secure the Suwayda–Damascus Road. They are reportedly willing to recruit 2,000 Druze to his army. However, the senior Druze sheikh was absent, and the decision is not yet unanimously accepted, pending developments in the coming days. This marks the first time such a move has occurred since the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the rise to power of HTS.

Druze representatives in the Jaramana area, a suburb of Damascus, reached an agreement with Syrian regime officials to hand over heavy weapons in their possession and to reinforce regime security forces in the area.

Israel’s Response

In Israel, the Druze community mobilized its leadership to meet with Education Minister Yoav Kisch and other senior officials to press the government to assist and arm the Syrian Druze. Reports described a Druze protest in Israel outside the Prime Minister’s residence, demanding protection for Druze in Syria. Hundreds of Druze-Israelis demonstrated, blocking intersections and roads in protest over Israel’s inaction.

Netanyahu had previously stated that not only would harm to the Druze community in southern Syria not be tolerated, but also that al-Julani’s army must not move south to Damascus, and that the three provinces of Quneitra, Daraa, and Suwayda must be completely demilitarized. All of this is now being put to the test.

In response to escalating violence against the Druze minority in Syria, Israel conducted airstrikes using 12 fighter jets targeting multiple components of weapons infrastructure across Syria, including anti-aircraft guns and surface-to-air missile launchers on May 2nd near the official residence compound of Syrian leader Al-Julani in Damascus, according to a statement by the Israel Defense Forces.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with Sheikh Muafak Tarif, the spiritual leader of the Druze community in Israel. Tarif expressed gratitude for Netanyahu’s orders to protect Syrian Druze this week. According to the Prime Minister’s Office, Tarif said Israel’s actions “sent a deterrent message to the Syrian regime” and reaffirmed Israel’s commitment to the Druze community in Syria.

Diplomacy

• Syrian Interior Minister Anas Khatib met in Damascus with a joint German-Austrian delegation led by German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser and Austrian Interior Minister Gerhard Karner. They discussed enhancing security cooperation between the three nations.

Iran

• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visited neighboring Azerbaijan and met with President Ilham Aliyev. During the visit, Pezeshkian confirmed that the Nagorno-Karabakh region is fully part of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and emphasized Iran’s support for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. The two presidents signed seven memoranda of understanding between Iran and Azerbaijan, covering areas such as politics, transportation, culture, healthcare cooperation, media, and investment.

Nuclear Deal

Negotiations are underway regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Under the proposed terms, Iran would agree to:

• Cap uranium enrichment at 3.67%, in line with the JCPOA

• Limit the size of its enriched uranium stockpile

• Use fewer advanced centrifuges

• Dilute, export, or seal uranium enriched to 60%

• Accept unprecedented oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

In return, Iran would receive significant sanctions relief, according to multiple sources.

However, Prime Minister Netanyahu is demanding a deal with “zero enrichment”, similar to the Libya model, which would require the full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

While Iran insists its right to enrich uranium is non-negotiable, its officials say discussions are open regarding the amount of stockpiled material, the number of centrifuges, and possible export arrangements.

The United States is also pressing for the inclusion of Iran’s ballistic missile program in the talks, but Tehran continues to reject any discussion of that issue.

Ahead of the upcoming negotiation round, the U.S. imposed sanctions on entities accused of illicit trading of Iranian petroleum and petrochemicals.

Fallen Soldiers

• Captain Noam Ravid z”l

• Staff sergeant Yaly seror z”l

• Sergeant Niv Dayag z”l

הפוסט Israel Weekly War Summary Week #82 | April 27-May 3rd ,2025 הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

Overview

• U.S. and Iran resumed nuclear negotiations this week in Italy following initial talks in Oman, while Israeli plans for a military strike were reportedly blocked by Washington in an effort to give diplomacy one last chance.
  

• A U.S.-backed, two-stage hostage deal with Hamas is under discussion, but progress is stalled due to Hamas’ refusal to disarm and insistence on retaining control over Gaza post-war—terms Israel categorically rejects.
  

• The IDF has escalated its Gaza campaign, combining targeted assassinations, widespread airstrikes, and expanded ground maneuvers, with 30% of the Strip now designated as an Israeli security zone.
  

• Lebanon’s Prime Minister vowed to disarm Hezbollah, prompting fierce threats from the group, which warned of retaliation against any move to dismantle its military infrastructure.
  

• The United States has begun a phased withdrawal of forces from Syria, triggering strategic repositioning by Israel, Turkey, and Iranian proxy groups amid fears of renewed instability.
  

• In one of its most significant strikes, the U.S. bombed a key Houthi fuel terminal in Yemen, destroying infrastructure used to support missile attacks and resulting in dozens of casualties.
  

• Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas met with Syria’s new president, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, while Iranian proxies condemned normalization efforts and pledged continued resistance against Israel and Western influence.
  

• From Lebanon to Yemen, the region faces rising geopolitical tension as alliances shift, proxy forces mobilize, and Israel maintains its offensive against terrorist infrastructure across multiple fronts.

Gaza

The Hostage Deal – A Fragile Framework

In Cairo, negotiations resumed over a two-stage proposal aimed at securing the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. The plan, heavily influenced by U.S. and Egyptian mediation, outlines a structured timeline for phased implementation:

• Day 1: American-Israeli hostage Idan Alexander would be released as a goodwill gesture to the United States.
  

• Day 2: Five hostages to be freed in return for 66 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences and 611 detainees from Gaza.
  

• Day 7: An additional four hostages would be exchanged for 54 more life-term prisoners and 500 detainees.
  

• Day 10: A mutual exchange of information on all remaining hostages and prisoners.
  

• Day 20: Hamas would return 16 deceased hostages in exchange for 160 Palestinian bodies held by Israel.
  

The deal includes a 45-day ceasefire and provisions for humanitarian aid, shelter infrastructure, and a reconfiguration of IDF deployment in Gaza. On Day 3, talks would begin on Gaza’s future, focusing on demilitarization and a permanent ceasefire.

However, Hamas has firmly rejected any demand to disarm, offering instead a comprehensive release deal that includes full Israeli withdrawal and the start of Gaza’s reconstruction—conditions that Israel refuses to accept and cannot accept in order to achieve its war goals of ensuring Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel. Leaving Hamas in power will only ensure another war in the future. Hama’s refusal to disarm and abandon its wish to continue its authoritarian rule over Gaza is stalling the end to the war and making any hostage deal implausible.

Operational Developments – IDF Pressure Campaign

The IDF intensified its efforts on multiple fronts as part of Operation “Might and Sword”, targeting Hamas’ military and leadership infrastructure with significant impact:

Targeted Eliminations

Among the high-profile militants killed:

• Obaidallah Mousa: Deputy commander of Hamas’ sniper unit

• Hamza Asefa: Key participant in the October 7th massacre

• Mahmoud Abu Hasira: Aide to Hamas’ Gaza Brigade commander

• Yahya Abu Shaar: Responsible for weapons smuggling, Mohammed Al-Ajla: Commander of the Sajaiya Battalion

• Hassan Abu Hassira: Right-hand man to senior commander Izz ad-Din al-Haddad

Air Operations

Over 1,300 targets struck across Gaza in recent days. Use of 350+ aircraft and UAVs. 100+ precision eliminations, including 11 senior leaders and 5 battalion commanders. Destruction of tunnel networks, command centers, and weapons sites. Airstrikes foiled two Hamas squads preparing mortar and IED attacks

Ground Operations

Expansion of the Morg Axis to sever coordination between the Rafah and Khan Yunis brigades. 30% of Gaza is now designated as a security zone under IDF control

Public Dissent and Hamas’ Struggles

In Beit Lahia, a protest originally meant to support Hamas turned into a spontaneous anti-Hamas demonstration, with locals chanting “Hamas out!” and waving Egyptian flags. Hamas’ attempt to co-opt the event ended in confrontation.
Meanwhile, internal economic distress is evident: Hamas is reportedly unable to pay its fighters, adding to operational strain.

Strategic Analysis – A Turning Point

Israel is applying multi-dimensional pressure on Hamas—military, political, and psychological—to force a breakthrough on the hostage front while systematically dismantling the group’s military capabilities. The IDF Objectives include: Decapitate Hamas’ command structure. Destroy critical infrastructure both above and below ground. Expand territorial control to prevent Hamas reconstitution

Hamas’ position is deteriorating with the loss of seasoned commanders and weakened battlefield leadership. Civilian dissent is emerging as public trust erodes and economic and logistical challenges threaten internal cohesion

Geopolitical Dynamics

While the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar continue to push for a lasting ceasefire, Israel remains skeptical of Hamas’ long-term intentions. Defense Minister Yisrael Katz has emphasized that areas cleared by the IDF will not be relinquished but used to dismantle Hamas infrastructure permanently.

Hamas, for its part, clings to maximalist demands, rejecting demilitarization and accusing Netanyahu of exploiting negotiations for political cover.

The war in Gaza is entering a decisive phase. Unless Hamas agrees to substantive terms, including hostage releases and disarmament, Israel is poised to escalate its operations further—both in scope and intensity—aimed at dismantling Hamas as a governing and military entity.

U.S.–Iran Nuclear Talks

The United States and Iran are once again circling the edges of diplomacy, with renewed nuclear negotiations beginning in Oman and a second round already slated for Rome. It isn’t clear if there were direct negotiations or not.

Shortly after the first round, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei took the stage with defiant rhetoric. “Iran’s progress has angered our enemies,” he said, framing the talks as a battle between independence and foreign domination. While acknowledging economic woes, Khamenei insisted Iran’s rapid scientific and military advancements—even recognized by its enemies—must not be overlooked.

Meanwhile in Washington, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth struck a firm tone, warning that if diplomacy fails, the U.S. would “strike hard” to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. Donald Trump also echoed that line: “They’re close to the bomb. If they get it, we will use force—for the world, not just America.”

A report in The New York Times revealed that the Trump administration recently blocked a planned Israeli commando raid and airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, preferring to give diplomacy one more shot. Trump responded: “I didn’t stop it—I’m just not rushing in. Iran still has a chance to choose peace.”

Within Trump’s cabinet, there appears to be a divide over how best to approach Iran. Some advisers argue that Iran’s willingness to engage in talks necessitates a diplomatic response, warning that any U.S. or Israeli strike following Tehran’s outreach could damage America’s global standing. Others caution that the military option isn’t fully prepared and could ignite a broader regional conflict with unpredictable consequences. Still, there are voices within the administration advocating for a more immediate and forceful military approach.

In Israel, there is deep concern that the emerging framework could mirror the 2015 JCPOA agreement under President Obama—a deal many in Jerusalem believe merely delayed, rather than dismantled, Iran’s nuclear ambitions. For now, Israel is opting to avoid a direct clash with Trump and appears willing to let negotiations play out. Behind the scenes, however, preparations for a potential military strike on Iran continue.

At the heart of the deadlock lies a familiar issue: uranium stockpiles. Washington wants Tehran to transfer enriched uranium to a third country, likely Russia. Iran says no. Its reasoning? A fear of being burned again, as it was in 2018 when the U.S. exited the nuclear deal. “We won’t tie national interests to American promises,” said Iranian officials, insisting their right to enrich uranium is not up for negotiation.

As tensions rose, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi visited Iran, warning the world that Tehran is “not far from a bomb.” During his visit, he was given a tour of Iran’s nuclear advancements—from fusion research to quantum technology—meant to showcase progress, but also possibly to send a message.

In Moscow, Iran’s Foreign Minister AbbasAraghchi met with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, declaring a new high point in Iran–Russia relations and inviting Russian involvement in the talks. “We believe an agreement is possible,” he said.

Yet beneath the diplomatic rituals, the standoff remains unchanged: Iran demands recognition and autonomy; the U.S. demands restrictions and guarantees. The next meeting in Rome may be a crossroads—for diplomacy, or escalation.

Domestic Israel

The U.S. approved a $180 million deal to supply engines and components for Israel’s “Eitan” armored personnel carriers, expanding a previous agreement. The package includes logistical and technical support, with Rolls-Royce America as the lead contractor.

Diplomatic

In diplomatic developments, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar met with UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy in London to discuss regional issues, focusing on Iran’s nuclear program, the hostage negotiations in Gaza, and bilateral cooperation. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu told French President Emmanuel Macron he opposes a Palestinian state, calling it a “reward for terror” and warning it would become an Iranian stronghold near Israeli cities. He noted the Palestinian Authority has yet to condemn the October 7 attacks, and emphasized that most Israelis reject the idea of statehood.

Domestically, two teenagers—a Palestinian and an Israeli—were indicted for allegedly plotting an ISIS-inspired attack on a synagogue in Lod. The Israeli suspect reportedly contacted ISIS online, planned to steal a guard’s weapon, and open fire. The Palestinian accomplice was to distract the guard during the assault.

At a press conference in Jerusalem, U.S. Ambassador Mike Huckabee underscored the strength of U.S.-Israel ties. He affirmed that former President Trump is committed to the release of hostages and said Trump had “never been a better president for Israel.” Huckabee also stressed that Iran will never be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons, as it poses a threat to both Israel and the U.S.

Judea & Samaria

In southern Hebron, a 30-year-old Israeli was moderately injured in a vehicular ramming near Otniel. The attacker fled toward Dahariya, and a manhunt is underway.

Operational

In northern Samaria, Israeli forces eliminated two armed militants near Misliya, south of Jenin. One was Mohammed Zakarna, a Palestinian Islamic Jihad member who took part in the January 2025 Funduq attack, where three Israelis were killed. The final member of that cell was found hiding in a tunnel with two others and was killed after a firefight. In nearby Burqin, the IDF demolished the home of a terrorist involved in a June 2024 attack that killed one soldier and wounded 16 others.

In Jordan, authorities arrested 16 terrorists plotting to destabilize the kingdom under Iranian guidance, possessing rockets, explosives, and drones, including TNT.

Diplomatic

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron, discussing the prevention of Palestinian displacement. Macron reiterated France’s commitment to a ceasefire, hostage release, and humanitarian access. He also emphasized a post-war framework that includes disarming Hamas, reforming the Palestinian Authority, and advancing a two-state solution.

Lebanon

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun revealed that the army uncovered tunnels and weapons caches both north and south of the Litani River, declaring readiness to control the southern border—while blaming limited deployment on Israel’s continued occupation of five points. He stressed that disarming Hezbollah must be done through dialogue, not force. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and the Amal movement signaled support for placing all weapons under state control by 2025. Beirut’s governor ordered the removal of all political and sectarian posters, including Hezbollah imagery, aiming to depoliticize the capital.

Hezbollah, however, rejected any discussion of disarmament. Senior official Mahmoud Qamati cited Nasrallah’s warning: “The hand that reaches for our weapons will be cut off.” Wafiq Safa later reinforced that no force could disarm the group, asserting that national defense discussions would only begin after Israel withdraws and halts attacks. Hezbollah continues to exert influence over military appointments in Lebanon.

Operational

Meanwhile, the IDF conducted several targeted strikes in southern Lebanon, eliminating key Hezbollah figures, including leaders in the Radwan Force and Operations Division. European security services have dismantled a Hezbollah network smuggling drone components into Lebanon, with suspects arrested in Spain, Germany, France, and the UK. Lebanese sources also reported the relocation of families of 400 senior Hezbollah operatives to Latin America and Africa, hinting at growing concern within the group’s leadership.

Together, these developments signal increased international and domestic pressure on Hezbollah amid a shifting Lebanese political landscape.

Global Jihad

In a recent editorial, ISIS portrays President Trump’s proposed global tariff policies as a catalyst for the collapse of the Western economy. Labeling the tariffs as a “nuclear bomb,” the group argues that targeting allies like Europe alongside rivals like China will backfire, triggering retaliatory trade wars that fracture Western unity and economic stability.

ISIS predicts the resulting global recession will spark mass unemployment, poverty, and social disintegration across the West. They liken the expected collapse to the chaos seen during COVID-19, anticipating a surge in crime and social breakdown.

Beyond criticism, the editorial serves as jihadist propaganda. It urges Muslims to abandon Western financial systems based on interest and fiat currencies, advocating instead for an Islamic economy grounded in gold and charity. ISIS also calls for increased support of jihadist movements, presenting them as the divine instrument to destroy “infidel regimes.”

The group sees this unfolding crisis as both divine punishment and a strategic opening. Even if the U.S. collapses, they warn, Muslims must remain vigilant as a new hostile force may rise in its place. Ultimately, ISIS frames the global economic rifts as a victory for jihad and a validation of their worldview.

Yemen – Houthim

Houthi Attacks on Israel and Regional Threats

The Houthi rebel group in Yemen claimed responsibility for launching two missiles and a drone toward Israel. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree stated the targets included “vital sites,” specifically Ben Gurion Airport and an Israeli military base. None of the missiles hit their targets and were shot down by the Israeli Airforce

U.S. Strikes Houthi Fuel Terminal, Dozens Killed

Yemeni media reported at least 38 killed and over 100 wounded in U.S. airstrikes targeting the Ras Issa fuel terminal in Houthi-controlled Hudaydah Province.
Key points:

• 14 strikes were launched in two waves. The second wave reportedly hit after rescue forces arrived, resulting in at least five rescuers killed.
  

• Significant infrastructure damage occurred, including the destruction of multiple fuel tankers, allegedly with drivers still inside.

U.S. Sanctions on Yemeni Bank

In parallel to the airstrikes, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Yemen’s International Bank, citing its role in facilitating Houthi operations.

Sanctions include:

1. Seizure of all U.S.-based assets of the bank.
   
2. Ban on any U.S. persons or entities from doing business with the bank.
   
3. Secondary sanctions on non-U.S. parties interacting with the bank.
   
4. Efforts to disconnect the bank from the SWIFT global payment system.
   
5. Measures to block the bank from financing oil and fuel purchases.

Threats Against Former U.S. President Trump

Senior Houthi official Hazem Al-Asad issued a warning against former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is expected to visit the Middle East in the coming month.
In an interview with Al-Risalah (a Hamas-affiliated outlet), Al-Asad stated: “Trump’s visit to the region will not be safe as long as Gaza is unsafe.”

Around the Middle East & International

Iran

Iran escalated its rhetoric against Israel, with Navy Chief Shahram Irani vowing to “drown enemies in the sea,” and Basij Commander Soleimani declaring Jerusalem’s liberation a global cause. A threatening billboard in Tehran read “Tel Aviv under attack.” Quds Force head Qaani described the conflict as a “historic battle” against “global infidels”.

This week marked one year since Iran’s first direct attack on Israel (“True Promise 1”), involving over 300 missiles and drones in retaliation for the killing of Quds Force leader Reza Zahedi. Two further operations (“True Promise 2 & 3”) followed high-profile assassinations of Nasrallah and Haniyeh, though a third attack now appears unlikely amid U.S. talks. The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Iranian shipping.

Diplomatically, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi met with Russian President Putin, delivering a message from Khamenei to deepen strategic ties. Meanwhile, Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman met top Iranian officials. Both sides pledged to expand cooperation, with Khamenei highlighting shared interests and warning of “enemies” opposing their unity. The Iranian regime emphasized that stronger Iran–Saudi ties would benefit regional security and counter Israeli influence.

Turkey

President Erdoğan underscored the strategic significance of developments in the Middle East for Turkey’s national interests—particularly its security and economy. He issued a firm warning against any efforts to destabilize Syria, voicing clear support for the current Syrian government. Erdoğan also rejected any attempts to divide the country, stating that a return to the pre-Assad-collapse status quo is no longer viable. His message was unambiguous: those seeking to ignite conflict in Syria will face Turkish resistance.

During a White House briefing with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Trump stressed that any tensions between Israel and Turkey regarding Syria must be resolved through diplomacy. He expressed a willingness to mediate between the two allies, emphasizing that the United States cannot afford a conflict between key regional partners. Both Israel and Turkey, for now, appear to favor a negotiated settlement over Syria rather than the risk of accidental confrontation.

Behind closed doors, quiet talks are reportedly underway between Israeli and Turkish officials, with the aim of reaching an agreement acceptable to Jerusalem. Israel’s stance remains clear: Syria must not become another active front, and any military buildup within its borders will not be tolerated.

Syria

Israel has reportedly established a military outpost in Al-Hamidiyah, Quneitra, raising its paratroopers’ flag. Simultaneously, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam visited Damascus to discuss missing Lebanese detainees and explore renewed bilateral cooperation with Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Julani).

The U.S. has begun a phased withdrawal from Syria, reducing its forces from 2,000 to 1,400 and closing multiple bases. Despite Israeli objections, Washington insists on conditions for limited sanctions relief, including the removal of extremists from Syria’s government, expulsion of Palestinian militant factions, and support for counterterrorism efforts. Israel fears Syria is evolving into a Taliban-style regime, risking a resurgence of ISIS.

Turkey has voiced strong opposition to a federal Syria and called for the disarmament of Kurdish-led forces. Meanwhile, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas visited Damascus for the first time since 2007, signaling renewed diplomatic engagement.

Iran’s proxy, the Islamic Resistance Front in Syria, condemned the Syrian regime’s ties with Israel, Western normalization, and Turkish dominance. It accused the regime of abandoning national sovereignty and vowed continued resistance, while calling on the global Islamic community to confront Zionist expansion and alleged war crimes.

Amid U.S. withdrawal, regional actors are repositioning, raising the stakes for Syria’s internal stability and its role in the broader Middle East power balance.

The recent unofficial visit to Syria by U.S. Representatives Cory Mills and Marlin Stutzman, facilitated by the Syrian American Alliance for Peace and Prosperity, has sparked significant concern among Syria’s minority communities. The lawmakers’ engagement with President Ahmad al-Sharaa—formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, a figure with past affiliations to al-Qaeda—raises alarms, particularly given his leadership of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group with a contentious history regarding minority rights. While HTS has pledged to protect ethnic and religious minorities, including Syriacs, Kurds, and Alawites, rights organizations remain skeptical, citing the group’s prior governance in Idlib province, which was marked by authoritarian practices and the suppression of dissent. Furthermore, recent reports of mass killings of Alawite civilians by forces aligned with the new government underscore the precarious situation for these communities. The U.S. administration has indicated that any consideration of lifting sanctions will depend on the new Syrian government’s demonstrable commitment to safeguarding minority rights. In this context, the congressmen’s visit, absent official U.S. endorsement, has been perceived by some as premature and potentially undermining efforts to ensure accountability and inclusivity in Syria’s evolving political landscape.

UAE

Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s high-profile visit to the UAE signals growing normalization between Damascus and Gulf Arab states. The UAE declared its full support for Syrian stability and reconstruction.

The UAE sees strategic value in deepening its economic and political involvement in Syria, potentially outmaneuvering regional rivals such as Turkey and Qatar. It is also reacting to a perceived decline in Iranian influence in the region.

For Syria, the visit serves a dual purpose: to bolster legitimacy on the global stage and to advance reconstruction efforts. The hope is that this renewed engagement will lead to the lifting of sanctions and accelerated national development.

Qatar

Qatar is actively positioning itself as a regional mediator, engaging with Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, and Russia to shape the outcome in Gaza and broader Middle Eastern dynamics. Egypt and Qatar’s coordinated stance against Palestinian displacement signals a growing regional consensus on preventing long-term refugee crises. Meanwhile, Qatar’s renewed financial support for Lebanon and dialogue with Moscow indicate its strategic push to assert influence as a humanitarian and diplomatic power broker in the region.

הפוסט Israel Weekly War Summary Week #80 | April 12 – April 19 ,2025 הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

Overview

• Israel submitted a proposal for a 40-day ceasefire in exchange for 11 hostages and the remains of 16 others, which was rejected by Hamas, who demanded a 50-day ceasefire, the reopening of border crossings, the release of 250 security prisoners, including 150 serving life sentences in exchange for five Israeli hostages
• Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Aerospace Force, cautioned that U.S. forces in the region are “sitting in a glass house” and should not “throw stones”.
• Iran has begun withdrawing its military advisors stationed in Yemen, who were there to support the Houthi rebels. According to a report in the UK’s Telegraph, which cited a senior Iranian official, the decision was made to avoid a direct confrontation with the United States should an Iranian soldier be killed in Yemen.
• The IDF spokesperson stated that so far, 250 terrorists have been eliminated in operation “Oz VeHerev” (“Strength and Sword”), including 12 senior commanders.
• Hamas spokesperson Abu Obaida stated that half of the living hostages have been moved to newly designated evacuation zones and Hamas will not evacuate them further. This essentially means Hamas is deliberately endangering the hostages’ lives to impede the advancement of the IDF.
• Turkey has begun construction and assumed control of the T-4 Airbase (which was attacked by the IDF) in central Syria.

Gaza

Hostage Deal

• Israel has submitted a proposal to mediators for a 40-day ceasefire. On the first day, 11 living hostages would be released. On the fifth day, Hamas would provide information on the medical condition of the remaining hostages. On the tenth day, 16 dead hostages would be returned, reducing the number of hostages in Gaza to 32.
• Hamas continues to reject Israel’s demands. It has only expressed a willingness to release five hostages in exchange for a 50-day ceasefire, the reopening of border crossings, and the release of 250 security prisoners, including 150 serving life sentences.
• The family of kidnapped soldier Matan Angerst has released a 13-second video showing the moments of his abduction on October 7th. In the footage, Angerst is seen on top of the tank from which he was captured, visibly injured, with his shirt pulled up while Hamas terrorists hold him. The family also released another video from his time in captivity, where Angerst is interrogated in English by a Hamas operative. A previous video of Angrest released by Hamas showed him with asymmetrical eyes and mouth, a broken nose and a non-functional right hand. Former hostages have provided additional testimony, reporting that Angrest was being held in a dark cellar under harsh conditions, subjected to starvation, and forced to treat his own injuries without proper medical care and that he was left permanently disabled due to the torture he has been subjected to.
• Keith Siegel, a former hostage, provided a chilling account of his captivity in a “60 Minutes” interview where he described the inhumane conditions he experience in captivity which included deliberate starvation, physical abuse and being allowed to shower only once a month with a bucket of cold water
• A report emerged regarding a secret meeting held in Beirut with representatives from 13 Palestinian factions, including Hamas. In this meeting, it was unanimously agreed that disarmament of the “resistance” in Gaza is a red line and not up for discussion as long as the “Israeli occupation” continues. Hamas has reportedly conveyed this position formally to mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, as well as to American representatives, asserting that their weapons serve a defensive purpose for the Palestinian people and land, and therefore cannot be negotiated while Israel maintains a presence in the Strip.

Operational

The IDF continues to seize more territory as part of a broader strategy aimed at forcing Hamas to accept a hostage deal under Israeli terms. The purpose of territorial control is to push the population into more confined areas, while no food is entering through the border crossings.

• The IDF spokesperson stated that so far, 250 terrorists have been eliminated in operation “Oz VeHerev” (“Strength and Sword”), including 12 senior commanders.
• Hamas spokesperson Abu Obaida stated that half of the living hostages have been moved to newly designated evacuation zones and Hamas will not evacuate them further. This essentially means Hamas is deliberately endangering the hostages’ lives to impede the advancement of the IDF, highlighting Hamas’s strategy of using hostages as human shields to maintain its control—control which is primarily threatened by IDF military operations.
• The killing of Mohammad Hassan Mohammad Awad, commander of the terrorist faction “Mujahedeen Brigades”, has been confirmed. Awad was among the leaders of the October 7 massacre at Nir Oz, where he raided multiple times, and actively participated in the brutal murder of members of the Bibas family.
• The 36th Division has joined the fighting in the Rafah area alongside the Gaza Division. The objective is to sever the Rafah area from Khan Yunis using a new axis: the Morag Axis. Both the political and security leadership have stated that the goal of the operation is to pressure Hamas into releasing the hostages, amid signs of a breakdown of civil order in the Gaza Strip.
• The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit in Arabic issued evacuation orders for all residents of the expanded Rafah area and neighborhoods in southern Khan Yunis, instructing them to move northward to the rest of Khan Yunis and the Al-Mawasi area. This marks the largest evacuation in recent months, with 140,000 people displaced within a single day—most of them had returned to the area during the recent ceasefire.
• Due to the ongoing blockade, bakeries throughout the Gaza Strip have shut down because of shortages in flour and fuel. On March 27, the World Food Programme stated that its food supplies would run out within two weeks.
• A terrorist attempted to cross the border fence (into Israel) to carry out an attack and was neutralized.
• Two rockets were launched from northern Gaza toward Sderot and surrounding areas; both were intercepted.
• IDF struck an UNRWA clinic in Jabalia, where a Hamas battalion headquarters had been established.
• IDF launched new operations in the Shuja’iyya area in northern Gaza. The goal is to deepen Israeli control and expand the security perimeter in the region.
• The Palestinian Islamic Jihad released a video showing rocket launches, which it claims were directed at the Hatzor Airbase. Compared to previous operations, terror factions have released fewer statements and videos during the current campaign, likely indicating a diminished operational capacity.
• According to an Axios report, Israel aims to capture approximately 25% of the Gaza Strip and exert pressure on Hamas to agree to a hostage deal within two to three weeks. If that fails, the operation will expand to additional areas, eventually concentrating the population into a single zone, similar to the previous situation in Al-Mawasi.

Analysis

Israel’s expanded military campaign has helped expose Hamas’s loss of control over the civilian population and has begun to shatter the tyranny of fear that had controlled the Gazan population, as more and more Gazans are taking the risk of protesting against Hamas, despite the real risks, including the recent murder of a Gazan who protested against Hamas last week.  He was tortured, brutalized and his corpse was delivered to his family as a mafia style warning to deter others from challenging Hamas.

The border crossings have been closed since March 2, following the end of the previous hostage deal framework. Although Hamas managed to stockpile supplies for two months, recent bakery closures have caused the price of a sack of flour to increase approximately fivefold

In a flour distribution line in Deir al-Balah, a Hamas police officer shot and killed a member of a local clan. In response, members of the clan captured the officer and executed him—an unprecedented event during the war. The very coverage of this execution reflects a breakdown of the fear barrier, at least among stronger clans.

On April 2^nd, there were demonstrations against Hamas in Beit Lahia and Jabalia, with protestors demanding an end to the war. That same day in the Tuffah neighborhood, a mob looted an UNRWA food warehouse, stealing at least 20,000 sacks of flour. These events help explain the IDF’s recent destruction of 100 Hamas pickup trucks. These vehicles are more often used for policing than combat against the IDF, and their destruction weakens Hamas’s enforcement capabilities.

Hamas Abroad

The Shin Bet foiled a planned terrorist attack and arrested a Hamas cell consisting of six operatives in Nablus who were being directed from Turkey. They had already planted explosives on key roads and planned to carry out shootings.

Domestic Israel

• The IDF published its investigation into the massacre at the Nova music festival. According to the findings, a Nukhba force from the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza had planned to reach the town of Netivot. However, a navigation error by its commanders led the unit to encounter festival-goers who were fleeing the scene. Trapped between two directions, the attackers ambushed and killed civilians from both the north and south ends—some victims were murdered near the Yad Mordechai Junction in the north, while others were killed near Kibbutz Nir Yitzhak in the south.
• General Michael Erik Kurilla, Commander of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), arrived in Israel as the official guest of IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir and joined a joint panel discussion with senior IDF commanders.
• New developments in the ‘Qatar-Gate’ scandal- a report by journalist Avishai Grinzeigexposed additional details, revealing that Gilead Sher, who served as an advisor to former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, , facilitated a deal with Jay Footlik, a former Democratic official and U.S.-based Qatari lobbyist and Israeli businessman Gil Birger. Sher was also the one who pushed Attorney General Gali Baharav Miara to not allow for the dismissal of the Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar. In addition, the editor of the Jerusalem Post was interrogated about the scandal after it was alleged that he was a middleman between Footlik and Birger.

Judea and Samaria

• During Ramadan 2025 (March 1–29), offensive operations by the IDF, Border Police, and Shin Bet led to a sharp decline in terrorist attacks compared to Ramadan 2024 (from 27 attacks to just 3). In this period, 401 wanted individuals were arrested, 105 weapons were confiscated, and 13 terrorists were eliminated. In total, there were 1,508 offensive operations in the area, with the highest number (316) conducted in the Etzion Regional Brigade sector.
• During January and February of 2025, Israeli security forces uncovered a terror cell based in Nablus, operating under direction and funding from Hamas headquarters in Turkey. The cell was planning shooting attacks and bombings against Israeli forces and targets throughout Judea and Samaira. The six members of the cell were arrested with an M-16 rifle and around $60,000 in cash designated for funding these operations. During the investigation, a large explosive device hidden near the Jit Junction was discovered and destroyed.

Lebanon

Diplomatic

• Morgan Ortagus is expected to visit Lebanon to urge the government to set a deadline for Hezbollah’s disarmament in exchange for loan assistance and economic recovery reforms. Pressure is mounting within Lebanon against Hezbollah. For example, the mayor of Sidon has ordered the closure of Al-Qard al-Hassan Society’s offices in the city (effectively Hezbollah’s bank). Meanwhile, the IDF destroyed several Hezbollah-associated buildings in Naqoura, where the group had planned to open a clinic as part of its rehabilitation efforts.

Operational

• On April 1, an Israeli airstrike hit a nine-story building in the Dahiyeh district of Beirut, killing Hassan Ali Muhammad Badr and his son, along with two other Lebanese nationals. Badr was a senior official in Unit 3900 of the Quds Force and oversaw the “Palestinian file.” Together with Hamas, they were planning a massive attack on Israelis abroad during Passover. The operation had three strategic goals: to pressure Israel to withdraw from five southern outposts, to initiate a “revolution” within Hezbollah’s leadership by replacing moderates, and to shift the strategic balance against Israel.
• On the same day, Spanish police in Barcelona arrested three Hezbollah operatives attempting to procure drone components for manufacturing suicide UAVs. While a connection between the two incidents is possible, it has not yet been confirmed.

Syria

Military Activity

• The “Military Council of Sweida” has announced plans to establish 16 different units, including an artillery department and a counterterrorism battalion. The council rejects the rule of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani and seeks Druze autonomy, reportedly receiving assistance from Israel.
• The Israeli Air Force carried out a series of airstrikes in Syria. Military systems were destroyed at the T-4 Airbase, a research institute building in Damascus was hit, and aerial defense systems were struck. The primary target was the Homs airbase, where runways were destroyed. Dozens of Syrian casualties were reported.
• These strikes sent a message to Turkey not to embed itself in Syria like Iran did in order to avoid further escalation with Israel. Israel wanted to prevent Syria from becoming a Turkish Proxy which has the potential as being as dangerous as the Assad regime was, as an Iranian proxy.
• An armed group from the villages of Nawaa and Tasil in southern Daraa (near Koya) ambushed and attacked an IDF patrol from the 474th Brigade (Golan Formation). In the exchange of fire and artillery response, 10 gunmen were killed and about 20 wounded. No Israeli casualties were reported.

Diplomacy

• Impact SE, an organization that monitors educational content in Arab societies, has analyzed changes in the school textbooks under Syria’s new Islamist-led government. During the short time that the HTS regime has ruled in Syria, the overall curriculum has taken an even more hostile approach towards Israel than the previous Assad regime.  The curriculum  which had followed a secular national narrative that was prominent under the Assad regime. The concept of martyrdom shifted from a national to a religious context.  and included the glorifying of terrorists like Dalal al-Mughrabi who participated in a terror attack in Israel in 1978 which left 37 people dead.

Turkey

• On April 1, the Arabic newspaper Ain al-Sharq al-Awsat reported that Turkey began construction and assumed control of the T-4 Airbase (which had been attacked by the IDF) in central Syria. Turkey also plans to take over the base in Palmyra and is building an airbase near Aleppo (Mana base). The objective is to deploy UAVs and military equipment to combat the Islamic State and patrol the desert. Turkish Hisar-A and Hisar-O air defense batteries are being deployed to deter Israeli strikes.
• Turkey is moving toward a strategic agreement with Syria. This construction follows a meeting between Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, in which they agreed that Turkey would take responsibility for countering Iran and the Islamic State in Syria. However, it is evident that the air defense systems are also intended to deter Israel.
• After an exchange of harsh messages by the Israeli and Turkish foreign Ministries, Turkey’s Foreign Ministry issued the following statement: “Israel must stop undermining the efforts aimed at stabilizing Syria. It plays the role of a strategic destabilizing factor in the region, leading to chaos and fueling terrorism. Israel must end its expansionist policies and withdraw from the territories it occupies in order to establish regional security. Israel represents the greatest threat to the security of our region with its attacks on the territorial integrity and national integrity of other countries.”

Iran

• Iran has begun withdrawing its military advisors stationed in Yemen, who were there to support the Houthi rebels. According to a report in the UK’s Telegraph, which cited a senior Iranian official, the decision was made to avoid a direct confrontation with the United States should Iranian soldiers be killed in a US attack. The source further explained that Tehran is scaling back its strategy of supporting proxy forces in order to focus on direct threats from the U.S.
• President Trump issued a public warning, stating that if Iran did not agree to a new nuclear deal, it would face unprecedented bombing. This happens as negotiations progressed in Oman.
• Iran is making efforts to strengthen its air defense systems. In West Azerbaijan Province, Iran has recently deployed a Ghadir radar system with a detection radius of up to 1,100 kilometers. Two more similar systems are currently being deployed in the southern part of the country.
• Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Aerospace Force, cautioned that U.S. forces in the region are “sitting in a glass house” and should not “throw stones”, emphasizing their vulnerability to Iranian retaliation. Iranian officials reportedly stated that every American soldier in the region would become a target if the U.S. attacked Iran.
• In response to escalating tensions and recent strikes in Yemen, S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered reinforcements of American fighter jets in the Middle East to bolster naval assets in the region. The Pentagon did not specify which aircraft were being deployed, but according to anonymous officials cited by Reuters, at least four B-2 bombers have been relocated to a joint U.S.-UK base on Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean. The B-2 Spirit is a long-range, radar-evading aircraft capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear payloads. Among its arsenal is the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a 30,000-pound “bunker-buster” bomb designed to destroy deeply buried or hardened targets. This capability is particularly significant in the context of Iran’s nuclear program, as key facilities like Natanz and Fordow are believed to be located underground.
• Experts note that this location is close enough to support operations in either Yemen or Iran. Diego Garcia, a key military base, serves as an ideal staging ground for operations against the Houthis or, if necessary, Iran. This redeployment has increased the number of U.S. aircraft carriers in the Middle East to two, underscoring the seriousness of the situation and the U.S. commitment to countering threats in the region.

Global Jihad

• The “International Union of Muslim Scholars” (IUMS) issued a fatwa calling for Jihad against Israel’s activities in Gaza: “The necessity of armed Jihad in Palestine. We call for imposing a siege against the occupation by land, sea, and air, emphasizing the need for immediate military intervention by Islamic nations and support for Palestinian resistance militarily, financially, and politically. Normalization with the occupation is prohibited.”
• This statement represents a call for Muslim nations to go to war against Israel—distinct from recurring incitement or condemnations of Israeli actions. This is a direct religious command to fight Israel, similar in nature to the 1996 fatwa issued by Osama bin Laden calling for jihad against the United States and Israel.

International

• On April 3, 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Budapest, Hungary, where he met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.During this visit, Orbán announced Hungary’s intention to withdraw from the International Criminal Court (ICC), criticizing the court as having become overly politicized, particularly in light of its recent actions against Israeli officials.Hungary’s move to exit the ICC marks it as the first European Union member state to do so.
• On April 3, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he had spoken with Prime Minister Netanyahu and indicated that Netanyahu might visit the United States in the near future, possibly as soon as the following week.
• The Hind Rajab Foundation, an organization that files complaints against Israeli soldiers involved in the war, announced it would appeal to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague to issue an arrest warrant for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This move follows Netanyahu’s visit to Hungary. The foundation declared its intention to request that European airspace authorities deny Netanyahu overflight permissions and called on all European nations to uphold international law and not provide a haven for “war criminals.”
• On April 1st, Nicaragua announced its withdrawal from the lawsuit filed against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague—a case originally initiated by South Africa in response to the war in Gaza.
• Amit Susana, a former hostage who was released as part of the prisoner exchange deal after being held in Gaza for 55 days, has been awarded the U.S. Secretary of State’s “Women of Courage” award. Susana bravely spoke publicly about the sexual assault she endured during captivity. She is now the second Israeli woman to receive the award. The honor was presented by former First Lady Melania Trump.
• Meanwhile, two senior Republicans—Senator Jim Risch and Congressman Brian Mast, chairs of the Senate and House Foreign Affairs Committees—issued a stern warning to the UN Human Rights Council. In a letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, they threatened sanctions if the council proceeds with plans to establish a new investigative body targeting Israel. The letter warned that any state or UN body that supports this mechanism would face the same consequences that were imposed on the ICC during the Trump administration.

הפוסט Israel Weekly War Summary Week #78 |March 30-April 5 ,2025 הופיע לראשונה ב-IDSF.

Strategic Assessment 2025 | The Year of Opportunity

Toward a Secure and Stabilized Middle East

Crafting an endgame to the war

And Strengthening the Israeli-American Alliance

Israel’s Defense and Security Forum (IDSF)

Executive Summary

Come Spring 2025, the United States, Israel, and the region are entering into a new phase in the war in the Middle East by crafting an endgame, tackling destabilizing actors and working on ushering in a new era of peace. Israel’s significant achievements in this war create new opportunities to tackle Iran’s terror project head-on, end the war in Gaza, take advantage of the new political reality in Lebanon, and work on fundamentally changing the alliance map in the Middle East by promoting an interest-based peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

American leadership is key to achieving these goals. Iran – siding with Russia, China, and North Korea – is continuing to strive toward nuclear weapons while reaching record levels of uranium enrichment and missile development. Iran poses a grave threat to the US national security and American homeland, and is the primary destabilizing actor in the Middle East.

While still dangerous, Iran is also unprecedentedly weak. In the aftermath of the October 7 attacks, Iran and its “frontal defense” – the regional proxies of Hamas, Hezbollah, Assad, Houthis, and assorted Iraqi militias, have been significantly undermined by bold Israeli and American action. That also includes Iran’s air defenses.

This is the time to deny Iran the capability to produce nuclear weapons. If the extreme Islamist regime refuses to give up this capability as a result of maximum economic pressure there is going to be a need for a bold, limited, pre-emptive American-Israeli-regional action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, that will not require “boots on the ground.” Such a swift action can end the current war, without provoking a new one.

Peace is the goal in Peace Through Strength: The collapse of the Shi’ite axis ushers in a new chapter in the region – the golden age of the Middle East. Previous efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia – indeed, the Muslim world as a whole – have been derailed by Iran’s attacks and mounting threats. Regional Arab countries have preferred to cautiously side with Iran, fearing reprisals from Iran. Removing the Iranian obstacle can open the floodgates to peace, prosperity, and expanded economic opportunity.

It is also vital to further collapse the Shi’ite Axis by taking advantage of the fall of the Assad regime, the weakening of Hezbollah and anti-Iranian trends in the region, while minimizing Turkey’s Neo-Ottoman negative and growing sphere of influence. In Syria and beyond, the region risks the replacement of the Iran-backed Shi’ite Axis with a Turkish-backed Neo-Ottoman Axis with all of its implications. Israel should continue building on its special relationship with the Druze community in Syria and encourage relations with Kurds and other minorities in the region to further deepen its strategic depth.

Weakening Iran will also weaken anti-American, anti-Israeli governments across Latin America, in particular Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, who allows illegal drug trafficking to enrich Iran’s treasury, Hezbollah’s narcoterrorism and terror financing activity, criminal syndicate activities and mass migration into the United States.

In the Gaza theater, releasing all hostages while creating a new reality in Gaza without Hamas is the key to ending the war and prevent the next war. President Trump’s plan to encourage willful migration out of Gaza has already made headways, and it is vital to have the cooperation of Egypt and welcoming countries around the world to make it happen. Neither the Palestinian Authority nor Hamas are in a position to be part of Gaza’s future, given their record and commitment to terrorism.

Any peace plan with the Palestinians must come from a position of strength. That includes recognizing Israel’s fundamental national security needs, putting the Palestinian Authority on notice, and eliminating Hamas. The Arab world may be involved in the Palestinians’ future, but must be cognizant of the inherent dangers of bestowing the Palestinians with strategic territory and unchecked access to munition.

In this assessment, we lay out our case for the next steps in the war and our recommendations for the Israeli decision-makers, the American administration and policy-makers around the free world.

2025: The Year of Opportunity

Spring 2025 presents Israel with both formidable challenges and a rare strategic opportunity. The aftermath of the October 7 Hamas attack has unfolded across multiple fronts, testing Israel’s resilience as never before. Yet, from this turmoil has emerged a historic moment to advance security and stability — for Israel, the region, and the free world.

This opportunity stems from two main sources:

1. Renewed U.S-Israel Strategic Alignment

The revitalization of the U.S-Israel alliance under President Trump has reinvigorated coordination on key strategic fronts. From the defeat of Hamas and dismantling of Iranian proxies to confronting anti-Semitism and opposing delegitimization of Israel, the two governments are operating with rare clarity and shared purpose. Critically, this alignment does not hinge on untenable political concessions such as a two-state framework, which has lost relevance in today’s realities.

This partnership is already yielding benefits:

Palestinian Arena: The U.S. provides legitimacy and backing for Israel’s campaign to dismantle Hamas, return hostages, and explore post-war alternatives to the Palestinian Authority. President Trump’s plan for voluntary emigration from Gaza will also have a significant impact on the region’s security.

Regional Front: Renewed American deterrence has emboldened moderate actors, weakened Iranian proxies, and opened space for strategic gains — chief among them, halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions and forging new regional alignments. The foundation is being laid for expanded normalization, energy and infrastructure cooperation, and joint regional development.

Rogue international actors: The U.S. is taking a proactive role in countering hostile international institutions such as the ICC and biased UN agencies. In parallel, Washington is challenging the Iran-China-Russia axis through strategic engagement and deterrence, aiming to isolate Iran and curtail its influence.

2. Israeli Strength, Society, and National Resolve

The resilience of Israeli society, the IDF’s operational performance, and the renewed national ethos have created a second pillar of opportunity. From battlefield courage to home front solidarity, October 7 awakened a powerful spirit of unity and resolve.

To capitalize on this momentum, internal cohesion must be reinforced. Social rifts, mistrust in institutions, and fragmentation threaten to undermine long-term gains. National responsibility must be shared — including broadening participation in military and national service among all sectors, with emphasis on the Haredi community and national or police service in the Arab community. The special relationship with the Druze community must be strengthened as a key national component of unity.

At the same time, settlement policy should be recognized as a strategic asset. Encouraging Jewish settlement — particularly in border and rural areas, such as the north, Gaza envelope, Jordan Valley, and around Area C — serves both security and demographic goals. Strategic development of these regions, including new communities and infrastructure, can strengthen their resilience and the national stance facing security challenges, and reward those on the front lines.

American Leadership and its Role in Securing and Stabilizing the Middle East.

Come Spring 2025, the Middle East finds itself in an exceptionally challenging and rapidly changing security environment. As the war of aggression initiated on October 7, 2023 by Hamas against Israel, with support of Iran and its proxies, is ongoing, the ripple effects of this regional turmoil are strongly felt across the globe. Russia, China, and North Korea are the direct beneficiaries of Iran’s aggression, circumventing American sanctions by developing an independent petro-economy, sending weapons and manpower to Ukraine, and providing each other with a blank check to continue undermining the West and the American-led global order. However, Israel’s strong retaliation turned the tables around, and at this point, Iran and its proxies and allies seem to be on the losing side.

Attacked on multiple fronts, and after having suffered the most atrocious massacre against the Jewish people since the holocaust, Israel is now gaining momentum Israel is methodically striking the foundations of the Shi’ite axis on its borders. Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon have suffered heavy blows, Yemen’s Houthis keep challenging Israel and endangering maritime trade in the Red Sea and are paying a heavy price, and Iran’s air defenses have been significantly undermined. These trembling foundations have contributed significantly to the fall of Syria’s Bashar Al Assad regime by rebel groups dominated by HTS’ Islamists, who are now posturing as moderates. This also ushers in new opportunities with the Druze community, the Kurds and other minorities to further enhance Israel’s strategic depth and interests in the region, while strengthening the US’ position as well.

The Current Crossroads Presents a Historic Opportunity to Checkmate Iran. This Way, the United States, together with Israel, can Further Collapse the Shi’ite Axis of Evil, Hamper Russia and China’s Efforts to change the world order, and Usher in a New Era of Peace and Stability in the Middle East, While Protecting the American Homeland.

American values and interests have always sided with advancing stability and prosperity to create a more secure world. However, the radical axis of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea have been working tirelessly to undermine this American-led global order. As Israel is making methodical progress against Iran and its proxies, Ukraine is still struggling to fend off Russian forces from its territory. Meanwhile, China is directly benefitting from Russian and Iranian oil. China now purchases an estimated 45% of Russian oil and over 90% of Iran’s oil.

Iran is the main destabilizing force in the Middle East. Ever since the signing of the JCPOA – the “Iran Nuclear Deal” in 2015 by the Obama administration, Iran has been investing tens of billions of dollars in propagating regional terrorism, supporting Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Iraqi Shiite militias and Assad, arming Palestinians in Judea and Samaria, and working around the clock to build the capability to carry out terrorist attacks around the world, including on American and European soil.

Iran is officially designated as a state sponsor of terrorism by the United States’ Department of State. Iran has been involved in an assassination attempt against President Trump, and have targeted senior American officials, the Saudi ambassador in Washington, and other American and Europeans who they deem a threat.

Over the past four years, the Biden administration did underscore that it will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, yet the removal of sanctions, the unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets, removal of the Houthis from the list of designated terrorist organizations, and the efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, have effectively greenlit Iran to enrich uranium and advance further toward nuclear weapons with relative impunity.

Now, the Trump administration has renewed the maximum pressure campaign (MPC) and is facing a choice on how to tackle the Iranian threat. The President has offered Iran with an opportunity for negotiations, that has so far been rejected by Tehran. The United States and Israel have made it clear that a nuclear Iran is out of the question and is not an acceptable scenario.

The World Cannot Afford to Allow Iran to have the capability to Obtain Nuclear Weapons. This Must Be Stopped At All Cost.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, its President, its IRGC commander and a host of Iranian senior officials have openly declared their commitment to destroy Israel. Supreme Leader Khamenei said Israel is a “cancerous tumor that needs to be removed”, and “the destruction of Israel is essential to bring justice to the region.”

Iran has always aspired to instill its radical hegemony around the region, and the world. It cries “death to Israel, death to America”.

In parallel, Iran is blackmailing Arab countries into strengthening their ties with Tehran, due to a lack of better options. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, after having cut ties with Iran, have resorted to reopening their embassies in Tehran and reinstated their ambassadors. Not coincidentally, Saudi Arabia and Iran have also signed a deal with Chinese mediation in March of 2023, as the vacuum left by the absence of American leadership indicated that they had little choice but to assuage the regional “bully”, the regime in Tehran.

President Trump’s bold decision to exit the nuclear deal and the administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign have been proven effective, yet insufficient to completely halt Iran’s nuclear aspirations. A document issued by the United States Director of National Intelligence (DNI) on September 26, 2024, showed that “Iran now has enough fissile material to make more than a dozen nuclear weapons.” Iran has not yet decided to build a nuclear weapon, yet it has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce one, if it so chooses.”

As per the International Atomic Energy Agency’s report from February 2025 Iran had accumulated at least 274.8kg of 60% enriched uranium, and 606.8kg of 20% enriched uranium. Iran is installing new cascades of advanced centrifuges in its underground nuclear facilities, which allows it to enrich faster than ever before – against any and all international commitment, and despite warnings of the UN. It has now over 11,700 advanced centrifuges in its Natanz and Fordow sites. From the moment it makes the decision, Iran will only need 1-2 weeks to reach the weapon-grade 90% enriched uranium for its first nuclear device. This means: zero breakout time.

Allowing Iran to have the capability to nuclearize, will eventually throw the region into disarray, provide Iran with a nuclear umbrella to keep wreaking havoc in the Middle East and beyond, threaten Israel with more attacks, and undermine the stability of Saudi Arabia and other GCC members. Iran will have winds in its sails to carry out more terrorist attacks around the world. Lacking a better choice, the region will be thrown into a nuclear armament race. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and other countries in the region could go nuclear as well, to balance out the Iranian nuclear threat on their doorstep.

The Middle East will never be the same again.

Moreover, Russia and China will be the direct beneficiaries of that situation, having an important ally with nuclear weapons that helps promoting their radical vision of challenging the American-led global order. All of the international community will bend to Iran’s Aspirations.

With the Assad Regime Down, Iran Could Conclude that to Safeguard Its Regime, It Has No Other Choice but to Break Out to a Nuclear Bomb.

The past few years have taught Iran that its regime is under threat. Inflation is at an all-time high, with the Iranian currency, the Rial, plummeting to a staggering all-time low of almost 900,000 rial to USD. Unemployment is going through the roof, there are shortages of electricity and gas and the new American sanctions have significantly hampered its ability to trade oil – its most valuable source of income – and welcome companies from Europe and around the world to operate in its territory and do business with Iranian companies.

In parallel, Iran sees through the ill fate of regimes that gave up on nuclear weapons. Syria’s Assad had developed a nuclear program, that was eliminated by Israel in 2007. Ukraine had given up on its nuclear program as part of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, only to be completely exposed to Russian aggression and invasion. Iraq’s Saddam Hussein had developed nuclear weapons, a project that was eliminated by an Israeli airstrike in 1981. One could only imagine the complexity the United States and its allies would have dealt with in liberating Kuwait in the 1991 Gulf War, had Saddam had nuclear capabilities. Libya’s Ghadaffi suffered a fatal fate with a violent uprising in its country, after having rescinded his nuclear aspirations.

In contrast, North Korea’s regime and others have been relatively stable, having equipped themselves with nuclear weapons, despite their oppressive nature.

Iran could well conclude that given the clear dissatisfaction among its people, and the loss of its proxies, it has no choice but to break out to a nuclear bomb as soon as possible, thereby safeguarding its regime.

The Conditions to Counter Iran Could Not Be More Favorable. Iran is Now More Dangerous Than Ever Before, But Also More Exposed.

First, Iran is now weaker than ever before. Iran’s national security was based on a strong military, fostering its proxies around the region as a “frontal defense”, and acquiring strong air defenses.

Now, Hamas and Hezbollah, designed to rain down rockets and carry out ground invasions against Israel in case of an Israeli attack on Iran, have been practically decimated. Syria’s Assad has fallen. Iran is left with very few friends in the region.

Next, Iran’s air defenses were significantly damaged according to reports, following Israel’s two strikes on Iranian military facilities this year, as a response to Iran’s barrages of missiles against it.